聴牌確率 is not showing 100% when it is 聴牌形

[Starry-Miracle]

May I know if it is a bug? 向聴数 is displaying 聴牌 but 聴牌確率 is not showing 100%
Tested on web appuri 麻雀何切るシミュレーター version 0.9.4

E.g. 14枚
東一局0本場 東家 3巡目 123566789m45699s
向聴数 聴牌 (一般形: 聴牌, 七対子: 4向聴, 国士無双: 9向聴)

打牌	有効牌	期待値	和了確率	聴牌確率
6m	2種7枚	4830点	56.27%	69.79%
9m	2種7枚	2639点	56.27%	73.36%
5m	2種4枚	1660点	40.30%	56.27%

E.g. 13枚
東一局0本場 東家 3巡目 12356789m45699s
自摸数16回
山の枚数123
向聴数 聴牌 (一般形: 聴牌, 七対子: 5向聴, 国士無双: 9向聴)
探索した手牌 3手
計算時間 36μs

有効牌	期待値	和了確率	聴牌確率
2種7枚	5036点	58.47%	58.47%

[Starry-Miracle]

Also it is still showing over 100% (100.83% in this xample) in the cpp build (I believe it is old bug due to precision?)

root@e7d601a98567:/mahjong-cpp/build/install/bin# ./test_ev_score
[2024-12-31 14:01:56.225] [info] Uradora table file loaded. (path: /mahjong-cpp/build/install/bin/uradora.bin)
[2024-12-31 14:01:56.427] [info] Table file loaded. (path: /mahjong-cpp/build/install/bin/suits_table.bin, size: 1943751)
[2024-12-31 14:01:56.441] [info] Table file loaded. (path: /mahjong-cpp/build/install/bin/honors_table.bin, size: 77751)
=== Config ===
min turn: 1
max turn: 17
wall tiles: 0
extra: 1
shanten type: 7
reddora: true
uradora: true
shanten down: true
tegawari: true
riichi: false
=== Round ===
[ルール]
赤ドラ有り: 有り
喰い断有り: 有り
[場]
東1局0本場
供託棒: 0本
ドラ表示牌: 1z

=== Player ===
手牌: 123456789m34677s
副露牌:
自風: 1z

=== Info ===
shanten: 0
time: 0 ms
searched: 282 hands
=== Necessary Tiles ===
1m type: 5, sum: 17, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 1m(3) 4m(3) 7m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
2m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 2m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
3m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 3m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
4m type: 4, sum: 14, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 4m(3) 7m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
5m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 5m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
6m type: 4, sum: 14, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 3m(3) 6m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
7m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 7m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
8m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 8m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
9m type: 5, sum: 17, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 3m(3) 6m(3) 9m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
3s type: 1, sum: 4, shanten: 0->0 tiles: 5s(4)
4s type: 8, sum: 27, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 1s(4) 2s(4) 3s(3) 4s(3) 5s(4) 6s(3) 7s(2) 8s(4)
6s type: 2, sum: 8, shanten: 0->0 tiles: 2s(4) 5s(4)
7s type: 7, sum: 23, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 2s(4) 3s(3) 4s(3) 5s(4) 6s(3) 7s(2) 8s(4)

=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn 1m 2m 3m 4m 5m 6m 7m 8m 9m 3s 4s 6s 7s
1 92.57% 81.41% 81.41% 88.16% 81.36% 88.16% 81.41% 81.41% 92.57% 100.83% 98.63% 100.83% 97.19%
2 91.24% 79.34% 79.34% 86.45% 79.28% 86.45% 79.34% 79.34% 91.24% 100.83% 98.19% 100.83% 96.47%
3 89.67% 77.03% 77.03% 84.50% 76.98% 84.50% 77.03% 77.03% 89.67% 100.83% 97.60% 100.83% 95.57%
4 87.84% 74.47% 74.47% 82.28% 74.42% 82.28% 74.47% 74.47% 87.84% 100.83% 96.85% 100.83% 94.45%
5 85.68% 71.63% 71.63% 79.74% 71.59% 79.74% 71.63% 71.63% 85.68% 100.83% 95.86% 100.83% 93.05%
6 83.14% 68.48% 68.48% 76.84% 68.43% 76.84% 68.48% 68.48% 83.14% 100.83% 94.58% 100.83% 91.30%
7 80.16% 64.98% 64.98% 73.53% 64.94% 73.53% 64.98% 64.98% 80.16% 100.83% 92.91% 100.83% 89.13%
8 76.67% 61.09% 61.09% 69.76% 61.05% 69.76% 61.09% 61.09% 76.67% 100.83% 90.74% 100.83% 86.41%
9 72.56% 56.78% 56.78% 65.45% 56.74% 65.45% 56.78% 56.78% 72.56% 100.83% 87.92% 100.83% 83.02%
10 67.73% 51.99% 51.99% 60.53% 51.96% 60.53% 51.99% 51.99% 67.73% 100.83% 84.25% 100.83% 78.80%
11 62.06% 46.67% 46.67% 54.91% 46.65% 54.91% 46.67% 46.67% 62.06% 100.83% 79.47% 100.83% 73.53%
12 55.39% 40.77% 40.77% 48.50% 40.75% 48.50% 40.77% 40.77% 55.39% 100.83% 73.26% 100.83% 66.95%
13 47.56% 34.22% 34.22% 41.18% 34.20% 41.18% 34.22% 34.22% 47.56% 100.83% 65.17% 100.83% 58.75%
14 38.37% 26.95% 26.95% 32.82% 26.94% 32.82% 26.95% 26.95% 38.37% 100.83% 54.64% 100.83% 48.52%
15 27.57% 18.88% 18.88% 23.28% 18.87% 23.28% 18.88% 18.88% 27.57% 100.83% 40.95% 100.83% 35.76%
16 14.88% 9.92% 9.92% 12.40% 9.92% 12.40% 9.92% 9.92% 14.88% 100.83% 23.14% 100.83% 19.83%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

