From 80af0025c596a629dba2be1bf284e745f6b51f9e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaayslaughter-cpu Date: Thu, 14 May 2026 22:07:07 -0700 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?PR=20#572:=20Season=20blend=2090/10=20(divisor?= =?UTF-8?q?=2080=E2=86=9255)=20+=20MIN=5FPROB=200.57=E2=86=920.60?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- tasklets.py | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/tasklets.py b/tasklets.py index 8e91366..5565b75 100644 --- a/tasklets.py +++ b/tasklets.py @@ -292,7 +292,7 @@ def ping(*a, **kw): return False # raise the bar from 52% without losing too many qualifying picks. # At 0.55 with correct multipliers: 2-leg PP needs 55%^2 * 3 - 1 = -9.2% → still # needs higher prob per leg, but combined_ev gate (+3%) now does the real work. -MIN_PROB = 0.57 +MIN_PROB = 0.60 # PR #572: May 15 schedule — raised from 0.57 # Per-prop MIN_PROB overrides — loaded from data/calibration_params.json # Format: {"hits": 0.62, "total_bases": 0.62, ...} @@ -2436,7 +2436,7 @@ def _prewarm_career_stats(): # blend is consistent across all data paths and XGBoost training rows. _season_start = OPENING_DAY # 2026-03-26 _days_played = max(0, (_today_pt() - _season_start).days) - _season_weight_2026 = round(min(1.0, _days_played / 80.0), 3) + _season_weight_2026 = round(min(1.0, _days_played / 55.0), 3) # PR #572: 90/10 by day 49 (May 15) _season_weight_2025 = round(1.0 - _season_weight_2026, 3) def _is_pre_match(game_id: str) -> bool: