diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/00-document-info.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/00-document-info.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..71eb06a62 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/00-document-info.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,28 @@ +--- +title: Document Info +reportDate: March 2026 +reportType: Computer Program Document +reportTitle: LifeSim +reportSubTitle: Applications Guide +reportAuthors: ['Susie Byrd, Risk Management Center'] +reportAbstract: +reportAcknowledgments: xx +reportSubjectTerms: +responsiblePersonName: xx +responsiblePersonNumber: ###-###-#### +--- + +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import DocumentMetadata from "@site/src/components/DocumentMetadata"; +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; + + + +# Document Information + + diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/00-version-history.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/00-version-history.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..628e2985d --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/00-version-history.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +--- +title: Version History +--- + +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import TableVersionHistory from "@site/src/components/TableVersionHistory"; + + + +# Version History + + diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/01-preface.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/01-preface.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..112ddaffb --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/01-preface.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ +--- +title: "Preface" +--- + +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; + + + +# Preface + +LifeSim is the life loss and direct damage estimation software used by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. LifeSim is designed to simulate the entire +warning and evacuation process for estimating potential life loss and direct economic damages resulting from floods. The following is a description of + the major capabilities of LifeSim: + +Graphical User Interface + +Agent Based Modeling + +Evacuation Simulation + +Uncertainty + +Graphics and Reporting + +The user interacts with LifeSim through a graphical user interface (GUI). The interface is designed to make it easy to use the software, while still +maintaining a high level of efficiency for the user. + +LifeSim uses an agent-based approach to track individuals throughout the warning and evacuation process. During an evacuation, agents are interacting +with the roads, other vehicles, and the incoming hazard. After the warning and evacuation process has been simulated, LifeSim calculates lethality for + those people who are exposed to the hazard and the associated direct damages. By tracking individual people and their movements, LifeSim can help +identify where people are most at risk of losing their lives, whether it is on roads or in structures. + +Three modes of evacuation are included in LifeSim: cars, sports utility vehicles (SUVs), and pedestrians. For vehicular evacuation, a dual regime +modified Greenshields model (USDOT) in conjunction with spillback enforcement is used for traffic propagation to represent the effects of traffic +density and road capacity on vehicle speed. Each road is assigned default values for the number of lanes, free flow speed, traffic jam densities, and +minimum stop-and-go speeds based on the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) (TRB 2000). + +To define the routes people use to evacuate, a road network is provided where each segment of the network contains information such as road category, +directionality, ground offset (for bridges), and interconnectivity. The road network can be imported from an existing GIS polyline shapefile or from +OpenStreetMap. OpenStreetMap is a collaborative project to create a free editable map of the world. During each timestep at the user defined interval +Δt, evacuating groups (PAR evacuating from a structure in a single vehicle) move as far as the model allows until the group reaches a destination +point, gets caught, or becomes stranded. More information on the evacuation simulation can be found in the (RMC 2021). + +LifeSim applies both natural variability and knowledge uncertainty through Monte Carlo analysis. Multiple parameters can be entered with uncertainty +including those that influence the warning and evacuation timeline. Each iteration in a simulation represents a scenario that could occur given the +data uncertainties in the model. The results of the analysis provide a distribution of estimated consequences from a given hazard. + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/02-introduction.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/02-introduction.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..b1d8dd0e1 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/02-introduction.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,75 @@ +--- +title: "Introduction" +--- + +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; + + + +# Introduction + +Welcome to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers LifeSim Applications Guide. LifeSim uses an agent-based methodology for estimating life loss with the +fundamental intent to simulate population redistribution during an evacuation. Direct life loss, direct economic damages, and direct agriculture +damages are then determined by the hazard (e.g., flooding). Direct consequences, the primary focus of LifeSim, are those incurred when people, +structures, or agricultural resources interact with the hazard. + +LifeSim is designed to simulate the entire warning and evacuation process for estimating potential life loss and direct economic damages resulting from + catastrophic floods (e.g., riverine flooding, coastal flooding, dam breach, and levee breach). LifeSim applies both natural variability and knowledge + uncertainty (i.e., naturally occurring change in models’ parameters and outputs and gaps in what can be known by the modelers at the time) through +Monte Carlo simulation. Many parameters can be entered with uncertainty including those that influence the warning and evacuation timeline (see the , +Warning and Evacuation Timeline Section for a more detailed overview). LifeSim is a multifaceted consequence estimation tool that can be utilized for various + types of studies and analyses, including dam safety, levee safety, coastal storm risk management, flood risk management, risk communication, and +more. + +## Overview of this Guide + +The LifeSim Applications Guide contains written descriptions of seven examples that demonstrate the main features of the LifeSim software. The +discussions in this manual contain detailed descriptions for the data inputs and analysis of the output for each example. The examples show and +describe various input and output screens used to enter the data and view the output. The examples are intended as a guide for performing similar +analyses in LifeSim. The manual is organized as follows: + +Summary of LifeSim Inputs, details the required inputs for all LifeSim studies. This section also defines and explains the inputs. +Finally, some recommended data pre-processing is discussed. Reference back to this section for additional information on Hydraulic Data, emergency +planning zones, Structure Inventories, Alternatives, and Simulations. + +Example 1, Estimating Consequence for Levees and Floodwalls, demonstrates the data required to estimate consequences + (life loss and direct economic damages) for a levee or floodwall breach. The example details required inputs, ways to acquire emergency preparedness +information for populations at risk (PAR) and emergency management agencies (EMAs), how to simulate evacuation, and how to analyze your modeling +results. + +Example 2, Estimating Consequences for Dams, demonstrates the data required to estimate consequences for a dam breach model. The +example details potential Geospatial Information System (GIS) pre-processing needed for data inputs, editing your structure inventory for accuracy, +and inputting warning and evacuation data specific to dams. + +Example 3, Estimating Consequences for Cascading Dam Breaches, demonstrates various ways to model cascading dam breaches. The example + highlights the modeling differences if there is a downstream dam that breaches due to an upstream dam breaching. This example primarily focuses on +differences in (1) selecting the hazard occurrence time (i.e., the date and time breach or overtopping occurs in the study area) and (2) the +delineation and parameter selection of the emergency planning zones (i.e., zones in LifeSim that can uniquely sample uncertainty parameters). + +Example 4, Estimating Consequences for Coastal Infrastructure, illustrates how LifeSim modeling differs for coastal +structures (e.g., floodwalls, seawalls, dunes, and levees) compared to riverine infrastructure (e.g., floodwalls and levees), including differences in + hydraulic data, warning times, and other consequence nuances specific to coastal infrastructure. + +Example 5, Estimating Life Loss in Flood Risk Management Planning, details how to compare life loss across an array of Planning +alternatives in LifeSim. This example shows how to use typical Planning hydraulic outputs (e.g., eight flow-frequency events typically used in +Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Flood Damage Reduction Analysis [ HEC-FDA]) in LifeSim to estimate expected annual life loss and how to utilize these +results in the Planning process. + +Example 6, Estimating Direct Economic Damages for Flood Risk Management Planning, focuses solely on generating accurate direct +economic damages with more uncertainty than the default parameters. The chapter details how to edit and create structure occupancy types, adjust +stage-damage curve uncertainty, adjust foundation height uncertainty, and adjust structure value uncertainty. + +Example 7, Estimating Consequences Using Summary Grids, demonstrates how to estimate life loss and economic damages +using summary grid output which differs from using Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) files from Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System +(HEC-RAS). This example will be helpful for individuals attempting to estimate consequences for a smaller Planning study, a study that did not utilize + unsteady flow in HEC-RAS, or a study with limited output or information from the hydraulic model. + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/03-summary-of-lifesim-inputs.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/03-summary-of-lifesim-inputs.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..e85c3d110 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/03-summary-of-lifesim-inputs.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,231 @@ +--- +title: "Summary of LifeSim Inputs" +--- + +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import TableVertical from "@site/src/components/TableVertical"; +import Figure from "@site/src/components/Figure"; + + + +# Summary of LifeSim Inputs + +## Purpose + +LifeSim requires an array of inputs in order to calculate life loss and/or economic consequences. This section details the general requirements to run + a LifeSim model and some of the recommended pre-processing that should take place outside of LifeSim. The major inputs that require pre-processing +are the emergency planning zones (EPZ), structure inventory, and the summary output polygon(s) used in the simulations. Inputs required to simulate +evacuation (i.e., road network and destinations) are discussed in the . + +## Hydraulic Data + +Each of the applications in this guide details how to import hydraulic data from Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), +including various import sources (e.g., summary grids and Hierarchical Data Format files) from HEC-RAS. There are nuances in selecting the correct +hazard occurrence time for dams, levees, cascading dam failures, etc. The hazard occurrence time is defined as the point in time in which the hazard +(e.g., dam breach, levee overtopping) occurs. It is the anchor point for all other time-dependent warning and evacuation parameters within the +simulation. + +It is recommended to reference the Hydraulic Data section for your specific application. There are other hydraulic data sources that can be imported +into LifeSim that are not discussed in the Applications Guide (e.g. FLO2D). However, they are discussed in the . + +## Structure Inventory + +To use LifeSim to calculate direct life loss and/or economic damages, a structure inventory must be imported into the study. LifeSim will not simulate + if any structure points are located outside of the EPZ. + +For LifeSim users located in the U.S., the best available structure inventory data is the most recent version of the National Structure Inventory +(NSI). The NSI is now public facing and can be leveraged by all U.S. LifeSim users from the . See the for additional information. This dataset +includes each of the LifeSim required attributes except for Ground Floor Height, Above Ground Floor Height, and Attic Height, which typically use the +default values shown above. An alternative approach to the base NSI dataset can include various county and state data including local tax assessor, +parcel, or footprint data that could help inform building location as well as some of the other attributes. Conducting a survey (direct observation or + virtually using a tool like Google Earth) within the study area could also inform the structure inventory. + +Occasionally, there may be a local dataset (e.g., from a local university, municipality, or some other study unrelated to your own) that has been +calibrated specifically for the area of interest and surpasses the precision of some of the NSI’s more general assumptions. If a local dataset is +available, either using GIS software to incorporate the localized data into your inventory or choosing to only use the localized data is often +preferred. + +The NSI was developed using parcel data, building footprints, and several other data sources to create a comprehensive statistical structure +inventory. LifeSim has the capability of downloading a base NSI inventory based on a provided study area polygon, and other methods for accessing NSI +data will likely become available in the future. If using an alternative to the NSI, a point structure inventory must be created with the following +data fields for each structure: + +Occupancy Type + +Number of Stories + +Construction Type + +Foundation Height + +Population Under 65 (Night) + +Population Over 65 (Night) + +Population Under 65 (Day) + +Population Over 65 (Day) + +Structure Value + +Content Value + +Vehicle Value + +The first four fields listed above define the structure types and directly impact the life loss calculations. The occupancy type and construction type + fields help to define the structure stability criteria in LifeSim (discussed in more detail in the following sections). Construction type +specifically denotes outer wall materials such as wood, steel, manufactured, or concrete. The number of stories and foundation height fields help +define the potential for vertical evacuation and the first-floor elevation of the structure. Population values are required to calculate life loss. + +By default, LifeSim uses the 40 occupancy types from HAZUS listed and described below, although they can be customized. The user can also add new +occupancy types in LifeSim. + + + +When importing a structure inventory into LifeSim, if structure, content, and/or vehicle values are not readily available, you can check the “Missing” + box and enter a default value. In the example below, all structures in the structure inventory have a value of $200,000. If the purpose of the study +is only to evaluate life loss and not monetary damages, it is appropriate to set these values to $0. + +
+ +## Emergency Planning Zones + +An EPZ is a geospatial area where the warning and evacuation characteristics are homogeneous; the Emergency Management Agency responsible for +evacuating people within the EPZ will have the same evacuation planning and preparedness, community participation and awareness, and types of flood +warning systems available. EPZs also allow LifeSim to have different warning and mobilization parameters for areas that experience different flooding +characteristics (e.g., breach flows and non-breach flows). Depending on the study’s purpose and level of detail there could be different parameters +for different areas, communities, or counties. Refer to the for additional information regarding EPZs. + +## Alternatives + +Each of the applications in this guide include specific details regarding creating alternatives, including selecting imminent hazard identification +times (i.e., warning times), simulating evacuation, and how many alternatives to include per hydraulic scenario. There are nuances to creating +alternatives for different types of LifeSim models. + +It is recommended to reference the Alternatives section for each application. + +## Simulations + +There are limited options to select in the Simulations window. However, a key part of LifeSim Simulations is the summary output polygon. A summary +output polygon is required when creating a simulation. The user may enter multiple summary output polygons in a single simulation. Similar to the +EPZs, the summary output polygon is a geospatial area and LifeSim will generate results based on the areas in the summary output polygon. The summary +output polygon can be a shapefile that is not an input for LifeSim. An example of this is using the U.S. Census city boundaries shapefiles to receive +LifeSim results by city. Another example is simply using the study’s EPZ as the summary output polygon if the results do not need to be specifically +delineated by area. + +(Page is intentionally left blank) + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/04-estimating-consequences-for-levees-and-floodwalls.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/04-estimating-consequences-for-levees-and-floodwalls.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..16736a51e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/04-estimating-consequences-for-levees-and-floodwalls.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,1252 @@ +--- +title: "Estimating Consequences for Levees and Floodwalls" +--- + +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import Figure from "@site/src/components/Figure"; +import FigureInline from "@site/src/components/FigureInline"; + + + +# Estimating Consequences for Levees and Floodwalls + +## Purpose + +This example demonstrates the process for estimating consequences for levees or floodwalls in LifeSim. The general process is similar to , but there +are modeling nuances specific to levees or floodwalls. This chapter focuses on the Cache Creek Levee located in Yolo County, CA. This levee system was + originally modeled in 2021 by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) Modeling, Mapping and Consequences (MMC) Production Center. This chapter +includes step-by-step instructions for importing the required data into LifeSim for a levee or floodwall breach model, how to choose appropriate +warning and evacuation data for a study area, how to simulate evacuation, and how to interpret model results. + +## Input Data + +The subsequent sections discuss the input data required to calculate direct damages and life loss for a levee or floodwall in LifeSim. The input data +sections include hydraulic data, emergency planning zones (EPZ), structure inventories, road networks, destinations, creating alternatives, and +simulating alternatives. + +## Hydraulic Data + +The Cache Creek Levee utilized output from the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). When using HEC-RAS data in LifeSim, +the hydraulic data should be in the form of Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) files. HDF files are essentially a file package of depths, velocities, and +hydraulic timing. Using HDF files allows you to simulate evacuation in LifeSim easily and with greater detail. For most levees/floodwalls, it is +recommended to simulate evacuation to accurately capture potential life loss in structures and on roads. The HEC-RAS plan HDF file and the +HEC-RAS terrain HDF file are needed for each hydraulic scenario. + +To import the hydraulic data from HEC-RAS, right click on Hydraulic Data in the study pane, and select Import from +HEC-RAS. + +
+ +From the Import from HEC-RAS window, map to the project’s HEC-RAS Plan(s) Directory by clicking on the button with the three dots. The file directory +selected should contain plan HDF files from HEC-RAS (e.g., p01.hdf). Then, map to the project’s HEC-RAS Terrain File (e.g., terrain.hdf) by clicking +on the button with three dots. Note, you will also need all terrain Tagged Image Format (TIF) files. Then, you will select the specific HEC-RAS plan +you want to import by using the dropdown next to HEC-RAS Plan. Once selected, the Name of the hydraulic scenario automatically populates, but the user + can alter the Name. Once you have the hydraulic data selected in the Import from HEC-RAS window, you can either select Import from +RAS or Import from Map. + +
+ +### Import HEC-RAS Data – Import from RAS + +If you select Import from RAS, select the cross section where the hazard (e.g., overtopping or breach) occurs within the study area. +The hydraulic engineer should supply you with the project’s breach locations, which correspond to a cross section. After selecting the correct cross +section, click OK. + +
+ +You automatically return to the Import from HEC-RAS window. A representative hydrograph is now shown in the window along with hydraulic timing +information and corresponding depths at each timestep. Within this window, enter the Hazard Occurrence date and time. The Hazard Occurrence date and +time should match the time that breach or overtopping (if applicable) begins within the study area. This information can be found in the HEC-RAS model + or provided to you by the hydraulic engineer. Press OK; the hydraulic scenario is processed and imported into LifeSim. + +
+ +### Import HEC-RAS Data – Import from Map + +Alternatively, if you select Import from Map, the RAS Map Data Selector window opens. + +
+ +To view a hydrograph along with its hydraulic timing and depths, use the Select Hydrograph Tool in the toolbar (shown below). + +
+ +The RAS Map Data Selector map window automatically displays the 2D areas used in the RAS modeling, the cross sections, the hydraulic animation, and a +base map. The user can change the base map and add data to the map window (e.g., breach locations shapefile, leveed area shapefile, structure +inventory, etc.) by clicking on the Add Data button (see below). + +
+ +For the Cache Creek Levee, adding the breach location shapefile (“LCL” in the layers shown in the figure below) and the leveed area shapefile +(“POLYGON” in the layers shown in the figure below) to the map window was useful in finding the where the hazard first occurs near the breach +location. + +
+ +Once you find a representative hydrograph for the hydraulic scenario, click OK. The Import from HEC-RAS window is now shown. The new +window displays hydraulic timing information as well as the same representative hydrograph. Again, the Hazard Occurrence date and time should match +the time that breach or overtopping (if applicable) begins within the study area. Press OK; the hydraulic scenario will be processed +and imported into LifeSim. + +
+ +Repeat this process for each of the study’s hydraulic scenarios. + +## Emergency Planning Zones + +As discussed in the , EPZs are polygons that allow LifeSim to have different warning and mobilization parameters for different geographic areas and/or + for areas that experience different flooding characteristics. For most levees and floodwalls, the shapefile used for the EPZ should represent the +estimated leveed area. Otherwise, it is likely that both economic damages and life loss estimates would be inflated due to including consequences that + are outside of the leveed area. Presumably you are estimating the risk of a levee or floodwall; therefore, you need to understand where the +incremental risk (i.e., “levee risk” or the risk associated with the levee) is, which is within the leveed area. + +For most levees and floodwalls, the shapefile used for the EPZ should represent the estimated leveed area. The National Levee Database (NLD) is a +resource that includes most floodwalls and levees within the U.S. (). The NLD shows the leveed area for each project and allows you to download the +leveed area as a shapefile, which should be used as the EPZ for the entire study. + +If the project is not included in the NLD or you are unable to access the NLD, it is recommended to obtain the HEC-RAS model’s 2D mesh area and use +this shapefile as the EPZ. It’s also recommended to discuss what should be considered the leveed area with your hydraulic engineer and any other team +members on the study. + +### EPZ Warning and Protective Action Parameters + +Once you have a representative shapefile for the EPZ, the next step is to assign the Warning and Protective Action Data, including the Warning +Issuance Delay, Warning Diffusion (First Alert Curves), and Protective Action Initiation (PAI) parameters. + +There are a few types of resources to consider when gathering information about the area’s warning and evacuation procedures: (1) any expert opinion +consequence elicitation conducted in the city or county in question within 5 years of the current analysis, (2) the USACE Levee Screening Tool (LST), + and (3) local, county, and/or state Emergency Management Agency (EMA) websites and social media. Reaching out to communities directly, or the +responsible USACE districts, and asking questions to gauge the need for a more formal consequence elicitation is perfectly acceptable if the data +available is in question. + +If these resources are not available for your project, you should select LifeSim’s preset Unknown parameters for Warning Issuance Delay, Hazard +Communication Delay, and Protective Action Initiation curves within the EPZ editor. + +The subsequent sections discuss the three resources that should be considered when developing your warning and evacuation parameters. + +#### Using Existing Consequence Elicitation Data to Inform LifeSim Parameters + +Over recent years, many consequence elicitations have been conducted within the U.S. to support risk assessments. The consequence elicitations are +generally conducted for various high-risk cities and/or counties. When starting a new LifeSim model or risk assessment, check if an elicitation was +already conducted within your study area. The current consequence elicitation directory is stored on a and is for internal use only. Reaching out to +the responsible USACE district is a perfectly acceptable way to assess whether or not an elicitation has been or needs to be conducted for your study. + If an elicitation was completed, you can likely use most of these same parameters for your LifeSim model. It is recommended to review the elicitation + results, including the meeting notes and elicited LifeSim parameters, to ensure the parameters are logical for your levee project. If the elicitation + was conducted for a dam, review the notes to ensure that the elicitation could be applied to a levee. There may be instances in which you do not feel + confident that the previous elicitation results directly apply to your project, which could cause you to gather other resources to make an informed +decision. + +#### Using the Levee Screening Tool to Inform LifeSim Parameters + +The Levee Screening Tool (LST) () can contain helpful information regarding expected emergency action plans, community awareness, and warning systems +to inform the EPZ’s warning and evacuation data. Within the LST, a levee may have several segments with individual screenings. It is recommended to +look at the segment with the most screenings, or to identify the screening that was completed most recently; this screening will have the most +up-to-date information. Generally, all levee units are rescreened as a system, but there can be special instances in which this is not the case. + +If you attempt to login to the LST and are unable, there are instructions on the login page to request/create an account. + +The figure below shows the screenings for the segments of Cache Creek Levee available in the LST. + +