=== Win Probability ===
turn 1m 2m 3m 4m 5m 6m 7m 8m 9m 3s 4s 6s 7s
1 48.97% 26.93% 26.93% 40.02% 26.93% 40.02% 26.93% 26.93% 48.97% 54.09% 45.40% 66.53% 41.82%
2 45.67% 24.64% 24.64% 36.99% 24.64% 36.99% 24.64% 24.64% 45.67% 51.33% 42.41% 64.16% 38.83%
3 42.22% 22.33% 22.33% 33.88% 22.33% 33.88% 22.33% 22.33% 42.22% 48.45% 39.33% 61.62% 35.76%
4 38.64% 20.03% 20.03% 30.72% 20.03% 30.72% 20.03% 20.03% 38.64% 45.44% 36.13% 58.90% 32.64%
5 34.95% 17.74% 17.74% 27.51% 17.74% 27.51% 17.74% 17.74% 34.95% 42.32% 32.83% 55.99% 29.47%
6 31.16% 15.49% 15.49% 24.28% 15.49% 24.28% 15.49% 15.49% 31.16% 39.08% 29.45% 52.88% 26.29%
7 27.31% 13.28% 13.28% 21.06% 13.28% 21.06% 13.28% 13.28% 27.31% 35.73% 26.00% 49.54% 23.10%
8 23.43% 11.14% 11.14% 17.87% 11.14% 17.87% 11.14% 11.14% 23.43% 32.28% 22.50% 45.97% 19.91%
9 19.56% 9.09% 9.09% 14.75% 9.09% 14.75% 9.09% 9.09% 19.56% 28.75% 19.01% 42.14% 16.71%
10 15.76% 7.15% 7.15% 11.75% 7.15% 11.75% 7.15% 7.15% 15.76% 25.13% 15.54% 38.05% 13.55%
11 12.11% 5.37% 5.37% 8.92% 5.37% 8.92% 5.37% 5.37% 12.11% 21.47% 12.14% 33.66% 10.49%
12 8.69% 3.76% 3.76% 6.33% 3.76% 6.33% 3.76% 3.76% 8.69% 17.77% 8.87% 28.97% 7.59%
13 5.62% 2.37% 2.37% 4.04% 2.37% 4.04% 2.37% 2.37% 5.62% 14.07% 5.85% 23.94% 4.95%
14 3.03% 1.25% 1.25% 2.15% 1.25% 2.15% 1.25% 1.25% 3.03% 10.39% 3.22% 18.55% 2.70%
15 1.09% 0.44% 0.44% 0.76% 0.44% 0.76% 0.44% 0.44% 1.09% 6.79% 1.19% 12.79% 0.98%
16 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.31% 0.00% 6.61% 0.00%
17 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

