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Polyclawd

AI-powered prediction market paper trading bot by Virtuoso Crypto.

Automated signal detection, position sizing, and portfolio management across Polymarket, Kalshi, and cross-platform arbitrage.

🔗 Live Dashboard: virtuosocrypto.com/polyclawd 🔗 MCP Server: virtuosocrypto.com/polyclawd/mcp (140 tools)

Open Positions

How It Works

Every 10 minutes, the system scans prediction markets for mispriced contracts, runs signals through an 11-stage pipeline, and auto-manages a $10K paper portfolio.

Market Data → Signal Detection → 11-Stage Pipeline → Kelly Sizing → Position Open
                                                                          ↓
Resolution ← Watchdog (5min) ← Re-evaluation ← Price Monitoring ← Portfolio

Signal Pipeline

Signal → Confidence → Edge → Archetype Blocklist → NO Prob Floor
→ Kelly Sizing → CV Kelly → Time Decay → Volume Spike
→ Score Velocity → Archetype Boost → Correlation Cap → TRADE
Stage What it does
Archetype Blocklist price_above (0% WR) and sports_winner (0% WR) blocked entirely
NO Prob Floor Skip markets where NO <35% implied — too efficient to fade
Bootstrap Kelly Seeded 57% WR + 1/8 Kelly until 20 resolved trades
CV Kelly Haircut Monte Carlo uncertainty adjustment (post-bootstrap)
Time Decay Becker-calibrated 28-cell lookup (7 durations × 4 volume buckets)
Volume Spike 3x+ = spike (+10%), 10x+ = mega (+20%)
Score Velocity Alpha score delta for crypto archetypes [0.7x–1.3x]
Correlation Cap 6 groups, max 3 positions per group

Correlation Groups

Group Examples Max
Politics US elections, policy 3
Geopolitical Foreign elections, wars 3
Culture Oscars, entertainment 3
Sports NBA, NFL, soccer 3
Crypto BTC/ETH/SOL price 3
Weather Temperature markets 3

Data Sources

Active

Source Type Use Case
Polymarket Prediction market Main execution venue — crypto, politics, weather, entertainment
Kalshi Prediction market Market overlap detection, entertainment props
Manifold Play money market Leading indicator (moves first), election divergence
Metaculus Forecasting Expert forecasts vs market prices
ESPN Sports odds Fallback for Vegas when circuit-broken
Open-Meteo Weather (92 ensemble members) Temperature forecasting — ICON, GEFS, GEM models
Pirate Weather Weather (GEFS+HRRR+ECMWF) Multi-model weather ensemble source
Tomorrow.io Weather (proprietary AI) HyperCast AI model for weather ensemble
WeatherAPI.com Weather (station blend) Station-based ML blend for weather ensemble
Wikipedia Election polling Polling data scraper for election markets

Weather Ensemble

4-source probabilistic forecasting with calibrated probability distributions:

Source Models Cost
Open-Meteo Ensemble 92 members (ICON, GEFS, GEM) Free
Pirate Weather GEFS + GFS + HRRR + ECMWF Free tier
Tomorrow.io Proprietary AI (HyperCast) Free tier
WeatherAPI.com Station blend + ML Free tier
  • Normal/Student-t CDF for real probability calculations (not hardcoded buckets)
  • Source disagreement >3°F auto-widens distribution (fat tail penalty)
  • Multi-day response caching — 1 API call per city returns all dates
  • Same-day re-evaluation every 5min — auto-closes if forecast shifts against position
  • 15 cities: NYC, London, Buenos Aires, Wellington, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, São Paulo, Toronto, Seoul, Seattle, Chicago, Paris, Sydney, Tokyo

Election Prediction

  • Wikipedia polling scraper with recency weighting (30d=1.0x, 90d=0.7x, >90d=0.4x)
  • Manifold vs Polymarket divergence (>10% = 1.3x boost, 5-10% = 1.15x)
  • Incumbency advantage as systematic NO thesis (~70% win rate globally)

API Resilience

  • Circuit breaker — 5 failures → 30min cooldown per source
  • Staleness tags — flags data from degraded sources
  • ESPN fallback — Vegas endpoints auto-fallback when circuit-broken