+ +As shown in the figure below, Cache Creek Levee was last screened several years ago in 2015. The user may find that this information is not recent +enough to use in the LifeSim study. Since the 6 levee segments were all screened at the same, I selected the segment that has the most screenings: +Willow Slough Bypass – Unit 1, left bank. + +
+ +After selecting a levee unit screening, navigate to the Consequences section of the LST. + +
+ +This Consequences section of the LST shows key consequences information such as Evacuation Planning, Community Awareness, and Flood Warning +Effectiveness. Each of these elements can be helpful in determining preset LifeSim curves if the explanations of the scores are detailed, recent, and +logical. The details for Cache Creek Levee’s Evacuation Effectiveness Information are shown below. + +
+ +The Evacuation Planning factor may help determine the Warning Issuance Delay. As shown above, the latest Evacuation Planning information is from 2012 +and 2013. This may not be the most up-to-date information; it is recommended to confirm the information by looking into the Emergency Management +Agency’s website (see next section for details). If the Evacuation Planning factor was given an Acceptable rating (with quality reasoning) you would +select an optimistic Warning Issuance Delay curve, such as Well Prepared. + +The Community Awareness factor can be used to inform the Protective Action Initiation curve. If the rating is Acceptable and the explanation includes +information about recent flood events/evacuations, public education campaigns, and flood preparedness as a topic in the media, then an optimistic PAI +curve could be warranted, such as the Perception: High / Preparedness: High. However, if the rating is Unacceptable and none of the previously stated +factors are included in the explanation, a more pessimistic PAI curve may be warranted, such as the Perception: Low / Preparedness: Low. + +The Flood Warning Effectiveness factor can be used to inform the Warning Diffusion/First Alert curves. If this factor received an Acceptable rating +and the explanation details several different types of warning channels (e.g., radio, media, reverse 911, and texts), then an optimistic Warning +Diffusion curve should be used, such as the Moderately Fast or the Fast curves. + +If the ratings and explanations could defend a variety of LifeSim parameters, it is recommended performing sensitivity runs using a variety of +parameters to determine if life loss changes significantly and then seek additional information from the local sponsor and/or the project’s district +office. The local personnel should be able to provide more information to determine final LifeSim parameters if necessary. Additionally, you can +provide a variety of results in your study and clearly state the differences between the sets of alternatives and simulations. The variety of +scenarios provide uncertainty to the life loss estimates, especially if there is some uncertainty regarding some of the warning and evacuation +parameters. Ensure there is defensible reasoning for each uncertainty parameter. + +#### Using Emergency Management Agency Websites to Inform LifeSim Parameters + +Looking through the county’s Emergency Management Agency’s (EMA) website or social media provides insight on the area’s emergency procedures, recent +updates to emergency action plans or hazard mitigation plans (if applicable), and what warning channels are available, which can inform the EPZ’s +warning and evacuation data. + +The Cache Creek Levee is in Yolo County, CA. This section discusses the emergency procedures and resources from Yolo County Emergency Management and +demonstrates how to use this type of information to select appropriate warning and evacuation parameters. As shown in the screenshot below, Yolo +County’s website links to Current Emergencies and Incidents (listed in both English and Spanish), Flooding Resources, and the county’s relatively +recent updates to emergency preparedness and resources. + +
+ +As you scroll down this webpage, there are additional links about how to prepare for an emergency, signing up for Yolo Alert, and contact information +for the Office of Emergency Services. After clicking on the link to sign up for emergency alerts, you are sent to a webpage to sign up for Yolo +County’s warning system, Everbridge, which is an advanced public warning system. + +
+ +While selecting uncertainty parameters for your EPZ, consider if the area experienced flooding recently, especially large flood events that resulted +in evacuations. This information helps select warning and evacuation data in LifeSim (e.g., heightened community awareness, recent experience writing +and sending out warnings, etc.). Regardless of the curves you select for your study, defensible reasoning for each warning and evacuation parameter is + needed. + +### Importing an Emergency Planning Zone + +This section discusses importing an EPZ into LifeSim and how to use the information discussed in the previous sections to determine the final +parameters used in the study. For Cache Creek Levee, the readily available warning and evacuation data, the local EMA website, and recent flood +warnings and evacuations are heavily relied upon to determine appropriate warning and evacuation parameters. + +Once you determine the EPZ shapefile and gather information on the area’s warning and evacuation data, import the EPZ shapefile into LifeSim. Right +click on Emergency Planning Zones in the study tree and select Import EPZs from Shapefile. + +
+ +The Import Emergency Planning Zones window opens. First, map to the EPZ shapefile. You can do this by either utilizing the Emergency Planning Zone +Polygon Shapefile dropdown, which displays the polygon shapefiles that are currently in your Map Layers, or you can map to the shapefile by clicking +on the button with the three dots next to dropdown. + +
+ +Then, designate one of the shapefile’s fields as the Emergency Planning Zone Name Field. If you are importing a shapefile composed of multiple areas, +or EPZs (e.g., two counties), the Emergency Planning Zone Name Field needs to have unique values. After selecting the Name Field, select the warning +and evacuation data for the EPZ(s). For the Cache Creek Levee, the National Levee Database named the leveed area “Sugarfield – Woodland NE”. + +As stated previously, information from the Yolo County Office of Emergency Services website is heavily utilized to select warning and evacuation data. + To accurately select the Warning Issuance Delay curve to be used in the study, consider if there are message templates, if the county has recently +(within the past 10 years) sent out an evacuation warning, especially within the leveed area, and if there are trainings or standard operating +procedures for writing warning messages. + +When utilizing only the local emergency management website, some of this information may be difficult to find. It is recommended to do additional +research about the leveed area and any flooding that may have occurred in this area. For example, after a brief internet search, there multiple +articles reporting that the Cache Creek Levee was overtopped in 2019. Yolo County Sheriff’s Office released evacuation notices via Twitter (see +screenshot below) and through Yolo County AlertSense (Everbridge). Yolo County emergency managers have recently sent out warning and evacuation +messages directly related to a levee safety emergency occurring at Cache Creek Levee. + +
+ +Because we don’t fully understand how quickly the warning was sent out relative to when Yolo County was notified of the emergency, the Moderately +Prepared warning issuance delay curve was selected to allow for more uncertainty in the delay time. The most likely sampled warning issuance delay +time is 16 minutes (about 21% likelihood), but there is still probability that the delay is longer or shorter (e.g., there is a 12% likelihood that +the delay is 50 minutes; there is a 15% likelihood the delay is 10 minutes.) + +
+ +Next, select First Alert Diffusion curves for the EPZ. This parameter is heavily influenced by the amount of communication channels the county would +use during a levee safety emergency. As shown in the section above, Yolo County has an opt-in alert system. The website also shows Yolo County uses +Everbridge, which is a robust mass alert system. Everbridge distributes messages via phone calls, texts, and emails. Additionally, following the 2019 +Cache Creek Levee overtopping, it’s likely that several people signed up for alert messages through AlertSense. It is known that Yolo County utilizes +social media, radio, and news to distribute a warning message. + +Given what we do know about the available communication channels, the warning message would likely be distributed to the relatively small leveed area +quickly. However, since AlertSense (Everbridge) is an opt-in system, and it is unclear what percentage of the population protected by Cache Creek has +signed up for this system, it is not recommended to assume the most optimistic First Alert curve. With our baseline understanding of Yolo County’s +available warning channels, the Moderately Fast First Alert Diffusion curve was selected. + +
+ +Finally, select the PAI curve. Recent experiences (within the past decade) with flooding and/or evacuation are reason to assume more optimistic PAI +curves; conversely, if the community doesn’t have a history of flooding, the selected PAI curves should be more pessimistic. The residents protected +by Cache Creek Levee experienced flooding due to levee overtopping in 2019. As shown in the evacuation order posted by the Yolo County’s Sheriff +Office on Twitter, approximately 100 people were asked to evacuate from the Cache Creek leveed area. However, because the effectiveness of the +evacuation order is unknown, it is recommended to allow for more uncertainty in the PAI curve. The Perception: High / Preparedness: Low PAI curve was +selected for Cache Creek Levee to both account for the area’s recent experience with flooding and witnessing the potential consequences (Perception: +High) and uncertainty regarding the population’s readiness to mobilize (Preparedness: Low) since there is limited knowledge on preparedness. + +
+ +The user is encouraged to perform additional sensitivity tests on parameters that have significant knowledge uncertainty. In this example, there is +limited information on the community’s preparedness during a flood emergency. Therefore, the user should run simulations with the Perception: High / +Preparedness: Low PAI curve as well as the Perception: High / Preparedness: Moderate PAI curve to better understand the model’s sensitivity to the +selected PAI curve. Then, the user may want to run the Perception: Unknown / Preparedness: Unknown curve as an additional sensitivity test. Regardless + of your final model parameters, ensure there is ample justification for the selected warning evacuation parameters and that they accurately represent + the impacted areas. + +Ensure the warning and evacuation parameter assumptions are clearly documented. + +After selecting your uncertainty parameters, enter a name for the EPZ, press OK, and the EPZ is imported into the LifeSim study. + +## Structure Inventory + +### Importing a Structure Inventory + +To import a structure inventory from an existing point shapefile, navigate to the Study pane in your model, right click on Structure +Inventories, and select Import from Point Shapefile. + +
+ +Then, either select the Structure Inventory Shapefile from the dropdown, which is available if the shapefile is in the Map Layers pane of the LifeSim +model, or map to the shapefile by clicking on the button with the three dots next to the dropdown. Notably, there are several required attributes in +order for LifeSim to properly calculate economic damages and life loss. The list of required attributes from the Import from Point Shapefile window is + shown below. + +
+ +Once you match up your shapefile’s attributes (Import Attributes) with the corresponding LifeSim Required Attributes (an example of matched up +attributes using the NSI is shown in the figure below), click Next at the bottom right. If the shapefile is missing certain +attributes (e.g., Other Value in the figure below), you can check the “Missing” checkbox and enter a default value. This value will be the same for +each structure in the inventory. + +
+ +Then, match the occupancy types in LifeSim with the occupancy types included in your structure inventory shapefile. If using the NSI, typically the +occupancy types exactly match the occupancy type names in LifeSim, but the user should scan through the list to ensure everything is matched up +correctly. If these are mismatched, the depth-damage functions, evacuation parameters, and submergence criteria will not be correct for that structure + type, which impacts the accuracy of your economic damages and life loss results. + +
+ +After the occupancy types are assigned and reviewed, click Next. The final step for importing the inventory is the Stability Criteria + Assignment. LifeSim has default stability criteria assignments for wood unanchored structures (e.g., mobile homes), wood anchored structures, masonry + structures, and steel structures. For NSI users, you should use the default stability criteria shown below. + +
+ +You can create additional criteria rules by clicking Create Rule. A new rule appears in the Rule List; enter a Rule Name and set the +logic for the new stability criteria. For example, if you want to adjust the criteria for Wood 2-story structures to use the USACE – Wood 2-story +stability criteria, select the following information: + +
+ +Once all structures have been assigned a stability criterion, click Finish. The structure inventory is then imported into LifeSim. + +### Editing the Structure Inventory + +After importing a structure inventory into LifeSim, edits to the attribute table and/or structure placement are likely needed. To edit the imported +structure inventory, right click on the study’s structure inventory and click Show in Map Window. + +
+ +Navigate to the Map Layers pane. Right click on the structure inventory (NSI2_CacheCreek below) and select Edit. You can now edit the + placement of structure points in the map window and edit structure attributes in the attribute table. + +