=== Expected Score ===
turn 1m 2m 3m 4m 5m 6m 7m 8m 9m 3s 4s 6s 7s
1 4804.81 3603.39 3603.39 4460.16 3802.51 4460.16 3603.39 3603.39 4804.81 7306.69 6427.91 9815.70 5877.17
2 4460.14 3296.76 3296.76 4113.73 3479.42 4113.73 3296.76 3296.76 4460.14 6918.52 5988.85 9459.36 5449.80
3 4107.18 2988.93 2988.93 3761.45 3154.97 3761.45 2988.93 2988.93 4107.18 6514.25 5537.43 9078.55 5011.36
4 3746.32 2681.34 2681.34 3404.20 2830.70 3404.20 2681.34 2681.34 3746.32 6094.22 5075.56 8671.62 4563.74
5 3378.04 2375.72 2375.72 3043.36 2508.41 3043.36 2375.72 2375.72 3378.04 5658.97 4601.57 8236.78 4109.37
6 3002.93 2074.03 2074.03 2681.29 2190.21 2681.29 2074.03 2074.03 3002.93 5209.33 4118.17 7772.12 3651.30
7 2623.50 1778.60 1778.60 2320.87 1878.51 2320.87 1778.60 1778.60 2623.50 4746.41 3628.97 7275.61 3193.35
8 2243.29 1492.09 1492.09 1965.55 1576.14 1965.55 1492.09 1492.09 2243.29 4271.71 3135.41 6745.08 2740.16
9 1866.75 1217.55 1217.55 1619.46 1286.34 1619.46 1217.55 1217.55 1866.75 3787.16 2641.25 6178.21 2297.44
10 1499.45 958.51 958.51 1287.52 1012.83 1287.52 958.51 958.51 1499.45 3295.18 2153.42 5572.52 1863.66
11 1148.23 719.01 719.01 975.52 759.88 975.52 719.01 719.01 1148.23 2798.80 1681.06 4925.38 1442.62
12 821.50 503.64 503.64 690.32 532.36 690.32 503.64 503.64 821.50 2301.73 1228.22 4233.97 1044.37
13 529.51 317.66 317.66 439.94 335.83 439.94 317.66 317.66 529.51 1808.48 809.95 3495.27 681.86
14 284.72 167.05 167.05 233.81 176.63 233.81 167.05 167.05 284.72 1324.52 446.42 2706.07 371.78
15 102.17 58.59 58.59 82.89 61.97 82.89 58.59 58.59 102.17 856.35 164.54 1862.94 135.43
16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 411.77 0.00 962.22 0.00
17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

[nekobean]

@Starry-Miracle

Thanks for reporting.

Tenpai probability is not showing 100% when the hand is tenpai form.

This is a bug and will be fixed in the next update.
related: #24

Issues where probability may exceed 100%.

I think it is a bug.
It is too large for a floating calculation error.

[Starry-Miracle]

Thank you for your update. I am not sure if both issues are corelated (agari probability and Expected Score). Below are some data that I observed for your reference.

Problem 1: Seems that the result for nanikiru-simulator v0.9.4 deviates from the other two. I hope this can help you on seeking out the problem.

Problem 2: Also the tenpai probability still looks strange. The error in precision should not add up to that much if only 4953 hands searched. (this is based on latest commit at time)

牌姿:
東一局0本場 東家 (3巡目) ドラ: 南
4556m12367p12378s

1: nanikiru-simulator v0.9.4

2: nanikiru-simulator v0.9.0

3: ./test_ev_score edited from sample_expected_score_calculation.cpp based on commit 65ff5e24fa4f0b7777db66d801eb06c9826ff8b9

root@e7d601a98567:/mahjong-cpp/build/install/bin# ./test_ev_score 4556m12367p12378s
[2025-01-04 11:17:21.480] [info] Uradora table file loaded. (path: /mahjong-cpp/build/install/bin/uradora.bin)
[2025-01-04 11:17:21.686] [info] Table file loaded. (path: /mahjong-cpp/build/install/bin/suits_table.bin, size: 1943751)
[2025-01-04 11:17:21.700] [info] Table file loaded. (path: /mahjong-cpp/build/install/bin/honors_table.bin, size: 77751)
=== Config ===
     min turn: 1
     max turn: 18
   wall tiles: 0
        extra: 1
 shanten type: 7
      reddora: true
      uradora: true
 shanten down: true
     tegawari: true
       riichi: false
=== Round ===
[ルール]
  赤ドラ有り: 有り
  喰い断有り: 有り
[場]
東1局0本場
供託棒: 0本
ドラ表示牌: 1z

=== Player ===
手牌: 4556m12367p12378s
副露牌:
自風: 1z

=== Necessary Tiles ===
4m type: 4, sum: 16, shanten: 1->1 tiles: 5p(4) 8p(4) 6s(4) 9s(4)
5m type: 8, sum: 28, shanten: 1->1 tiles: 5p(4) 6p(3) 7p(3) 8p(4) 6s(4) 7s(3) 8s(3) 9s(4)
6m type: 4, sum: 16, shanten: 1->1 tiles: 5p(4) 8p(4) 6s(4) 9s(4)
1p type: 13, sum: 43, shanten: 1->2 tiles: 5m(2) 1p(3) 2p(3) 3p(3) 4p(4) 5p(4) 6p(3) 7p(3) 8p(4) 6s(4) 7s(3) 8s(3) 9s(4)

