PR #565: Wire batted-ball profile into hits + total_bases enrichment#434
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…otal_bases enrichment - New signal block in prop_enrichment_layer.py after Defense OAA section - hits: LD rate → BABIP boost; GB heavy → infield-hit bonus - total_bases: FB rate + pull rate → XBH upside; GB heavy → drag - _bb_profile_adj flows through adjustment dampener (±4pp max) - bb_profile added to layer_audit JSONB for observability"
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Code Review
This pull request adds a batted-ball profile signal to the enrichment layer for 'hits' and 'total_bases' props, using Statcast data to adjust probabilities based on ground ball, fly ball, line drive, and pull rates. Review feedback highlights an inefficient local import that should be moved outside the loop and identifies a numerical inconsistency in the fly ball rate average used for total bases calculations, which may introduce bias.
| _b_id_bb = prop.get("player_id") or prop.get("mlbam_id") | ||
| if _b_id_bb: | ||
| try: | ||
| from statcast_static_layer import get_batter_batted_ball as _gbb # noqa: PLC0415 |
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Importing get_batter_batted_ball inside the per-prop loop is inefficient. Although Python caches module imports, the lookup overhead occurs for every prop of type hits or total_bases. It is better to move this import to the top of the enrich_props function, especially since statcast_static_layer is already being imported multiple times in this function.
| # MLB avg air_rate ~0.38 (includes LD + FB) | ||
| if _fb_r > 0: | ||
| _bb_adj += (_fb_r - 0.22) / 0.08 * 0.030 # FB avg ~22% |
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There is a numerical inconsistency between the comments and the adjustment logic for total_bases. Line 1765 states that the average air_rate (LD + FB) is ~0.38. Given that the LD average is cited as 0.22 (line 1755), this implies a FB average of 0.16. However, line 1767 uses 0.22 as the center for the FB adjustment calculation and includes a comment stating FB avg ~22%. This internal contradiction between the air_rate and fb_rate averages will likely result in a systematic bias in the calculated adjustment for league-average hitters.
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PR #565 — Batted-ball profile signal for
hits+total_basesWhat
Wires
get_batter_batted_ball()(already loaded frombatted-ball.csvinstatcast_static_layer.py) intoprop_enrichment_layer.pyas a live adjustment signal.Signal design
hitsprops:(ld_rate − 0.22) / 0.06 × 3pp(league avg ~22%)+1pp per 10pp above 48%total_basesprops:(fb_rate − 0.22) / 0.08 × 3pp(pull_rate − 0.38) / 0.10 × 2ppCaps: ±4pp per prop; runs through adjustment dampener (geometric decay with other same-direction signals).
Wiring
prop_type in ("hits", "total_bases") and is_batter_prop_bb_profile_adjadded to dampener_all_adjslist"bb_profile"added to_layer_auditJSONBNo statcast_static_layer changes needed
get_batter_batted_ball()has been in the layer since day 1 — this PR just calls it.Summary by cubic
Adds a batted-ball profile signal to enrich batter
hitsandtotal_basesprops, using GB/FB/LD/pull rates to better model BABIP and XBH upside. Adjustments are capped at ±4pp and flow through the existing dampener with audit visibility.hitsandtotal_bases._bb_profile_adjadded to the dampener andbb_profileadded tolayer_audit.get_batter_batted_ball(); no changes to the static layer.Written for commit 629a099. Summary will update on new commits.