+ +Once you are done editing the structure inventory, right click on the structure inventory in the Map Layers pane (NSI2_CacheCreek in the figure below) + and select Stop Editing. + +
+ +A pop-up window then asks if you want to save your changes to the study’s structure inventory file. Select Yes and the changes are +reflected in the structure inventory both in the Study pane and Map Layers pane. + +
+ +## Simulating Evacuation + +For most levee/floodwall projects, evacuation is simulated in LifeSim. In addition to the hydraulic data, EPZs, and structure inventory, you need to import + (1) a road network and (2) destination points to simulate evacuation in LifeSim. The recommended workflow is to begin with importing a road network +and then create destination points. + +### Road Network + +There are two ways to import a road network: (1) download and import a road network from OpenStreetMap (OSM) within LifeSim and (2) import a polyline +shapefile. Unless you have detailed data from a previous study or from local stakeholders, you will download and import a road network from +OpenStreetMap. + +#### Downloading a Road Network in LifeSim + +To download and import a road network, navigate to the Study Pane, right click on Road Networks, and select Import Road +Network From OpenStreetMap. + +
+ +The Import Road Network From OpenStreetMap window opens. The primary data needed to import a road network is a bounding polygon shapefile. The +bounding polygon determines what roads are downloaded from OpenStreetMap. The easiest bounding polygon to use for import is the shapefile used for the + EPZ; additionally, the bounding polygon needs to be in the same projection as the LifeSim study Once you select the polygon, type in a bounding +polygon buffer (the value represents miles). + +As shown below, the Cache Creek EPZ shapefile is being used for import. The Bounding Polygon Buffer is set to 1 mile. The additional mile of road +network allows for more realistic traffic congestion in the simulation and increases the accuracy of potential evacuation routes. There should be some + amount of buffer included on the bounding polygon for import, unless the selected shapefile is already buffered or larger than the leveed area. +Selecting an appropriate buffer size depends on the size of the study area, inundation extents, the density of the population, and known evacuation +routes. Do not make the buffer too large as this imports many additional road segments that (1) may not improve the evacuation accuracy and (2) can +significantly increase simulation run times as depths and velocities on each road segment are calculated (i.e., more road segments lead to longer +simulation times). + +
+ +As shown above, there are several types of road segments included in OpenStreetMap road networks. LifeSim has certain road types automatically +selected and deselected for import. However, depending on the study area, you may need to include additional road segment types. For example, if the +study area is primarily rural or farmland, you would want to select tertiary (“The next most important roads in a country’s system”), residential +(“Roads which serve as an access to housing without function connecting settlements. Often lined with housing”), and track (“Roads for mostly +agricultural or forestry uses”) for import. For larger or primarily urban study areas, it is recommended to import only the default, or baseline road +types to reduce simulation run times. Once you have selected or deselected the road segment types that should be included in your road network, select + OK, and the road network downloads and imports into the study. + +#### Import Road Network from Shapefile + +The other method of importing a road network is to use an existing polyline shapefile. Navigate to the study pane, right click on Road +Networks, and select Import Road Network from Shapefile. + +
+ +The Import Road Network window opens. Map to the Road Network Shapefile by either using the dropdown (only polyline shapefiles that are in the map +window are shown) or by clicking the button with the three dots next to the dropdown. Then, match the CFCC Name Field to the corresponding attribute from + the polyline shapefile, which should be an already existing attribute if you are importing a road network from a previous study. Then, match the +One-Way Field (with an identifier) and the Vertical Offset attribute. These fields are optional but increase the accuracy of the road network. Once +you match up the field(s) with your shapefile’s attribute(s), select OK and the road network imports. + +
+ +#### Editing a Road Network + +After importing a road network into LifeSim, edits to the polygon and/or the road network’s attributes are likely needed. OSM provides a base for an +accurate road network. However, there are aspects to the data that may need to be edited and confirmed. One of the key components of a road network is + the “Vertical Offset” field, which is found in the road network attribute table. This field accounts for if a road segment should have some amount of + vertical offset relative to the terrain elevation, such as a bridge or highway overpass. The default vertical offset for all road segments in OSM is +0. Vertical offsets should be confirmed and edited throughout the study area. Focus on areas you can visibly see road segments over waterways (i.e., +bridges) and areas where highways are most concentrated (there may be overpasses). To view the attribute table and the Vertical Offset field, right +click on the imported road network from the Study pane and select Show in Map Window. Navigate to the Map Layers pane, right click on + the road network, and select Open Attribute Table. + +
+ +
+ +For Cache Creek Levee, there are several highway overpasses in the study’s road network. Many of these overpasses lead to destination points and need +to have accurate vertical offsets. The highlighted road segments shown below are parts of highways located over a different highway. A vertical offset + of 40 feet was given to both segments. Without accounting for the 40 feet of vertical offset within the attribute table, LifeSim may wrongly show +this overpass as inundated. This could negatively and incorrectly impact evacuation to the south, potentially affecting estimated direct life loss. +Use best available data to determine accurate vertical offsets (e.g., Google Street View). + +
+ +
+ +It is recommended to save the road network edits as you progress. For example, save the road network and the LifeSim study after making a few road +network edits, then make additional edits to the road network and save again. Several edits to one shapefile can overload LifeSim’s memory and may +crash the program prior to saving your edits. + +### Destination Points + +The other key element for simulating evacuation is destination points, which represent where the evacuating population should/will go to reach safety. + To import destinations, a point shapefile is needed. You can create the required point shapefile in LifeSim or in another geospatial software (e.g., +ArcGIS Pro or QGIS). + +#### Creating a Point Shapefile in LifeSim + +Locate the toolbar at the top of the map window. Click on the down arrow next to the folder with a plus sign ( +{"\n"}) and select Create + New. + +
+ +The Create New Vector Features File window opens. Click on the button with three dots to select the file output location. + +
+ +A new window opens that allows you to map to your desired file location. Name the shapefile and click Save. + +
+ +Select the appropriate Feature Type from the dropdown (Point for a Destinations file) and either use the map projection (recommended) or map to +another project file. Press OK and your new point shapefile is added to the map window. + +
+ +To add features within the point shapefile, navigate to the map pane, right click on the point shapefile you created, and select +Edit. Navigate to the toolbar at the top of the map window and click the Add New Features button. This now allows +you to create new points, which represent evacuation destinations. + +
+ +It is best to place destination points directly on road segments, so it is recommended to also have your road network in the map window. If the point +is not placed directly on a road segment, the closest road segment is assumed to be the destination point. When creating destination points, most of +the points should be on major highways and roadways. The destination points should generally not be shelters or large buildings because there is no +way to set a limit on how many people can evacuate to each destination point. This would lead to inaccuracies in your evacuation simulation. + +In general, attempt to place each of the destination points an equal distance away from the study area. If one destination is significantly closer to +the study area, LifeSim will direct most of the population to this destination point since it is the closest distance and most likely the quickest +evacuation route. The group evacuating selects which destination point to evacuate based on the shortest travel time (i.e., accounting for traffic +congestion), not the shortest travel distance. Depending on the study area and available information, you may want to place some destination points +closer or farther away from the study area (e.g., If you want more people to evacuate east rather than north, place the destination points to the east + closer to the study area than the northern destination points). + +For Cache Creek, the study area is most densely populated in the western portion of the leveed area. The flooding source is along the eastern portion +of the leveed area, so the destination points located to the west are the preferred destination routes, therefore the northern and western destination + points are closer to the population center compared to the destination points to the east of the leveed area. + +
+ +Once you have placed all your initial destination points in the map window, edit the attribute table to give each feature unique attributes. As you +place destinations, new rows are automatically created in the point shapefile’s attribute table. The figure below shows that as two new points are +placed in the map window, two new rows are created. The attribute shown in the attribute table (“Id”) automatically populates as a blank attribute; +each point needs a unique “Id” value. + +
+ +To import a destinations file, at least one of the fields in the attribute table needs to have unique naming (Destinations Naming Identifier). The Id +field could be used, but it’s recommended to create a new field in the shapefile’s attribute table. To create a new field, click Open Field +Calculator. + +
+ +The Field Calculator window opens. Select Create New Column and type a field title (e.g., Name). Within the Expression box, type “=” +with some text, which automatically sets the field type to be text rather than an integer (e.g., type “=RoadName”). Then press +Execute. + +
+ +The attribute table should now include a new field with placeholder text. You are now able to edit each attribute’s name. + +
+ +For clarity and ease of use, each destination point should be named based on the road it’s placed on. + +
+ +Press the Stop Editing Feature Session button ( +{"\n"}) and click +Yes after the Save Map Edit dialog box pops up. + +#### Importing and Editing Destinations File(s) + +After creating a point shapefile that represents the study area’s destination points, you can import the shapefile into LifeSim as a destinations +file. Navigate to the Study pane, right click on Destinations, click Import Destinations from Shapefile. + +
+ +The Import Destinations from Point Shapefile window opens. Enter a name for the destinations file. Then, select the point shapefile you want to import. + If the shapefile is in the Map Layers pane, it will be available via the dropdown. Otherwise, click on the three dots next to the dropdown to map to +the destinations shapefile file location. + +
+ +Then, select the Destination Identifier Field. For the destinations to import into LifeSim, each destination must have a unique name (i.e., the field +cannot contain blank attributes and the selected field cannot contain duplicate names). Press OK and the destinations import into the + study. + +
+ +Once the destinations file is imported, ensure you edit the study’s destination file, not the original shapefile created in the Map Layer pane. Like +editing the study’s structure inventory, add the newly imported destination file to the map window, right click on the file (in the Map Layers pane), +and select Edit. You can now add destinations, edit the destination placement, and edit the attribute table. After saving any edits, +these changes are reflected in the study’s destinations file. + +## Creating Alternatives + +Once you have all the input data imported in the LifeSim study, you can begin creating alternatives. To create an alternative, navigate to the Study +pane, right click on Alternatives, and click Create New Alternative. + +
+ +To create an alternative for a levee, include all input data required to calculate life loss and simulate evacuation. For most levee studies, this +includes hydraulic data, a structure inventory, an EPZ, a road network, and destinations. Select the input data through the dropdown menus within the +Create New Alternative window. In addition to the input data, other warning and evacuation parameters need to be entered for each alternative. Two +other inputs required to create an alternative are the Imminent Hazard Identification Time and the Hazard Communication Delay. Input values (in hour +units) for both parameters. If you have multiple EPZs, enter the information for these parameters for each EPZ. + +
