Notch Protocol

Where predictions are permanent.

Notch is a permissionless protocol for verifiable on-chain predictions. Predictors commit cryptographic predictions about asset prices, build verifiable accuracy scores, and sell tokenized access to their future predictions.

No one can lie about their track record.

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How It Works

1. COMMIT    →  Hash your prediction + salt, submit on-chain. Nobody can see it.
2. REVEAL    →  After a delay, publish the prediction. Contract verifies the hash.
3. RESOLVE   →  Oracle delivers the price. Contract compares to prediction.
4. SCORE     →  Your Notch Score updates: accuracy + calibration + consistency + volume.
5. TRADE     →  Sell access to your future predictions as tokenized Notch Passes (ERC-1155).

The Notch Score

Not just accuracy. Calibration. When you say 78% confident and you're right 78% of the time, that's a perfect Brier score.

NotchScore = 0.40 × Accuracy + 0.25 × Calibration + 0.20 × Consistency + 0.15 × Volume

Accuracy    = EMA of correct predictions (decay 0.95)
Calibration = 1 - BrierScore (how well confidence matches reality)
Consistency = 1 / (1 + variance of rolling accuracy)
Volume      = log(predictions) / log(max) (statistical significance)

Contracts

Contract	Description
PredictionEngine.sol	Commit-reveal-resolve cycle with oracle integration
NotchScore.sol	Immutable on-chain scoring (EMA + Brier + Welford)
NotchPassMarket.sol	ERC-1155 prediction access passes with marketplace
ChainlinkAdapter.sol	Chainlink AggregatorV3 oracle adapter
PythAdapter.sol	Pyth Network oracle adapter
DualOracle.sol	Primary + fallback oracle with staleness detection
NotchToken.sol	$NOTCH ERC-20 (1B fixed supply, burnable)
StakingModule.sol	Stake $NOTCH to predict (anti-sybil, slashing)
Treasury.sol	Fee collection with 60/25/15 split (buyback/rewards/reserve)
NotchIndex.sol	Bundled top-N predictor indices
AssetScoreTracker.sol	Per-asset accuracy and calibration tracking
TokenVesting.sol	Linear vesting with cliff for team allocation
MerkleAirdrop.sol	Merkle proof-based token claim for early users

Security

• ReentrancyGuard on all contracts that transfer ETH
• Pausable on core contracts (emergency stop)
• 180 tests including fuzz tests for scoring math
• Audit pending

Build

# Install Foundry
curl -L https://foundry.paradigm.xyz | bash
foundryup

# Build
cd contracts
forge build

# Test
forge test

# Test with verbosity
forge test -vvv

Architecture

PredictionEngine ──→ IOracle (ChainlinkAdapter / PythAdapter / DualOracle)
       │
       ├──→ NotchScore (immutable scoring)
       ├──→ StakingModule (stake $NOTCH to predict)
       │
NotchPassMarket ──→ ERC-1155 passes + marketplace
       │
       └──→ Treasury (fee distribution: 60% buyback, 25% rewards, 15% reserve)

Chain

Arbitrum One (mainnet) / Arbitrum Sepolia (testnet). Chain-agnostic contracts — no Arbitrum-specific precompiles.

SDK

The TypeScript SDK provides read/write helpers for all protocol contracts:

import { NotchClient } from "@notch-protocol/sdk";

const client = new NotchClient({
  addresses: { predictionEngine, notchScore, notchPassMarket },
  chainId: 42161,
  rpcUrl: "https://arb1.arbitrum.io/rpc",
});

// Read a predictor's score
const score = await client.getScore("0x...");
const breakdown = await client.getScoreBreakdown("0x...");

// Prepare a commitment
const salt = NotchClient.generateSalt();
const hash = NotchClient.computeCommitHash(predictor, input, salt);

License

Business Source License 1.1 (BUSL-1.1). See LICENSE.

After 2 years from initial deployment, the license converts to MIT.

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Built on Arbitrum. Powered by Chainlink. Every notch counts.

notch.finance