2p type: 12, sum: 39, shanten: 1->2 tiles: 5m(2) 1p(3) 2p(3) 3p(3) 5p(4) 6p(3) 7p(3) 8p(4) 6s(4) 7s(3) 8s(3) 9s(4)
3p type: 12, sum: 39, shanten: 1->2 tiles: 5m(2) 1p(3) 2p(3) 3p(3) 5p(4) 6p(3) 7p(3) 8p(4) 6s(4) 7s(3) 8s(3) 9s(4)
6p type: 4, sum: 13, shanten: 1->1 tiles: 5m(2) 7p(3) 6s(4) 9s(4)
7p type: 4, sum: 13, shanten: 1->1 tiles: 5m(2) 6p(3) 6s(4) 9s(4)
1s type: 13, sum: 43, shanten: 1->2 tiles: 5m(2) 5p(4) 6p(3) 7p(3) 8p(4) 1s(3) 2s(3) 3s(3) 4s(4) 6s(4) 7s(3) 8s(3) 9s(4)

2s type: 12, sum: 39, shanten: 1->2 tiles: 5m(2) 5p(4) 6p(3) 7p(3) 8p(4) 1s(3) 2s(3) 3s(3) 6s(4) 7s(3) 8s(3) 9s(4)
3s type: 12, sum: 39, shanten: 1->2 tiles: 5m(2) 5p(4) 6p(3) 7p(3) 8p(4) 1s(3) 2s(3) 3s(3) 6s(4) 7s(3) 8s(3) 9s(4)
7s type: 4, sum: 13, shanten: 1->1 tiles: 5m(2) 5p(4) 8p(4) 8s(3)
8s type: 4, sum: 13, shanten: 1->1 tiles: 5m(2) 5p(4) 8p(4) 7s(3)

=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn      4m      5m      6m      1p      2p      3p      6p      7p      1s      2s      3s      7s      8s
   1 107.29% 110.92% 107.29% 102.79%  99.09%  99.09% 109.59% 109.70% 102.79%  99.09%  99.09% 109.28% 109.59%
   2 105.81% 109.87% 105.81% 100.87%  96.74%  96.74% 108.43% 108.56% 100.87%  96.74%  96.74% 108.08% 108.43%
   3 104.17% 108.74% 104.17%  98.73%  94.09%  94.09% 107.16% 107.30%  98.73%  94.09%  94.09% 106.76% 107.16%
   4 102.33% 107.51% 102.33%  96.31%  91.10%  91.10% 105.73% 105.90%  96.31%  91.10%  91.10% 105.27% 105.73%
   5 100.23% 106.16% 100.23%  93.56%  87.72%  87.72% 104.11% 104.30%  93.56%  87.72%  87.72% 103.57% 104.11%
   6  97.84% 104.62%  97.84%  90.40%  83.87%  83.87% 102.23% 102.44%  90.40%  83.87%  83.87% 101.60% 102.23%
   7  95.07% 102.86%  95.07%  86.71%  79.51%  79.51%  99.99% 100.23%  86.71%  79.51%  79.51%  99.25% 100.00%
   8  91.84% 100.79%  91.84%  82.36%  74.57%  74.57%  97.29%  97.55%  82.36%  74.57%  74.57%  96.41%  97.30%
   9  88.02%  98.31%  88.02%  77.22%  69.02%  69.02%  93.97%  94.26%  77.22%  69.02%  69.02%  92.93%  93.98%
  10  83.47%  95.26%  83.47%  71.10%  62.69%  62.69%  89.82%  90.13%  71.10%  62.69%  62.69%  88.60%  89.84%
  11  78.01%  91.45%  78.01%  63.83%  55.42%  55.42%  84.56%  84.89%  63.83%  55.42%  55.42%  83.19%  84.59%
  12  71.45%  86.61%  71.45%  55.23%  47.11%  47.11%  77.86%  78.20%  55.23%  47.11%  47.11%  76.39%  77.92%
  13  63.56%  80.35%  63.56%  45.17%  37.77%  37.77%  69.34%  69.66%  45.17%  37.77%  37.77%  67.89%  69.46%
  14  54.12%  72.15%  54.12%  33.71%  27.55%  27.55%  58.62%  58.88%  33.71%  27.55%  27.55%  57.33%  58.83%
  15  42.95%  61.26%  42.95%  21.27%  16.94%  16.94%  45.49%  45.65%  21.27%  16.94%  16.94%  44.54%  45.71%
  16  29.96%  46.67%  29.96%   9.08%   7.03%   7.03%  30.27%  30.27%   9.08%   7.03%   7.03%  29.64%  30.38%
  17  15.38%  26.92%  15.38%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  12.50%  12.50%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%  12.50%  12.50%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