+ +The example alternative below (LCL_TOL_Min; i.e., a minimal warning scenario for a hazard occurrence at the Levee Control Location during a Top of +Levee hydraulic loading) shows the selected data inputs required to simulate traffic and calculate life loss for the LCL TOL hydraulic scenario as +well as the entries for the relative hazard identification time and hazard communication delay. The relative hazard identification time should be +reflective of the community’s ability to monitor the project, how early the event could be forecasted in advance, and the type of failure mode. For +example, if the emergency managers would have little time to identify a rapidly developing breach, the relative hazard identification time would be +close to the time the hazard occurs. The example alternative (LCL_TOL_Min) is representative of a situation in which the breach occurs relatively +quickly. You can create multiple alternatives for each hydraulic scenario with various warning times if there is uncertainty surrounding the relative +hazard identification time. This provides a range of possible life loss outcomes. + +Additionally, determining the hazard communication delay depends on how quickly the hazard would be communicated from the project personnel to local +emergency managers. A smaller delay (or no delay) would occur if the local emergency managers were onsite with other project personnel while the +situation develops. A longer delay would occur if the local emergency managers were unaware of the hazard, there are power and electricity outages, +and there are no redundant technologies available to maintain communication with project personnel. The project’s emergency action plan provides +insight regarding the potential hazard communication delay. The hazard communication delay in the example alternative represents a situation in which +the project personnel are able to contact the local emergency managers relatively quickly, but there is still a slight delay. + +
+ +## Creating Simulations + +Once you have created alternatives, you need to simulate the alternatives to compute life loss and economic damages results. To create a simulation, +navigate to the Study Pane, scroll to the bottom, right click on Simulations, and select Create New Simulation. + +
+ +The Create New Simulation window will open. From this window, you can simulate at various hazard occurrence times of day to account for interpolating +population estimates within structures. Additionally, you can specify the number of iterations, select summary polygons for result aggregation, and +select which alternatives to run. + +Below is an example of a simulation for breach location 2 (BL2) alternatives, including a daytime (2pm) and a nighttime (2am) hazard occurrence, that +simulates each hazard occurrence time with 1,000 iterations. LifeSim simulates the alternatives assuming the hazard occurrence time is at 2am and then + again assuming the hazard occurrence time is at 2pm. These times are generally selected because there is no interpolation of daytime and nighttime +population at these times in the model. If other times are selected, LifeSim will interpolate between the daytime and nighttime population values +included in the structure inventory. + +In the example, only one summary polygon is included, which is the EPZ shapefile. You can include multiple summary polygons if you want to see results + by county, city, census tract, arrival time, depth, etc. You can include any shapefile as a summary polygon, but the Summary Name Field must include +a unique name for each attribute. + +
+ +Within the Create New Simulation window, there are an array of options that the user can customize for each simulation. Click on +Options (located in the top left corner) and select Computation Engine Options. + +
+ +The Computation Engine Options window opens, and you can customize (1) the number of threads for the simulation (the higher the number of threads, the + faster the simulation runs), (2) whether the simulation generates structure summary results, (3) whether the simulation generates road summary +results, and (4) whether you want to enforce vehicular spillback. More information about the appropriate times to uncheck these boxes is discussed in +the LifeSim 2.0 User Manual (See the Simulation – Computation Engine Options section). + +
+ +Click Save in the Computation Engine Options window after you make changes. Press OK in the Create New Simulation +window after selecting the hazard occurrence times, entering the number of iterations, selecting a summary polygon, and checking the alternatives to +be included in the simulation. The simulation you created is now located under Simulations in the study pane. Right click on the new simulation’s name + and select Run Simulation. + +
+ +## Understanding and Interpreting Results + +After running simulations, you can view your results by result plots, result tables, and result maps. Each way to view results is uniquely beneficial +in (1) understanding your life loss and economic damage estimates and (2) quality checking your results. It is unlikely that your first simulation +will be your last simulation—edits to the structure inventory, EPZs, road network and/or destination points may be needed to obtain accurate and +representative results. + +### Result Plots + +The first way to view results is by result plots. Right click on the already run simulation and select View Results Plots. The +Simulation Results Plots window opens. The first tab of the window display is the Box and Whisker – Time of Day. The user can toggle which alternative + results are displayed in the whisker plot and what data is shown in the plot (Plot Summary Data By dropdown in the bottom right corner). You can also + view results across various summary polygons or summary zones. + +This tab is helpful in seeing if the results fall within the expected order of life loss magnitude. As an example (from the figure below), the BL2 TOL + breach scenario should result in more life loss than the BL2 75% breach due to the higher water surface elevation and because they use the same data +inputs and warning time. If the BL2 75% breach resulted in more life loss than the BL2 TOL breach, the alternatives may include the wrong hydraulic +scenarios, or the user would need to confer with the hydraulic engineer about the issue. Additionally, this tab helps the user understand if life loss + is likely to be higher at various times of day (e.g., daytime versus nighttime life loss). + +
+ +The next tab is the Box and Whisker – Alternatives. This tab is similar to the Box and Whisker – Time of Day plot in terms of the data displayed, but +the data is displayed differently. The key difference between the two tabs is you can toggle which Time of Day results are displayed in the Box and +Whisker – Alternatives tab. You can view just the 02:00 or 14:00 results. In the example below, only the 14:00 results are shown. + +
+ +Another key result to analyze and review is the Life Loss on Roads, which is shown in the figure below. Overall, there is little estimated life loss +on roads within the BL2 results. If the life loss on roads makes up most of the total life loss, the user should review the road network and +destinations to ensure the simulated evacuations are logical, that there is not high life loss on particular road segments, and that all the road +segments are connected properly. For example, ensure most of the life loss on roads is not incorrectly occurring on a single bridge that should have a + vertical offset., + +
+ +#### Generating and Viewing Detailed Output in Results Plots + +The best ways to identify whether there are issues with the evacuation data are to (1) animate the simulated evacuation and observe if there are +traffic issues of any kind and (2) understand which destinations were utilized the most by evacuees and ensure the most used destinations make sense +given the study area. To view both the evacuation animation and the cumulation destination arrivals, you’ll need to generate detailed output. To get +this output, go to the Iterations tab from the Results Plot window, left click on the iteration that you want more detailed information for, such as +animating evacuation, and click Generate Detailed Output in the bottom right corner. + +As you can see in the example below, I selected an iteration that has the highest life loss on roads to better understand potential evacuation issues. + If there are several iterations with high life loss on roads, it may be best to select an iteration that is representative of the average life loss +on roads. Sometimes high life loss on roads in some iterations is solely due to a timing issue rather than a traffic issue; the highest life loss on +roads results may occur when there is little warning and many people are on the road minutes prior of the floodwaters arriving. + +
+ +Within the Results Plots window, go to the Detailed Output Results to see additional information specific to the iteration you generated detailed +output for. Within this tab, there are three sub-tabs (Time Evacuating Histogram, Cumulative Evacuation Outflow, and Cumulative Destination Arrivals). + Each iteration you create detailed output for is included as an option for viewing on the left side of the tab. The first sub-tab you can view is the + Time Evacuating Histogram, which shows you how long it takes for people to evacuate safely to a destination point. This histogram can be very +informative, especially if you think traffic would be an issue in your study area. For example, if the study area is very populated and everyone +evacuates within 5 minutes, this may indicate that your destination points should be placed farther away from the EPZ to allow more realistic traffic +conditions to occur in the model. + +
+ +The second sub-tab is the Cumulative Evacuation Outflow, which shows the relationship between the number of evacuees and the duration of the +evacuation and compares the number of mobilized individuals to the number of people who reach safety. This provides additional information on how long + it generally takes the Population at Risk (PAR) to initiate protective action and when the hazard begins to disrupt evacuation. + +
+ +The third and final sub-tab is the Cumulative Destination Arrivals. This shows how many vehicles traveled to each destination point. This plot can be +very useful when conducting a quality control review of the evacuation results and life loss on roads. As you can see in the example plot below, the +113-S destination point was overwhelmingly utilized compared to the other destination points. To understand if the destination arrivals are logical, +you need to understand your study area. Depending on the project, the terrain of the area, the location of the hazard, and the availability of egress +routes dictates if there are viable destination points in all directions. In many situations, only a couple of directions are likely to offer +favorable destination points. For Cache Creek Levee, the inundation extents cut off egress routes to the north, east, and west. Therefore, most of the + vehicles were expected to evacuate to the south, which is exactly what is shown in the plot. + +
+ +#### Animating Evacuation + +The other key data available following generating detailed output is Evacuation Animation. To view the animation, right click on the already run +simulation, select View Results Maps, and the Result Map Selector window opens. Scroll to the alternative that you generated detailed + output for, check the box that includes “Evacuation Animation” in the title, and select the corresponding hydraulic scenario (02:00 BL2 TOL scenario +in this example). Then click Send Selected To Map Window. + +
+ +You can then view the evacuation for this specific iteration. You can play and pause the animation by utilizing the button in the middle. You can make + the animation speed up or slow down by using the Slower to Faster scroller bar; you can also manually speed up and slow down the animation by using +the top scroller bar. The animation shows when structures are warned (yellow structures by default), when structures are inundated (red structures), +when vehicles evacuate (blue cars), and when vehicles are caught (red cars). This is a useful tool for understanding if your road network and +destinations are set up appropriately. When animating evacuation, you can zoom into specific areas to see if there is significant traffic or +significant life loss on roads and confirm if the life loss results are valid or if there are potential issues with the road network. Examples of +potential issues are disconnected road segments, road segments that may be too long and are showing vehicles as caught that are not actually +inundated, and vertical offsets that have not been appropriately added. + +
+ +### Result Maps + +Another way to view if life loss on roads appears reasonable is to view various Roads Summary maps. These layers are accessible in the Result Maps +Selector. + +
+ +Select the alternative results you want to add to the map window, adjust the value bins and corresponding symbols as needed (these can also be +adjusted later in the Map Layer pane) and click Send Selected to Map Window. The Roads Summary polyline shapefile should now be in +the Map Layers pane. You can see in the map window if there are roads with high average life loss. Additionally, it’s helpful to look through Roads +Summary attribute table (right click on the shapefile; click Open Attribute Table). + +
+ +Within the Roads Summary Attribute table, scroll to the right and find the field titled Life_Loss_Mean. Double click on this field name to sort from +the lowest life loss to the highest life loss; double click on the field name again to sort from the highest life loss to the lowest life loss (you +can also right click on the field’s header and select ascending or descending). As shown in the example below, life loss occurs on only five road +segments for Cache Creek Levee. If the mean life loss for one of these segments was high relative to the total mean life loss, this would indicate +that there may be a road network connectivity issue or an unwanted traffic build-up. You would then look at the evacuation animation again, focusing +on those high life loss road segments to identify the potential issue. + +
