Arg-77
The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell: "Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
In this memo, Hopewell's mayor recommends the construction of a gold course in order to stimulate the town's economy and boost tax revenues. To support this recommendation the mayor points out that in Ocean View during the last two years tourism has increased, new businesses have opened, and tax revenues have increased by 30%. The mayor’s reasoning, while sound, has led him to make a rather unconvincing argument.
First of all, it is possible that the mayor has confused cause with effect in respect to the recent economic developments in Ocean View. Perhaps Ocean View's construction of a new golf course and hotel was a response to increases in tourism and business development. Since the mayor has failed to account for this possibility, the claim that Hopewell would boost its economy by also constructing a golf course and hotel is completely unwarranted.
Secondly, the mayor fails to account for other possible causes of the trends in Ocean View during the last two years. The increase in tourism might have been due to improving economic conditions nationwide, or to unusually pleasant weather in the region. The new businesses that have opened in Ocean View might have opened there irrespective of the new golf course and hotel. And, the 30% increase in tax revenues might have been the result of other tax increases. Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the three recent trends in Ocean View, the mayor cannot reasonably infer, based on those trends, that Hopewell's economy would benefit by following Ocean View's example.
Thirdly, for the sake of argument, let's assume that recent trends in Ocean View are attributable to the construction of the new golf course and hotel there. Even still, the mayor assumes too hastily that the golf course and hotel will continue to benefit that town's overall economy. The mayor has not accounted for the possibility that increased tourism will begin to drive residents away during tourist season, or that new business development will result in the town's losing its appeal as a place to visit or to live. That is, two years is quite a short time to be using as a sample. Unless the mayor can convince that these scenarios are unlikely one should not so readily accept the recommendation.
Finally, the mayor's argument rests on the unsubstantiated assumption that Hopewell and Ocean View are sufficiently alike such to the extent that by following the same plan, the same results will come to fruition. Hopewell might lack the sort of natural environment that would attract more tourists and new businesses to the town regardless of its new golf course and hotel. For that matter, perhaps Hopewell already contains several resort hotels and golf courses that are not utilized to their capacity. If so, building yet another golf course and hotel might amount to a misallocation of the town's resources, which would actually harm the town's overall economy.
In sum, the mayor's recommendation is not well supported. To bolster argument the mayor must provide better evidence that Ocean View's new golf course and hotel, and not some other phenomenon, has been responsible for boosting Ocean View's economy during the last two years. Also, to better assess the recommendation, an audience would need to know why Ocean View decided to construct its new golf course and hotel in the first place (specifically what events prior to construction might have prompted that decision). One would also need to thoroughly compare Hopewell with Ocean View to determine whether the same course of action would also boost Hopewell's economy.
- In this memo, Hopewell's mayor recommends ... .(C) To support this recommendation the mayor points out that... . (E)The mayor’s reasoning, while sound, has led him to make a rather unconvincing argument.(F)标志性的GRE argument C-E-F开头段结构，首句提出原文的conclusion，接下来引用原文为了支持这一结论所引用的evidence，最后点出文章存在Flaw。
- Thirdly, for the sake of argument, let's assume that... .(标志性的GRE argument论证段开头，让步语气假设前一论断不存在逻辑错误) Even still, the mayor assumes too hastily that ... （指出原文存在的另外的错误）. The mayor has not accounted for the possibility that ... , or that ... . That is, two years is quite a short time to be using as a sample. （提出其他可能性来削弱原文中的论证）Unless the mayor can convince that these scenarios are unlikely one should not so readily accept the recommendation.(再次总结上文中分析的错误)
- Finally, the mayor's argument rests on the unsubstantiated assumption that ... are sufficiently alike such to the extent that by following the same plan, the same results will come to fruition. （标志性的GRE argument论证段开头，指出原文的错误是“错误类比”）Hopewell might lack ... . For that matter, perhaps .... . If so, ... .（标志性的错误类比分析，提出两地可能存在的差异，进一步提出两地可能收获的不同结果）
本文是非常严谨的开头段-正文段1-正文段2--正文段3-正文段4-结尾段的六段论逻辑体系。开头段按照C-E-F的逻辑结构，顺利引出后文的分析。论证段中，从提出错误，到分析错误，到给出可能性，最后总结错误，层次清晰，衔接自然。结尾段总结全文，重申错误，给出合理化建议。这样一篇文章从开头到结尾逻辑严谨，内容清晰，圆满的完成了论证的作用。正文段第三段开头值得借鉴Thirdly, for the sake of argument, lets assume that recent trends in Ocean View are attributable to the construction of the new golf course and hotel there. Even still, the mayor assumes too hastily that the golf course and hotel will continue to benefit that town's overall economy.作者在这一段用到了，让步结构，即先假设前一个论断是正确的，在这一基础上提出文章的其他错误。这样使得论证段与论证段之间内容关联性更加紧密。