=== Win Probability ===
turn      4m      5m      6m      1p      2p      3p      6p      7p      1s      2s      3s      7s      8s
   1  53.04%  52.73%  53.04%  42.51%  33.77%  33.77%  48.58%  48.77%  42.51%  33.77%  33.77%  48.61%  49.00%
   2  50.07%  49.99%  50.07%  39.32%  31.02%  31.02%  45.69%  45.87%  39.32%  31.02%  31.02%  45.71%  46.09%
   3  46.94%  47.09%  46.94%  36.02%  28.25%  28.25%  42.65%  42.83%  36.02%  28.25%  28.25%  42.66%  43.03%
   4  43.64%  44.02%  43.64%  32.61%  25.46%  25.46%  39.47%  39.65%  32.61%  25.46%  25.46%  39.47%  39.82%
   5  40.17%  40.77%  40.17%  29.12%  22.63%  22.63%  36.14%  36.33%  29.12%  22.63%  22.63%  36.13%  36.47%
   6  36.55%  37.35%  36.55%  25.57%  19.77%  19.77%  32.69%  32.87%  25.57%  19.77%  19.77%  32.66%  33.00%
   7  32.79%  33.76%  32.79%  22.01%  16.91%  16.91%  29.11%  29.30%  22.00%  16.91%  16.91%  29.07%  29.40%
   8  28.91%  30.02%  28.91%  18.47%  14.10%  14.10%  25.44%  25.62%  18.46%  14.10%  14.10%  25.39%  25.71%
   9  24.94%  26.14%  24.94%  15.01%  11.36%  11.36%  21.72%  21.87%  15.01%  11.36%  11.36%  21.66%  21.95%
  10  20.93%  22.16%  20.93%  11.73%   8.77%   8.77%  17.99%  18.11%  11.72%   8.77%   8.77%  17.93%  18.18%
  11  16.95%  18.14%  16.95%   8.66%   6.38%   6.38%  14.30%  14.39%   8.65%   6.38%   6.38%  14.23%  14.46%
  12  13.07%  14.15%  13.07%   5.88%   4.26%   4.26%  10.74%  10.80%   5.88%   4.26%   4.26%  10.67%  10.86%
  13   9.41%  10.30%   9.41%   3.53%   2.51%   2.51%   7.44%   7.46%   3.53%   2.51%   2.51%   7.38%   7.51%
  14   6.09%   6.74%   6.09%   1.71%   1.19%   1.19%   4.51%   4.52%   1.70%   1.19%   1.19%   4.47%   4.56%
  15   3.28%   3.66%   3.28%   0.52%   0.35%   0.35%   2.17%   2.17%   0.52%   0.35%   0.35%   2.15%   2.18%
  16   1.17%   1.32%   1.17%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.59%   0.59%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.59%   0.59%
  17   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

=== Expected Score ===
turn       4m       5m       6m       1p       2p       3p       6p       7p       1s       2s       3s       7s       8s
   1  3338.53  3099.98  3338.52  2561.95  1958.53  1958.53  2921.02  2961.39  2567.17  1959.03  1959.03  3084.25  3108.91
   2  3141.89  2918.32  3141.89  2366.29  1789.31  1789.31  2734.01  2771.49  2371.15  1789.80  1789.80  2888.35  2912.96
   3  2935.71  2729.97  2935.71  2164.00  1618.56  1618.56  2539.22  2573.81  2168.47  1619.03  1619.03  2683.82  2708.24
   4  2720.11  2535.44  2720.10  1955.95  1447.34  1447.34  2337.03  2368.88  1960.02  1447.77  1447.77  2471.03  2495.07
   5  2495.48  2333.59  2495.48  1743.34  1277.12  1277.12  2128.07  2157.36  1747.00  1277.52  1277.52  2250.66  2274.05
   6  2262.52  2124.67  2262.52  1527.80  1109.74  1109.74  1913.46  1939.63  1531.04  1110.11  1110.11  2023.81  2046.17
   7  2022.22  1909.22  2022.22  1311.47   945.17   945.17  1694.26  1717.03  1314.27   945.51   945.51  1792.08  1812.90
   8  1776.16  1688.09  1776.16  1097.06   785.68   785.68  1471.55  1491.40  1099.43   785.97   785.97  1557.69  1576.31
   9  1526.53  1462.48  1526.53   888.02   632.29   632.29  1247.82  1265.45   889.94   632.52   632.52  1322.67  1339.24
  10  1276.28  1234.01  1276.28   688.55   487.05   487.05  1026.54  1041.21   690.05   487.23   487.23  1088.66  1103.70
  11  1029.32  1005.15  1029.32   503.70   353.58   353.58   810.74   822.66   504.79   353.71   353.71   860.10   873.15
  12   790.66   780.01   790.65   339.30   236.00   236.00   605.41   613.88   340.01   236.08   236.08   643.00   653.21
  13   566.66   564.53   566.66   201.69   138.66   138.66   417.45   422.10   202.10   138.72   138.72   443.31   451.01
  14   365.15   366.76   365.15    96.85    65.56    65.56   252.66   254.64    97.05    65.59    65.59   268.28   273.14
  15   195.73   197.45   195.73    29.32    19.47    19.47   120.01   120.44    29.37    19.48    19.48   128.32   130.29
  16    69.73    69.96    69.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.04    32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.08    35.08
  17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
  18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00
=== Info ===
      shanten: 1
         time: 18 ms
     searched: 4953 hands