+ +In addition to performing a quality check on the life loss on roads and evacuation data inputs, you should always review the life loss in structures +results. Common issues or errors that can be caught when looking through the results is (1) a high amount of population within structures that should +have a relatively small population (e.g., a RES1 structure containing a total population of 25), (2) the structure stability was not linked to the +correct structure types (e.g., a RES2 structure having an engineered structure stability assignment), (3) a field was not linked properly when importing + a structure inventory (e.g., absence of values assigned to vehicles, resulting in all values being populated as $0), or (4) structure points are not + placed accurately. + +An efficient way of reviewing the life loss in structures results is to look through various results maps. To add these layers to the map window, +right click on the already run simulation, and select View Results Maps. The Result Map Selector window opens. Select the structure +summaries from the scenarios you want to add to the Map Layers pane and click Send Selected to Map Window. To conduct a full quality +check on the structures, add structure summaries for all times of day. If you only analyze the daytime Structure Summary (14:00), you could miss any +errors occurring with the nighttime population (02:00). + +
+ +Once the Structure Summary shapefile(s) have been added to the Map Layers pane, right click on the shapefile, and select Open Attribute +Table. + +
+ +Similar to viewing the Road Summary results, scroll to the Life_Loss_Total_Mean field. Double click on the field name to sort from the lowest to the +highest life loss; double click on the field name again to sort from the highest to the lowest life loss. Then, confirm that the life loss results +align with the structure type and that the structure point placement for the structures with relatively high average life loss is accurate. + +
+ +Begin confirming the placement of structure points by selecting the first structure while the life loss is sorted from highest to lowest. Right click +on the row number (3569 in the example below) and select Zoom to Selected. + +
+ +LifeSim then zooms to the selected structure, and you can confirm the point placement of the structure with the highest life loss. For Cache Creek +Levee, the highest life loss occurs in a commercial building as shown in the figure below. The structure placement is in the middle of the building +footprint, which confirms that the life loss estimate for this structure is valid in terms of its location. This process should be repeated as often +as necessary to confirm that the life loss estimates in structures are reasonable for the various hydraulic scenarios. + +
+ +### Result Tables + +The final way to view results is by table. This is most helpful to clearly see results for various alternatives at once and is the easiest way to export + results for report writing. To see the results table, right click on the already run simulation and select View Results Table. The +Results Table window opens. + +
+ +There are four tabs that each show results in a different way. The first tab shows average results for each alternative and each time of day that was +included in the simulation. This table is most useful when reporting out PAR estimates, the number of structures inundated, average structure depth, +average mobilization rates, and average life loss. + +The Iteration Results table shows you the life loss and economic results for each specific iteration of each alternative and time of day. You can also + generate detailed output from this tab by right clicking on the row you want to obtain detailed output for and clicking Generate Detailed +Output. + +
+ +The EPZ Results table shows iteration results as well but highlights the parameter sampling results (in hours) in addition to the total life loss +results. As you scroll through this table, you can see the sampled relative warning issuance time, sampled hazard communication delay, sampled warning + issuance delay, sampled warning curve, and sampled mobilization curve for each iteration. This provides insight into which parameters drive life +loss. + +
+ +Finally, the Detailed Output Results table shows detailed output results by evacuation group for specific iterations. This table details if a group +received warning, if they mobilized, if they mobilized safely, how quickly they mobilized, which life loss probability zone (low hazard or high +hazard) was used for sampling, what kind of vehicle was used during evacuation, and the various stability thresholds. This provides significant detail + surrounding evacuation and the life loss probability zones, which allows the user to understand why life loss occurred (or why there is little life +loss) for that specific iteration. + +
+ +You can export any of the four tabulated tables into various formats by clicking on the Export Table button (see below). After +clicking on this button, name the file and select the file format. Then click Save. + +
+ +
+ +Following any edits made during the quality control check, you need to rerun all simulations. Once you confirm the new life loss and +economic results, your levee/floodwall LifeSim model is complete. + + (Page is intentionally left blank) + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/05-estimating-consequences-for-dams.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/05-estimating-consequences-for-dams.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..cb601d33e --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/05-estimating-consequences-for-dams.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,1061 @@ +--- +title: "Estimating Consequences for Dams" +--- + +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import Figure from "@site/src/components/Figure"; +import FigReference from "@site/src/components/FigureReference"; +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import TableVertical from "@site/src/components/TableVertical"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; + + + +# Estimating Consequences for Dams + +## Purpose + +This example demonstrates the process for estimating consequences for dam breaches in LifeSim. This chapter focuses on Curwensville Dam located in +Clearfield County, PA. This was originally modeled by the Modeling, Mapping and Consequences (MMC) Production Center of Expertise of the U.S. Army +Corps of Engineers (USACE) in 2022. This chapter walks through developing and importing the needed data and how to choose appropriate warning and +evacuation data for a LifeSim study. + +## Data Requirements + +To take full advantage of LifeSim capabilities, an unsteady Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) dam breach model with a +range of breach and corresponding non-breach events is required. Non-breach events are needed to identify any areas flooded prior to the breach, which + allows you to understand incremental life loss and incremental risk of the dam. Alternatively, the inundation footprint from a breach model time step + just before the breach occurs can be used to identify areas flooded prior to the breach, but for this example the non-breach inundation footprint is +used to identify pre-breach flooding. This example also assumes that both maximum depth grids and inundation boundary polygons for each event have +been created in the HEC-RAS model directory using RAS Mapper. + +The hydraulic events used in the example are shown in the table below. + + + +LifeSim requires a structure inventory that includes the following characteristics at a minimum, (1) a structure occupancy type, (2) a construction +type, (3) the number of stories, and (4) the population within the structure. This example uses the USACE National Structure Inventory (NSI) as the +base dataset for the structure inventory. + +## Input Data and Pre-Processing + +### Study Area Polygon + +The first step in modeling a dam breach in LifeSim is to identify a study area polygon that can be used as a basis for emergency planning zones (EPZ), + the structure inventory boundary, and output polygons. There are several ways to do this, but the most common methods include buffering the maximum +inundation, manually drawing a polygon boundary in GIS software (e.g., ArcGIS Pro or QGIS), or exporting a Geometry Bounding Polygon from RAS Mapper +within HEC-RAS. The RAS Mapper geometry polygon method does not always produce an acceptable study area when there are complex geometries. When using +this method, the output must be checked for areas where inundation is not covered and for gaps within the polygon requiring vertex edits. This example + uses a method of buffering and then simplifying the maximum inundation polygon in ArcGIS Pro. + +Create a map in ArcGIS Pro and use the Add Data button to add the inundation polygon of the maximum breach event. In the +Geoprocessing tools pane, navigate to Analysis Tools > Pairwise Overlay > Pairwise Buffer. Select the maximum inundation polygon as the Input Features + and designate an output shapefile name (it is not recommended to save into the default geodatabase location). The buffer will be set at 1,500 feet. +This allows for (1) a reasonable number of structure points outside the inundation for use in calibration of the inventory and (2) the case that a +larger breach event might be added in the future. The Dissolve Type is set to “Dissolve all output features into a single feature”. Reference the +ArcGIS Pro technical documents for additional information on tool inputs. The tool setup is shown in . + +Once the dissolve is complete, the Simplify Polygon tool is used to reduce the complexity and file size of the buffered polygon for a final study +area, which allows follow-on GIS processes and the LifeSim modeling to run more efficiently. The tool is found by navigating to Cartography Tools > +Generalization in the default Geoprocessing toolboxes. The output of this tool should be your final study area polygon. The simplification tolerance +determines how far the new simplified line can move. A larger number will make a simpler polygon. Make sure this number is less than the original +buffer distance. The inundation boundary can be used as an Input Barrier to ensure than the study area is larger than the inundation. The tool setup +is shown in . + +
+ +Once the simplify polygon tool has been run, the study area is visually checked to look for areas that need to be cleaned up. Several spots had open +areas near the center of the polygon. Those vertices were removed using the Edit ribbon and the Edit Vertices tool. Vertices can be selected and +deleted by right clicking on the selected group and using the option to delete the selected vertices. This is shown in +{"\n"}. There were also several disconnected polygons caused by very small spots of disconnected inundation which +were deleted from the final study area. The edits were saved. shows some of the vertices that were removed. + +
+ +Alternative Methods to Get a Study Area: + +Create a new shapefile and draw a polygon around the maximum inundation. This can be accomplished in the LifeSim map viewer or in ArcGIS, QGIS, or +another GIS software. + +Export the Geometry Bounding Polygon from HEC-RAS/RAS-Mapper. Check and edit the polygon for completeness). + +### Emergency Planning Zones + +EPZs are polygons that allow LifeSim to have different warning and mobilization parameters for different geographic areas and/or for areas that +experience different flooding characteristics (e.g., breach flows and non-breach flows). Depending on the study’s purpose and level of detail there +could be different parameters for different communities or counties. For this example, we will focus our geographic areas on the flood characteristics + only and assume that parameters influenced by emergency response capability and demographic characteristics can be captured by using the default +“unknown” curves in LifeSim. Reference the for additional information regarding the software’s default parameters. + +In a standard dam breach scenario where no detailed information about the communities is known, there are three primary areas that may have different +warning and mobilization characteristics: (1) the area upstream of the dam (or the reservoir), (2) the area that experiences flooding downstream of +the dam prior to (or regardless of) a breach, and (3) the area that is only flooded in the event of a breach. People living near the pool of a +reservoir would typically be more aware of the flood risk than areas downstream and would have more time to mobilize as the reservoir rises, so their +perception of risk is higher. Downstream areas subject to flooding prior to a breach (i.e., spillway flow or non-breach flows from dam releases) may +not necessarily have a higher risk perception, but they would receive flood warnings relative to when spillway flow begins. The non-breach flows rate +of rise would also be more gradual than a breach, meaning they would have more warning time and a higher likelihood of mobilization than areas only +flooded in the event of a breach. + +To simulate this effect in LifeSim, each unique event with different levels of spillway flow needs a unique EPZ polygon because the areas flooded +prior to a breach are different—this is why you need corresponding non-breach events for each of your breach events. If an event has no flooding prior + to the breach, the EPZ only needs two areas: (1) the area upstream in the reservoir and (2) the area downstream. However, this requires the hydraulic + modeling and structure inventory to be adequately calibrated so that no structures are flooded in the corresponding non-breach event (e.g., For the +Top of Active Storage breach scenario to only have two zones, there should be zero inundated damages during the Top of Active Storage non-breach +scenario. Otherwise, the EPZ would need to include the 3 zones identified above.). + +The first step in creating the two zone EPZ is to make a copy of the Study Area and call it “EPZ_NoDoubleWarning”. This is done by right clicking on +the layer name, selecting Data menu near the bottom, and clicking on Export Features. Save the file in a folder, not + in the default geodatabase. The resulting polygon can be split at the dam to create an “In Pool” polygon feature and a “Downstream” polygon feature. +On the Edit ribbon, click on the Split tool, select the polygon, and make a split across the polygon at the dam. Save the edits. + +
+ +A name field is added so that each polygon can be named appropriately. Right click on the layer name to open the Attribute Table, then select +Add Field to bring up the Add Field dialog. Set the field name to Name and the Data Type to Text. When finished, hit the +Save button in the upper right on the Fields ribbon. + +
+ +Next, type in the names of each EPZ. + +
