Group_1_Spending-prediction-model

MACHINE LEARNING PREDICTION MODEL USING LINEAR REGRESSION.

Case Scenario:- TANZANIA TOURISM SECTOR

PROBLEM STATEMENT

The Tanzanian tourism sector plays a significant role in the Tanzanian economy, contributing about 17% to the country’s GDP and 25% of all foreign exchange revenues. The sector, which provides direct employment for more than 600,000 people and up to 2 million people indirectly, generated approximately $2.4 billion in 2018 according to government statistics. Tanzania received a record 1.1 million international visitor arrivals in 2014, mostly from Europe, the US and Africa. Tanzania is the only country in the world which has allocated more than 25% of its total area for wildlife, national parks, and protected areas.There are 16 national parks in Tanzania, 28 game reserves, 44 game-controlled areas, two marine parks and one conservation area.

OBJECTIVE:

The dataset describes 6476 rows of up-to-date information on tourist expenditure collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Tanzania. The dataset was collected to gain a better understanding of the status of the tourism sector and provide an instrument that will enable sector growth. Hence the objective of this project is to develop a machine learning model to predict what a tourist will spend when visiting Tanzania. The model can be used by different tour operators and the Tanzania Tourism Board to automatically help tourists across the world estimate their expenditure before visiting Tanzania.

DATA DESCRIPTION

The dataset describes 6476 rows of up-to-date information on tourist expenditure collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in Tanzania.The dataset was collected to gain a better understanding of the status of the tourism sector and provide an instrument that will enable sector growth. The survey covers seven departure points, namely: Julius Nyerere International Airport, Kilimanjaro International Airport, Abeid Amani Karume International Airport, and the Namanga, Tunduma, Mtukula and Manyovu border points.

KEY INSIGHTS/OBSERVATION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

From the EDA which shows that most tourist patronise wildlife activities followed by beech tourism. The government of tanzania needs to look into other activities to find out why tourist are not patronizing other activities such as diving and sport fishing, mountian climbing, birdwatching,business and cultural tourism which has gresat potentials if leverage.

NOTABLE INSIGHTS FROM THE RESEARCH

1. Majority of travellers are mostly of ages 24 to 64 and these are the same age groups with the highest spending rates among the tourists.

2. the highest spending tourists came from the United Kingdom.

3. mode of payments were mostly cash payments and looking at the exchange rates of various currencies against that of tanzania, it is recommended that the authorities discourages the use of cash for tourist in the near future. this can be done by making arrangements for a credit card with a tanzanian financial body during the visa application stage to as to easily access the card upon arival.

4. the tourists spent more nights in tanzania mainland other than zanziba, going forward, more accomodation facilities should be provided and situated in tanzania mainland. zanziba shpuld also be made attaractive and comfortable for tourists too.

5. Tourists from the united states of america visited Tanzania more than tourists from anywhere else

6. A lot of tourists seem to travel alone and very little out of the many tend to travel with children

7. The main reason for most tourists coming to Tanzania is mostly for leisure and holiday reasons

8. It is observed that the united kingdom has the most spending tourist, special offer (2% of total spending) may be waved to tourist from the UK to attract more tourist from uk to Tanzania as tyhey keep spending more.

9. The zanzibar island holds great potentials in tourist but from the insights generated, less nights (20%) are spend there compare to the conventional mainland(80%), investment should be channel towards the zanzibar espeically in the hospitality and leisure sector as good return on investment will better be obtained from there.

10. The most profitable aspects of tourism include wildlife tourism, beach tourism, hunting tourism, cultural tourism, conference toursim and business tourism respectively; cultural tourism is best for investment, this is because when more is invested in that sector (especially the cultural attair aspect), there will be more revenue genrated through the sales of theses products, the returns can then be use to improve the other aspects of tourism as as a whole in tghe country.

11. Tourist mostly go for the unpackaged food as insighted from the visualizations above, there is need for improvement in the culinary and caterng servies of the sector as in employing the best chefs, online promotion of the food and cooking process which aashould be hygienic, inviting and colourful.

12. After deep analysis, it is observed that the most preferred mode of payment by the tourists is cash, which places them on a high risk of getting robbed. We recommend that a limit is given for the possession of cash on one's self, to avoid instances of robbery and pick-pocketing. we notice that the country has a huge tourism potential hence, more material investment into the tourism sector can generate good foreign exchange earnings to the country.