[nekobean]

The issue about tenpai probability has likely been fixed in the latest commit on the master branch.
The web application will be updated at a later date.
Thank you for your feedback.

related: #31

Result 123456789m34677s

=== Player ===
手牌: 123456789m34677s
副露牌: 
自風: 1z

=== Necessary Tiles ===
1m type: 5, sum: 17, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 1m(3) 4m(3) 7m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
2m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 2m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
3m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 3m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
4m type: 4, sum: 14, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 4m(3) 7m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
5m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 5m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
6m type: 4, sum: 14, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 3m(3) 6m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
7m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 7m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
8m type: 3, sum: 11, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 8m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
9m type: 5, sum: 17, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 3m(3) 6m(3) 9m(3) 2s(4) 5s(4)
3s type: 1, sum: 4, shanten: 0->0 tiles: 5s(4)
4s type: 8, sum: 27, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 1s(4) 2s(4) 3s(3) 4s(3) 5s(4) 6s(3) 7s(2) 8s(4)
6s type: 2, sum: 8, shanten: 0->0 tiles: 2s(4) 5s(4)
7s type: 7, sum: 23, shanten: 0->1 tiles: 2s(4) 3s(3) 4s(3) 5s(4) 6s(3) 7s(2) 8s(4)

=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn      1m      2m      3m      4m      5m      6m      7m      8m      9m      3s      4s      6s      7s
   1  94.95%  85.50%  85.50%  91.37%  85.50%  91.37%  85.50%  85.50%  94.95% 100.00%  99.26% 100.00%  98.36%
   2  94.06%  83.88%  83.88%  90.14%  83.88%  90.14%  83.88%  83.88%  94.06% 100.00%  99.03% 100.00%  97.95%
   3  93.00%  82.08%  82.08%  88.71%  82.08%  88.71%  82.08%  82.08%  93.00% 100.00%  98.73% 100.00%  97.43%
   4  91.74%  80.05%  80.05%  87.07%  80.05%  87.07%  80.05%  80.05%  91.74% 100.00%  98.34% 100.00%  96.77%
   5  90.23%  77.77%  77.77%  85.17%  77.77%  85.17%  77.77%  77.77%  90.23% 100.00%  97.82% 100.00%  95.94%
   6  88.44%  75.20%  75.20%  82.97%  75.20%  82.97%  75.20%  75.20%  88.44% 100.00%  97.12% 100.00%  94.88%
   7  86.29%  72.31%  72.31%  80.41%  72.31%  80.41%  72.31%  72.31%  86.29% 100.00%  96.20% 100.00%  93.53%
   8  83.72%  69.06%  69.06%  77.44%  69.06%  77.44%  69.06%  69.06%  83.72% 100.00%  94.96% 100.00%  91.81%
   9  80.64%  65.38%  65.38%  73.99%  65.38%  73.99%  65.38%  65.38%  80.64% 100.00%  93.30% 100.00%  89.60%
  10  76.93%  61.23%  61.23%  69.97%  61.23%  69.97%  61.23%  61.23%  76.93% 100.00%  91.07% 100.00%  86.77%
  11  72.47%  56.53%  56.53%  65.28%  56.53%  65.28%  56.53%  56.53%  72.47% 100.00%  88.05% 100.00%  83.11%
  12  67.08%  51.20%  51.20%  59.79%  51.20%  59.79%  51.20%  51.20%  67.08% 100.00%  83.97% 100.00%  78.40%
  13  60.57%  45.17%  45.17%  53.38%  45.17%  53.38%  45.17%  45.17%  60.57% 100.00%  78.43% 100.00%  72.30%
  14  52.69%  38.31%  38.31%  45.86%  38.31%  45.86%  38.31%  38.31%  52.69% 100.00%  70.89% 100.00%  64.39%
  15  43.12%  30.52%  30.52%  37.03%  30.52%  37.03%  30.52%  30.52%  43.12% 100.00%  60.57% 100.00%  54.09%
  16  31.48%  21.65%  21.65%  26.65%  21.65%  26.65%  21.65%  21.65%  31.48% 100.00%  46.41% 100.00%  40.66%
  17  17.31%  11.54%  11.54%  14.42%  11.54%  14.42%  11.54%  11.54%  17.31% 100.00%  26.92% 100.00%  23.08%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00% 100.00%   0.00% 100.00%   0.00%