+ +This results in an EPZ that can be used for any events without flooding prior to a breach (in this example, these events are Top of Active Storage +Pool, Security Scenario Pool, and Normal High Pool). + +To make the EPZ shapefiles for the events with flooding prior to breach, the non-breach polygons must be joined with the “EPZ_NoDoubleWarning” file +using the Union tool (not the Merge tool, as that will create overlapping polygons in the process). First, make sure the selections are cleared out. +Navigate to the Union tool in the Geoprocessing toolbox in Analysis Tools > Overlay > Union. Select the “EPZ_NoDoubleWarning” file and the Inundation +Boundary shapefile of the Maximum High Pool Non-Breach scenario as inputs, and name the output feature “EPZ_MHP_DoubleWarning.shp” (again, do not save + in the geodatabase). + +
+ +Once the EPZ has been created, it needs to be modified by merging some areas together and ensuring the EPZ names are correct. Open the attribute table + and zoom the map close to the dam where all three areas come together. Select Polygons to identify which one should be the +Non-Breach EPZ and change the name (“NonBreachEPZ” in the figure below). + +
+ +The rest of the Downstream area can be changed to the Breach EPZ (“BreachEPZ” in the figure below). Next, the two “InPoolEPZs” can be merged together +to make a single in-pool polygon (“InPoolEPZ” in the figure below). Hold control to select both and find the Merge tool in the Edit ribbon. + +
+ +This will leave a single unnamed feature. Right clicking on that feature and selecting Zoom To will identify this feature as two +small, disconnected inundation areas. If needed they could be merged as part of the appropriate breach or non-breach area, but in this example, they +appear to be unrelated to the breach modeling so they can be completely deleted by selecting that row and hitting the Delete button +near the top middle of the Edit ribbon (or by right clicking the row and selecting delete). Once the edits are saved, this should complete the MHP +Double Warning EPZ. The same steps, starting with the Union, must be repeated with the Intermediate High Pool (IHP) non-breach area using +“EPZ_IHP_DoubleWarning” as the Union output file name. + +### Simulation Output Polygons + +LifeSim has the capability to output results aggregated to multiple polygon shapefiles. At a minimum the EPZ polygons can be selected as output +polygons, but for comprehensive understanding and reporting of the results additional polygons are needed. For this example, a polygon will be created + that has the downstream area broken out by milage zones relative to the dam. The zones are 0 to 3 miles, 3 to 7 miles, 7 to 15 miles, 15 to 60 miles, + and over 60 miles. A separate polygon shapefile will be created by selecting and exporting city boundary polygons that are significantly impacted by +the inundation. + +To make the milage reach polygon, start by exporting the “EPZ_NoDoubleWarning” layer as a new shapefile by right clicking on it in the Layers Pane and + navigating to Data > Export Features. Save to a folder and name it “Milage_Reaches.shp”. Next, identify a point along the river three miles +downstream of the dam. This can be done by looking at cross section stations from the RAS geometry, creating points along a river centerline every +mile, or simply by using the measure a path tool in ArcGIS Pro or Google Earth. For this example, the cross sections were exported from RAS Mapper and + included in a Geometry folder in the RAS model data. These are added to the ArcGIS Pro map and labeled with the “River Stat” field. Since the dam is +at river station 185.7, the downstream polygon needs to be split close to 182.7 (3 miles), 178.7 (7 miles), 170.7 (15 miles) and 125.7 (60 miles). +There are no cross sections with these exact river station values, but they are close enough to visually estimate a location to split the polygon. The + cross sections also provide a guide for splitting the polygons perpendicular to the river inundation. To split the polygon, use the +Split tool in the Edit ribbon, select the polygon, and draw the split between stations 182.63 and 182.79 to delineate the first reach + three miles downstream of the dam. + +
+ +Repeat the split at the remaining river stations, then save the edits. Right click on the layer and open the attribute table to assign the correct +names. A first and important step in naming is to rename the “InPoolEPZ” polygon to just say “InPool”. This will become important later in the study, +because if both the Milage Reaches and the EPZ shapefiles are used as output polygons, having two areas with the same name could cause double counting + of results if Excel pivot tables are used to analyze results. Select each row to identify what the name should be. Do not use only numbers and dashes + because most spreadsheets will attempt to convert “3-7” into a date format. Save the edits when complete. + +
+ +The second results output polygon set is a city boundary polygon. A comprehensive set of U.S. city boundaries, or Places as they are called on the +Census.gov website, can be obtained by navigating to the link below and finding the Places 1:500,000 (national) shapefile a little more than halfway +down the page. + + + +Once the file is downloaded and unzipped, load it into the ArcGIS Pro map using the Add Data button. Use the Select by Location tool +in the Map ribbon to select the cities that intersect with the maximum inundation polygon (the MHP Breach in this example). You could intersect it +with the study area, but since that was buffered, it could result in some cities that would have no consequences. + +
+ +Once the selection is complete, right click on the city layer and navigate to Data > Export Features to export the selected features into a new +shapefile called “City_Boundaries.shp”. This results in 79 individual cities, which is more than we want in our simulation outputs since many of them +do not have significant impacts and sorting through that many rows of results creates difficulties in interpreting results. Smaller cities farther +downstream can be removed, as well as cities that are barely touched by the inundation, by selecting individual polygons and using the Delete button +in the Edit ribbon. Another method of removing cities is to run a test simulation in LifeSim, view the results table, and identify any cities that do +not have any life loss. The latter was done for this example and based on those results and user judgement the following nine cities were retained for + the city boundary results output polygon: + +Clearfield, PA + +Curwensville, PA + +Hyde, PA + +Jersey Shore, PA + +Lock Haven, PA + +Milton, PA + +Muncy, PA + +Plymptonville, PA + +South Renevo, PA + +### Structure Inventory + +The Curwensville Dam structure inventory is developed using the USACE NSI dataset. Reference the for additional information on the NSI and/or importing + structure inventories into LifeSim. + +## LifeSim Model Setup + +The subsequent sections will discuss setting up a LifeSim model by importing data and setting EPZ parameters and alternatives. The sections will cover + hydraulic data import, EPZs, structure inventories, creating alternatives, and simulating alternatives. + +### Hydraulic Data + +For estimating life safety consequences, LifeSim requires depths, velocities, and arrival times from unsteady hydraulic modeling. The most common +method of delivering this information into the LifeSim model is through HEC-RAS Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) plan files (Note: Only HEC-RAS versions + 5+ produce the HDF files required by LifeSim). For each hydraulic scenario, the user will need the plan file from HEC-RAS and the terrain files (both + the HDF and the associated Tagged Image Format (TIF) files) so that LifeSim can calculate depths and arrival times. + +Prior to importing data, create a new study by specifying a name and location to save to study data. To import the hydraulic data from HEC-RAS, right +click on Hydraulic Data in the study pane, and select Import from HEC-RAS. + +
+ +From the Import from HEC-RAS window, map to the project’s HEC-RAS Plan(s) Directory by clicking on the button with the three dots. The file directory +selected should contain plan HDF files from HEC-RAS (e.g., PA00003_Curwensvill.p01.hdf). Select the specific HEC-RAS plan you want to import by using +the dropdown next to HEC-RAS Plan. Once selected, the Name of the hydraulic scenario will automatically populate, but the user is able to alter the +Name. If the terrain is inside the HEC-RAS directory Terrain folder it usually auto populates the terrain. If not, map to the project’s HEC-RAS +Terrain File (HDF) by clicking on the button with three dots. Once you have the hydraulic data mapped and selected in the Import from HEC-RAS window, +you can either select Import from RAS or Import from Map. + +
+ +To specify the timing of the hazard being evaluated, in this case dam breach, the user can either import a hydrograph from a specific cross section or + a storage area using the Import from RAS option or select a point on the map to generate a hydrograph using the Import from Map option. This example +uses the Import from Map option for simplicity. Refer to the for guidance on utilizing the Import from RAS option. + +When you select Import from Map, the RAS Map Data Selector window will open. + +
+ +To view a hydrograph along with its hydraulic timing and depths, use the Select Hydrograph Tool in the toolbar (shown below). + +
+ +The RAS Map Data Selector map window will automatically display the 2D areas used in the RAS modeling, the cross sections, the hydraulic animation, +and a base map. The user can change the base map and add data to the map window (e.g., breach locations shapefile, leveed area shapefile, structure +inventory, etc.) by clicking on the Add Data button (see below). + +
+ +Zoom into the area just downstream of the dam and move the animation slider bar to get a clear picture of the inundation. Use the Select +Hydrograph Tool and click in the center channel of the inundation just below the dam to get a hydrograph. + +
+ +Once a representative hydrograph for the hydraulic scenario is loaded, click OK and you will return to the Import from HEC-RAS +window. The window will now display hydraulic timing information as well as the same representative hydrograph. The Hazard Occurrence date and time +should match the time that breach or overtopping (if applicable) begins within the study area. This information can be found in HEC-RAS or the +hydraulic engineer will provide this information. For the Curwensville MH Breach, the breach initiation time is 2/3/2099 at 23:00. The red line is the + hazard occurrence time, and the first 31 feet of depth represents spillway flow. The hydrograph then increases steeply after the breach. Press +OK and the hydraulic scenario will be processed and imported into LifeSim. + +
+ +The user will repeat this process for each of the study’s hydraulic scenarios. For non-breach scenarios, it is recommended to use the same imminent +hazard time used for the corresponding breach scenario. LifeSim interpolates population between the 2am and 2pm time values. Therefore, using +different imminent hazard times for breach and non-breach can cause inconsistencies when calculating incremental consequences by subtracting +non-breach results from breach results. + +### Importing a Structure Inventory + +To import a structure inventory from an existing point shapefile, the user will navigate to the Study pane in their model, right click on +Structure Inventories, and select Import Structures from Shapefile. + +
+ +The user will then be able to either select the Structure Inventory Shapefile from the dropdown, which is available if the shapefile is in the Map +Layers pane of the LifeSim model, or navigate to the shapefile by clicking on the button with the three dots next to the dropdown. Once you match up +your shapefile’s attributes (Import Attributes) with the corresponding LifeSim Required Attributes (an example of matched up attributes using the NSI +is shown in the figure below), click Next at the bottom right. + +
+ +You will then need to match the occupancy types in LifeSim with the occupancy types included in your structure inventory shapefile. If using NSI 2019 +or NSI 2022, the occupancy types will typically exactly match the occupancy type names in LifeSim, but the user should scan through the list to ensure + everything is matched up correctly. If these are mismatched, the depth-damage functions, evacuation parameters, and submergence criteria will not be +correct for that structure, which would impact the accuracy of your economic damages and life loss. If an occupancy type is missing, the user can add +occupancy types or edit the existing occupancy types, which is discussed in the next subsection. + +
+ +After the occupancy types are assigned and reviewed, click Next. The final step for importing the inventory is the Stability Criteria + Assignment. LifeSim has default stability criteria assignments for wood unanchored structures (e.g., mobile homes), wood anchored structures, masonry + structures, and steel structures. For NSI users, you should use the default stability criteria. + +
+ +Reference the for creating new structure criteria rules. Once all structures have been assigned a stability criterion, click Finish. + The inventory will then be imported into LifeSim. + +### Emergency Planning Zones + +The three EPZ shapefiles created in ArcGIS are each imported to the EPZ section of LifeSim. Within a set of EPZs, each zone must be assigned a curve +for Warning Issuance Delay, First Alert Diffusion during daytime and nighttime, and Protective Action Initiation (commonly called mobilization). + +
+ +When conducting a detailed consequence analysis in LifeSim, the analyst would work with local emergency managers and other subject matter experts to +determine the most appropriate curves to select for the entire study area or for specific areas with the study area. However, LifeSim contains generic + “unknown” curves that represent a maximum amount of uncertainty (relative to the other preset curves) regarding EPZ parameters. The unknown warning +diffusion and PAI curves are uniform distributions, so given enough iterations the range of results should provide reasonable upper and lower bounds +of life loss. These unknown parameters are used for most MMC level LifeSim models and are used in this example. Reference the and +for more information on how to develop Warning and Protective Action parameters for your specific impact areas. + +To import an EPZ, right click on Emergency Planning Zones and select Import EPZs From Shapefile. + +
