Arg-17(同109、110)
The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of WWAC radio station: "To reverse a decline in listener numbers, our owners have decided that WWAC must change from its current rock-music format. The decline has occurred despite population growth in our listening area, but that growth has resulted mainly from people moving here after their retirement. We must make listeners of these new residents. We could switch to a music format tailored to their tastes, but a continuing decline in local sales of recorded music suggests limited interest in music. Instead we should change to a news and talk format, a form of radio that is increasingly popular in our area." Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
This memo recommends that WWAC radio station shift from rock-and-roll (R&R) music programming to news and talk programming. To support this recommendation the manager indicates that the number of WWAC listeners is decreasing while the number of older people in WWAC's listening area is increasing. The manager also points out that area sales of music recordings are in decline. Finally, the manager cites the success of news stations in nearby cities. Careful scrutiny of the manager's argument reveals several unproven assumptions, which render the argument unconvincing.
First, the manager assumes that the decline in the number of WWAC listeners is attributable to the station's current format. Perhaps the decline is due instead to WWAC's specific mix of R&R music, or to transmission problems at the station. Without ruling out these and other possible reasons for the decline, the manager cannot convince an audience that changing the format would reverse the trend.
Secondly, the manager's assumption that older people favor all-news programming is unsubstantiated. Perhaps WWAC listeners are dedicated R&R fans who will continue to prefer this type of programming as they grow older. Or perhaps as WWAC's regular audience ages, they will prefer a mix of R&R and news programming rather than one format to the total exclusion of the other. Besides, the number of young people in the listening area might be increasing as well. In short, the mere fact that the number of older people in WWAC's listening area is increasing suggests nothing about WWAC's best programming strategy.
Thirdly, a decrease in local music recording sales is scant evidence that WWAC should eschew music in favor of an all-news format. Although overall music sales are in decline, perhaps sales of R&R recordings are actually increasing. For that matter, perhaps people who buy music recordings are generally not the same people who listen to music on the radio. Either scenario, if true, would seriously undermine the manager's contention that WWAC should discontinue R&R programming.
Finally, it is unwarranted to infer from the success of all-news stations in surrounding areas that WWAC will also succeed by duplicating the same format. Those stations might well owe their success to their powerful transmitters, popular newscasters, or other factors. Besides, the very success of these stations suggests that the area's radio listeners might favor those well-established news providers over the fledgling all-news WWAC.
In sum, the evidence accomplishes little toward supporting the manager's argument for the proposed format shift. To further bolster the argument the manager must provide better evidence, perhaps by way of a reliable survey, that people within WWAC's listening area are becoming more interested in news and less interested in R&R music (or any other genre). The manager must also demonstrate that an all-news format would be more popular than a mixed format of music and news, and that a significant number of people would prefer WWAC's all-news programming to that of other stations in the listening area.
- This memo recommends that… （标志性的Argument开头段引出原文结论的语言表达形式。）To support this recommendation the manager indicates that… Finally, the manager cites the… Careful scrutiny of the manager's argument reveals several unproven assumptions, which render the argument unconvincing.（标志性的指出文章错误的语言表达。整体开头段是标准的C—A—F的语言和逻辑模版体系。）
- Secondly, the manager's assumption that… is unsubstantiated. Perhaps… Or perhaps… In short, the mere fact that… suggests nothing about WWAC's best programming strategy.（标志性的存在他因短导致因果类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。）
- Thirdly… Although overall music sales are in decline, perhaps sales of R&R recordings are actually increasing… Either scenario, if true, would seriously undermine the manager's contention that…（标志性的由整体类推个体的类比类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。）
- Finally, it is unwarranted to infer from the success of all-news stations in surrounding areas that WWAC will also succeed by duplicating the same format. Those stations might well owe their success to… Besides, the very success of these stations suggests that…（标志性的参照其它案例的类比类错误的语言和逻辑模版体系。）
- In sum, the evidence accomplishes little toward supporting the manager's argument for… To further bolster the argument them manager must provide better evidence, perhaps by… The manager must also demonstrate that…（标志性的Argument结尾段Conclusion-Suggestion体系的语言和逻辑模版体系。）
本文的写作体现出了非常严谨的开头段—正文段1、2、3、4—结尾段的逻辑体系：（开头段）This memo recommends that…（正文段1）First, the manager assumes that…（正文段2）Secondly, the manager's assumption that… is unsubstantiated. （正文段3）Thirdly…（正文段4）Finally, it is unwarranted to infer from…（结尾段）In sum, the evidence accomplishes little toward supporting the manager's argument for… 特别注意的是，本文的第二和第三段段攻击的是因果类错误，而第四段和第五段攻击的都是原文当中的类比类逻辑错误。这样的写法，能够清晰的体现这篇文章对于逻辑错误的攻击顺序是非常清晰的：即先攻击第一类的因果类错误，接着攻击第二大类的样本类错误，并对原文中的样本类错误进行了拆分，即分别分析由整体类推个体的类比类错误和参照其它案例的类比类错误。