=== Win Probability ===
turn      1m      2m      3m      4m      5m      6m      7m      8m      9m      3s      4s      6s      7s
   1  56.43%  32.39%  32.39%  47.03%  32.39%  47.03%  32.39%  32.39%  56.43%  60.31%  52.21%  71.70%  48.74%
   2  53.45%  30.12%  30.12%  44.18%  30.12%  44.18%  30.12%  30.12%  53.45%  57.83%  49.47%  69.68%  45.94%
   3  50.29%  27.81%  27.81%  41.20%  27.81%  41.20%  27.81%  27.81%  50.29%  55.19%  46.59%  67.50%  43.01%
   4  46.95%  25.45%  25.45%  38.11%  25.45%  38.11%  25.45%  25.45%  46.95%  52.41%  43.57%  65.13%  39.97%
   5  43.42%  23.06%  23.06%  34.91%  23.06%  34.91%  23.06%  23.06%  43.42%  49.47%  40.40%  62.57%  36.81%
   6  39.71%  20.65%  20.65%  31.61%  20.65%  31.61%  20.65%  20.65%  39.71%  46.36%  37.10%  59.80%  33.56%
   7  35.84%  18.23%  18.23%  28.23%  18.23%  28.23%  18.23%  18.23%  35.84%  43.10%  33.64%  56.80%  30.22%
   8  31.82%  15.81%  15.81%  24.79%  15.81%  24.79%  15.81%  15.81%  31.82%  39.68%  30.05%  53.54%  26.83%
   9  27.67%  13.43%  13.43%  21.32%  13.43%  21.32%  13.43%  13.43%  27.67%  36.09%  26.34%  50.00%  23.40%
  10  23.44%  11.10%  11.10%  17.85%  11.10%  17.85%  11.10%  11.10%  23.44%  32.36%  22.55%  46.15%  19.93%
  11  19.19%   8.86%   8.86%  14.43%   8.86%  14.43%   8.86%   8.86%  19.19%  28.49%  18.72%  41.97%  16.42%
  12  15.00%   6.74%   6.74%  11.13%   6.74%  11.13%   6.74%   6.74%  15.00%  24.49%  14.87%  37.42%  12.93%
  13  10.96%   4.79%   4.79%   8.02%   4.79%   8.02%   4.79%   4.79%  10.96%  20.40%  11.08%  32.46%   9.53%
  14   7.23%   3.07%   3.07%   5.22%   3.07%   5.22%   3.07%   3.07%   7.23%  16.23%   7.47%  27.06%   6.35%
  15   3.98%   1.64%   1.64%   2.83%   1.64%   2.83%   1.64%   1.64%   3.98%  12.05%   4.21%  21.16%   3.54%
  16   1.47%   0.59%   0.59%   1.03%   0.59%   1.03%   0.59%   0.59%   1.47%   7.89%   1.59%  14.73%   1.32%
  17   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   3.85%   0.00%   7.69%   0.00%
  18   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%   0.00%

=== Expected Score ===
turn       1m       2m       3m       4m       5m       6m       7m       8m       9m       3s       4s       6s       7s        
   1  5609.00  4331.16  4331.16  5271.86  4569.11  5271.86  4331.16  4331.16  5609.00  8185.04  7438.67 10596.24  6863.11        
   2  5281.79  4028.94  4028.94  4938.75  4250.85  4938.75  4028.94  4028.94  5281.79  7832.92  7031.22 10290.80  6463.82        
   3  4942.72  3720.07  3720.07  4595.08  3925.50  4595.08  3720.07  3720.07  4942.72  7460.98  6604.28  9961.26  6046.57        
   4  4591.48  3405.44  3405.44  4241.18  3594.00  4241.18  3405.44  3405.44  4591.48  7068.67  6158.38  9605.48  5611.91        
   5  4228.01  3086.21  3086.21  3877.53  3257.57  3877.53  3086.21  3086.21  4228.01  6655.57  5694.57  9221.12  5160.86        
   6  3852.41  2763.85  2763.85  3504.82  2917.74  3504.82  2763.85  2763.85  3852.41  6221.46  5214.53  8805.62  4694.95        
   7  3464.88  2440.18  2440.18  3124.03  2576.46  3124.03  2440.18  2440.18  3464.88  5766.37  4717.03  8356.14  4216.46        
   8  3065.75  2117.51  2117.51  2737.69  2236.12  2737.69  2117.51  2117.51  3065.75  5290.66  4203.47  7869.58  3728.54        
   9  2657.24  1798.63  1798.63  2349.06  1899.69  2349.06  1798.63  1798.63  2657.24  4795.12  3677.64  7342.50  3235.46        
  10  2243.49  1487.00  1487.00  1962.41  1570.82  1962.41  1487.00  1487.00  2243.49  4281.09  3141.44  6771.13  2742.89        
  11  1830.14  1186.82  1186.82  1583.17  1253.94  1583.17  1186.82  1186.82  1830.14  3750.59  2599.26  6151.31  2257.67        
  12  1424.77   903.20   903.20  1218.23   954.45  1218.23   903.20   903.20  1424.77  3206.52  2060.41  5478.42  1777.78        
  13  1037.42   642.31   642.31   876.27   678.88   876.27   642.31   642.31  1037.42  2652.90  1534.82  4747.37  1311.13        
  14   681.33   411.61   411.61   568.18   435.13   568.18   411.61   411.61   681.33  2095.10  1033.90  3952.54   873.46        
  15   373.73   220.09   220.09   307.51   232.71   307.51   220.09   220.09   373.73  1540.24   583.34  3087.69   486.77        
  16   136.98    78.56    78.56   111.14    83.08   111.14    78.56    78.56   136.98   997.58   220.61  2145.90   181.58        
  17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   479.08     0.00  1119.51     0.00        
  18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00        
=== Info ===
      shanten: 0
         time: 1 ms
     searched: 282 hands