Architecture

polyclawd/
├── api/                # FastAPI app (140+ endpoints)
│   ├── main.py         # App factory, router registration
│   ├── routes/         # 6 domain routers
│   └── services/       # Business logic
├── signals/            # Trading engine
│   ├── paper_portfolio.py      # Core engine + 11-stage pipeline
│   ├── weather_ensemble.py     # 4-source probabilistic forecasting
│   ├── weather_scanner.py      # Polymarket weather market discovery
│   ├── election_polls.py       # Wikipedia polling scraper
│   ├── cross_platform_elections.py  # Cross-platform divergence
│   ├── cv_kelly.py             # CV Kelly uncertainty adjustment
│   ├── strike_probability.py   # Price-to-Strike probability
│   ├── alpha_score_tracker.py  # Score velocity tracking
│   ├── resilience.py           # Circuit breaker + source health
│   ├── ic_tracker.py           # Information Coefficient tracking
│   └── calibrator.py           # Signal calibration + source weights
├── mcp/                # MCP server (auto-discovered from OpenAPI)
│   ├── server.py       # stdio transport
│   └── http_server.py  # FastMCP HTTP (port 8421)
├── static/             # Dashboard + auth
│   ├── portfolio.html  # Paper trading dashboard
│   ├── analysis.html   # Signal analysis
│   └── how-it-works.html  # Pipeline visualization
├── odds/               # Edge math + cross-platform
├── tests/              # 300+ tests
├── scripts/            # Utilities
├── docs/               # Documentation
└── config/             # Configuration

Data Flow

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                         DATA SOURCES                             │
├───────────┬──────────┬──────────┬──────────┬───────────┬────────┤
│Polymarket │ Manifold │  ESPN    │ Metaculus │ Weather×4 │ Polls  │
│  Kalshi   │          │          │          │ (ensemble)│ (Wiki) │
└─────┬─────┴────┬─────┴────┬─────┴────┬─────┴─────┬─────┴───┬────┘
      └──────────┴──────────┴────┬─────┴───────────┴─────────┘
                                 ▼
              ┌──────────────────────────────────┐
              │   API RESILIENCE LAYER           │
              │   Circuit breaker + staleness    │
              └──────────────┬───────────────────┘
                             ▼
              ┌──────────────────────────────────┐
              │   SIGNAL PIPELINE (11 stages)    │
              │   Confidence → Edge → Blocklist  │
              │   → Kelly → Time Decay → Vol     │
              │   → Score Velocity → Corr Cap    │
              └──────────────┬───────────────────┘
                             ▼
              ┌──────────────────────────────────┐
              │   PAPER PORTFOLIO ENGINE         │
              │   Bootstrap Kelly · $10K bank    │
              │   6 correlation groups · 10 max  │
              └──────────────┬───────────────────┘
                             ▼
              ┌──────────────────────────────────┐
              │   WATCHDOG (every 5-10min)       │
              │   Resolution · Re-eval · IC      │
              └──────────────┬───────────────────┘
                             ▼
              ┌──────────────────────────────────┐
              │   MCP SERVER (140 tools)         │
              │   + Dashboard + Discord alerts   │
              └──────────────────────────────────┘

MCP Server

140 tools auto-discovered from OpenAPI spec — no manual tool list to maintain.

https://virtuosocrypto.com/polyclawd/mcp

Add an API endpoint → restart MCP → tool appears automatically. Tools are named by path: /api/signals/weather → polyclawd_signals_weather.

Operations

Infrastructure

  • VPS: Hetzner (ssh vps / 5.223.63.4)
  • Service: polyclawd-api.service (systemd, port 8420, 2 uvicorn workers)
  • MCP: port 8421, proxied via nginx
  • Reverse proxy: nginx at virtuosocrypto.com/polyclawd
  • Database: SQLite storage/shadow_trades.db (WAL mode)
  • Test suite: 300+ tests

Watchdog (v8)

Runs every 5 minutes via /etc/cron.d/polyclawd-watchdog:

Cycle Frequency What it does
Health check 5min 3 retries → restart if unhealthy
Resolution 5min CLOB → Gamma fallback → force-resolve 24h+ past expiry
Weather re-eval 5min Fresh ensemble data, auto-close on edge flip
Signal scan 10min Mispriced category + weather → process_signals()
Alpha snapshot 10min Score velocity per crypto symbol
IC + Calibration 30min Spearman IC, calibration curves, source weights
Arena snapshot 6h Leaderboard tracking

Quick Start

# Local development
cd ~/Desktop/polyclawd
uvicorn api.main:app --host 127.0.0.1 --port 8420

# VPS
ssh vps
sudo systemctl status polyclawd-api
sudo systemctl restart polyclawd-api
tail -50 /var/log/polyclawd-watchdog.log

API Docs

Full OpenAPI spec: https://virtuosocrypto.com/polyclawd/api/openapi.json

Key endpoint groups: /api/signals/*, /api/portfolio/*, /api/edge/*, /api/vegas/*, /api/espn/*, /api/polyrouter/*, /api/markets/*

License

Proprietary — Virtuoso Crypto

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Polymarket Trading Bot - AI-powered prediction market trading system

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