[Starry-Miracle]

mahjong-cpp/src/samples/sample_expected_score_calculation.cpp

Line 17 in 482e760

player.hand = from_mpsz("222567m345p33667s");

if player.hand is given input: 123m123p33334444z with other default parameters.

In the function ExpectedScoreCalculator::calc_stats, s1.tenpai_prob[t] will be larger than config.sum - t

when t = config.t_max - 1 = 17, config.sum - t = 104, s1.tenpai_prob[t] = 121, and the tenpai probability given by the program is 121/104 = 116.35% (2 d.p.)

=== Tenpai Probability ===
turn      3z      4z
   1 116.35% 116.35%

(and interestingly, this hand is 1 shan-ten, so turn 1 tenpai probability should not be 100%?)

mahjong-cpp/src/mahjong/core/expected_score_calculator.cpp

Line 448 in 482e760

s1.tenpai_prob[t + 1] + s1.tenpai_prob[t] / (config.sum - t);

I believe there should not be minus t there, given the case of "all unseen tiles" are still the same for turn 1 to 18?
(Edited: I think it should be max(1, min(s1, s2)) to cover cases where it is not possible to draw 17 unnecessary tiles)

---

(Edited): also, during testing on the website version v0.9.5, it will fail/error if there is less than 18 tiles in wall by adjusting "Nokori Maisu". post.py shows tenpai probability = 0. And if there is 18 tiles in hand, the expected value will return an unreasonably large number (e.g. 2367635.6969), which I cannot think of how it can be achieved. Even when turning of "Tegawari", it is still returning a large number (1990455.3864).

---

(Edited 2:) I think there is also problem for edge cases while adjusting "Nokori Maisu"/ some of the special cases with hand using (multiple) 4 of the same tiles + headless (no pairs).

[nekobean]

Thank you for reporting.

This issue arises because the total number of necessary tiles ($R$) exceeds the number of tiles in wall (山) ($S - t$) at turn $t$.

For example, given $R=110$, $S=121$, and $t=12$, the probability of drawing a necessary tile is:

$$ \frac{R}{S - t} = \frac{110}{121 - 12} > 1 $$

and thus, it can no longer be considered a probability.
In reality, since you will always be able to draw a necessary tile before turn $12$, so this situation would never occur.

---

In the simulation, discarded tiles are not placed in the river but are returned to the wall. Therefore, the denominator should originally be $S$.

In actual mahjong, since the number of tiles in the wall decreases with each turn, the probability of drawing a necessary tile increases. $S−t$ reflects this situation.
If we use $S$ insted of $S - t$, this issue would not occur, but the probability and expected score would be lower.

The superiority of the discarded tile remains unchanged, so I will consider using $S$.

---

The winning probability is calculated using the following formula.

winning probability calculation

When the hand $s$ contains 13 tiles

e.x.

When the hand $s$ contains 14 tiles, choose the discard that maximizes the winning probability

$$ p_t^s = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if}\ \text{s is winnning form} \\ \max\limits_{s'} p_{t}^{s'} & \text{if}\ \text{otherwise} \\ \end{cases} $$

[nekobean]

I think there is also problem for edge cases while adjusting "Nokori Maisu"/ some of the special cases with hand using (multiple) 4 of the same tiles + headless (no pairs).

Shanten number is defined as the minimum number of tile exchanges to transform into tenpai form.
To speed up the calculation, the number of exchanges to convert to any winning hands is calculated in advance, and the minimum value is recorded in the file.
However, since tiles not present in the wall (残り枚数) and fuuro tiles (副露牌) are not taken into account when creating table, if the tiles needed for the shortest winning hand are not already left, shanten number cannot be calculated correctly.

Another method for calculating the shanten number involves dividing the hand into mentsu (面子) and a pair (雀頭), but this approach is too slow to be practical.

related issue #26

[nekobean]

also, during testing on the website version v0.9.5, it will fail/error if there is less than 18 tiles in wall by adjusting "Nokori Maisu". post.py shows tenpai probability = 0. And if there is 18 tiles in hand, the expected value will return an unreasonably large number (e.g. 2367635.6969), which I cannot think of how it can be achieved. Even when turning of "Tegawari", it is still returning a large number (1990455.3864).

Either of the two issues above could be the cause.