+ +In the Import Emergency Planning Zones window, use the three dots on the upper right to browse to the “EPZ_MHP_DoubleWarning.shp” shapefile that was +created in the prior GIS section. Once selected, fill in the name field with the same name as the shapefile, and in the Emergency Planning Zone Name +Field dropdown menu select the field “Name” which was added to the shapefile in the GIS section. Before proceeding, confirm that there are now three +emergency planning zones named BreachEPZ, InPoolEPZ, and NonBreachEPZ. + +
+ +Each of the three EPZs are now assigned a Warning Issuance Delay curve, a First Alert Curve, and a PAI curve. Each area will have the same assigned +curves for each uncertainty parameter. + +There is a check box for Simulate Traffic (If Applicable). The “if applicable” statement is here because there is also a checkbox in the Alternative +window to either simulate traffic or not simulate traffic for each alternative. Regardless of whether this box in the EPZ editor is checked, the +primary option for simulating evacuation is the one in the Alternative window. + +However, if the Alternative specifies that traffic will be simulated, then the checkbox in the EPZ editor becomes applicable and allows the user to +select specific EPZs in which traffic will be simulated. Traffic can either be simulated in all EPZs or only in certain selected EPZs. For example, in + a dam breach with a very long inundation area traffic might only be a concern in areas close to the dam or in a few large cities. EPZ polygons could +be created specifically for those areas so that the model runs efficiently while still simulating traffic in high-risk areas. Since this is meant to +be a more base-level analysis, the Alternatives will specify that traffic will not be simulated, so the check box in the EPZ editor is not applicable +and can be left checked. + +#### Warning Issuance Delay + +The Warning Issuance Delay is the time it takes from when the emergency managers receive the notification of the imminent hazard to when they issue +the first evacuation order to the public. The preset “Preparedness Unknown” warning issuance delay curve is used in this analysis. Although the range +of possible warning issuance delay possibilities is between 0 minutes and 360 minutes, the most likely outcome is warning issuance 30 minutes after +officials are notified of the flood hazard. + +
+ +#### First Alert Diffusion + +The preset “Preparedness Unknown” warning diffusion curves were used in this analysis. The curves utilize a uniform distribution, and the warning +diffusion curves are sampled during each Monte Carlo iteration in LifeSim. The upper bound of the curve reaches 100% diffusion after 100 minutes, and +the lower bound reaches 100% diffusion after 360 minutes. Note that there is a different diffusion curve for daytime and nighttime. + + + +
+ +#### Protective Action Initiation + +Protective Action Initiation (PAI) is the rate at which PAR takes action after receiving an evacuation order (warning). Unlike the warning diffusion +curves, the PAI “Preparedness Unknown” curve includes a perception element as well. The perception element describes the PAR as being aware of flood +risk (Perception = High) or generally unaware that they are at risk of being flooded (Perception = Low). The “Preparedness Unknown, Perception +Unknown” curve was used in this analysis for all areas. + +
+ +Switch the Emergency Planning Zone dropdown to the NonBreachEPZ and make the same selections that were made for the BreachEPZ; repeat for the +InPoolEPZ, then click OK to close the EPZ editor window. Repeat the Import EPZs from Shapefile process with the +“EPZ_IHP_DoubleWarning” shapefile and the “EPZ_NoDoubleWarning” shapefile using the same uncertainty parameters for each area in each EPZ. + +### Creating Alternatives in LifeSim + +Below the EPZ section of the LifeSim study tree are Road Networks, Destinations, Agricultural Data, and ECAM Data. These sections will be skipped for +this example of a base level study, as they are not utilized on most USACE projects that follow the MMC Standard Operating Procedure (SOP). Therefore, + the next step will be to create alternatives. + +For this study, each breach event will have two alternatives representing different warning ranges. These ranges are referred to as minimal warning +and ample warning and they allow the results to be applied to different potential breach scenarios that may have different opportunity ranges for +observation, development, and warning in relation to the breach initiation. The non-breach events will only have one alternative because only the +areas impacted by breach flows will have different warning conditions. The table below shows the different warning times used in these alternatives. + +:::danger +This table contains cells that span multiple rows or columns. Manually update the React component to properly format the table. +::: + + + +To create the first alternative, right click on Alternatives and select Create New Alternative to bring up the +alternative window. + +
+ +The name for this first alternative will be “MHP_Breach_MinWarn”. Under Input Data Sources, uncheck the box for Simulate Traffic but leave the +Calculate Life Loss box checked. Fill in the remainder of the Input Data Sources box to match the following figure. + +
+ +The lower section of the Alternative Editor allows the user to set different parameters for each EPZ area. For the BreachEPZ, the Imminent Hazard ID +Time is set to a Uniform Distribution of -2 to 0 (i.e., between 2 hours prior to the hazard and the time of hazard occurrence) which represents the +MMC SOP minimal warning case. This value is the time that a breach or other hazard would be identified by someone on site. The Hazard Communication +Delay represents the time it takes for that person to alert local emergency managers or other officials of the hazard and this value is set to a +uniform distribution between 0.1 and 0.5 hours. + +
+ +Note that the green column in the hydrograph represents the potential range of time that a warning could be issued. This not only reflects the two +uniform distributions just entered, but it also reflects uncertainty on the EPZ parameter for the Warning Issuance Delay. This window also shows other + tabs for Evacuation Parameters, Life Loss Probability, Stability Criteria, and Agriculture where additional parameters can be customized, but for a +standard LifeSim model these can be left at the default values. + +Once the BreachEPZ warning values have been entered, use the Emergency Planning Zone dropdown to switch to the InPoolEPZ. For the in-pool area a +single most likely warning time of -72 hours will be used with no uncertainty. The reason for this is not necessarily that the population in this area + will have that much warning, but that the characteristics of the flood caused by a rising reservoir pool are such that we assume the mobilization +rate will be near the upper end of the PAI curve. The early warning time provides a model outcome reflecting that assumption. Also note that it is on +a 24-hour increment, which prevents any potential issues in calculating incremental results caused by population interpolation between daytime and +nighttime. If the warning was on a 12-hour increment, that interpolation could cause a negative incremental PAR result. With a warning that early the +Hazard Communication delay is insignificant, so it is left at the default value of 0. + +
+ +Finally, switch to the NonBreach EPZ and set the same warning (-72 hours) that was used for the in-pool EPZ. A similar assumption of upper-end +mobilization based on flood characteristics applies here; the non-breach flooding is a result of spillway flow from the dam which will typically be +forecasted in advance based on rainfall and inflows and it will occur somewhat gradually as the pool rises above the spillway crest or spillway gates +are incrementally opened. Once this final warning is set, click OK to close the Alternative Editor window. + +To create the additional alternatives, an easy method is to right click on the alternative just created and click Copy. This brings +up a window where the name of the new alternative can be changed. Change the name to “IHP_Breach_MinWarn” to create the next alternative. Right click +on the new alternative and select Edit. Change the hydraulic event to IH Breach and change the EPZ to the “EPZ_IHP_DoubleWarning” +file. Set the same hazard ID time and hazard communication delay for breach, non-breach, and in-pool areas to the same as they were on the MHP +alternative (-2 to 0 hours for breach and -72 hours for non-breach and in-pool). + +
+ +Next, copy existing alternatives (e.g., “IHP_Breach_MinWarn”) to create alternatives for “TAS_Breach_MinWarn”, “SS_Breach_MinWarn”, and +“NH_Breach_MinWarn”. In each alternative, change the hydraulic event to the appropriate breach event (i.e., TAS, SS, or NH) and for each of these +three alternatives change the EPZ to the “EPZ_NoDoubleWarning” selection. There will be no non-breach zone for these runs because there is no +out-of-bank flooding prior to the breach. + +Once the minimal warning scenarios are complete, make copies of each one and replace the “MinWarn” in the name with “AmpleWarn”. + +
+ +The only edit required for each alternative is the Hazard ID time for the breach zone, which is changed to -6 to -2 hours (minimal warning was -2 to 0 + hours). + +
+ +Finally, set up the non-breach alternatives. For this study we will have non-breach alternatives for only the (1) MH Pool, (2) IH Pool, and (3) TAS +Pool. The TAS event should not have any damages as it should be within control levels, but it needs to be simulated to confirm that and identify any +inaccuracies in the hydraulics or structure inventory that need to be corrected. + +Once all the example alternatives are created it should match the figure below. + +
+ +### Creating Simulations + +Simulations are created for testing (e.g., “Test_Sim”) and for each grouping of alternatives (e.g., “MH_Sims”, “IH_Sims”, and “TAS_SS_NH_Sims”; TAS, +SS, and NH alternatives can be run together since they will all use the two zone EPZ). The “TestSim” is created to run the TAS non-breach alternative +and any other alternatives that might be run for testing (e.g., MHP Minimal Warning as the most structures will be inundated in this scenario). This +simulation is helpful for calibrating the structure inventory. As discussed earlier, the TAS non-breach test simulation will help you identify any +structures that are in the river or reservoir. The MHP scenario will help you identify if high life loss structures are accurately placed and/or if +the structure attributes need updating (e.g., a high-rise apartment building only has one floor in the attribute table, which does not allow the PAR +to vertically evacuate in the simulation and may be inflating life loss estimates). + +The MH and IH alternatives get their own simulations so that the EPZ polygons can be used as a reporting polygon; remember the non-breach EPZ polygons + for those events are unique to the MH and IH scenarios. Since the “TestSim” is not for final reporting, the Summary Polygons are less relevent and +the number of iterations can be lower. Name the simulation “TestSim”, select the 2am and 2pm boxes, set the number of iterations to 100 and use the +NoDoubleWarning EPZ as the Summary Polygon. Select the TAS_NonBreach alternative (and any other alternative needed to help with calibration) to run. + +
+ +Next create the “MH_Sims”, “IH_Sims”, and “TAS_SS_NH_Sims” simulations. For the “MH_Sims”, select 2am and 2pm, and use 1000 iterations (more +iterations can be used depending on need and simulation times, 1,000 is a recommended minimum). For the Summary Polygons, select the MHP double +warning EPZ, the Milage Reaches polygon that was created in ArcGIS previously, and the City Boundaries polygon. For Summary Set Name it is important +to use the same names for each simulation (EPZs, Reaches, and Cities) to facilitate analysis of results in a spreadsheet. + +
+ +Once all the example simulations are created, it should match the figure below. + +
+ +## Running the TestSim + +The first Simulation to be run is the TestSim, as this will assist in calibration of the inventory. In theory, the TAS non-breach scenario should be +within channel and have no flood damages. If structures are flooded in this scenario, it means those structures would likely be flooded prior to the +breach in the breach scenario and would not receive any warning within the model. + +Right click on the TestSim and select Run Simulation to simulate the TAS non-breach alternative that was selected. +This simulation may take about 20 minutes or more depending on the computer. Once the simulation is finished, right click on TestSim +and select View Results Tables. + +
+ +The primary output table for the simulation has a row for each Summary area, including totals for the entire summary areas. There are also rows for +each time of day. In this example 15 structures were inundated in the TAS non-breach event and these need to be checked and modified before running +the final simulation sets. + +
+ +## Editing the Structure Inventory Based on Simulation Results + +To edit the structure inventory, right click the study’s structure inventory in the study tree and select Show in Map Window. + +
+ +Switch to the Map Layers tab and add a web imagery layer as shown below. + +
+ +Switch back to the study tree, right click on TestSim under Simulations and select View Results Maps. + +
+ +Check the box next to 14:00 Structure Summary and the rest of the window should populate as follows. + +
+ +Click Send Selected to Map Window in the bottom right to add the selection(s) to the map. In the Map Layers pane, select and move the + structure inventory so it is at the top of the list. Next, right click on the TAS_NonBreach layer and select Properties. Change the +Draw Style to Value, select the Attribute Max_Depth, change the number of bins to 1 and the Minimum to 0.001. Next change both the Line Color and Fill + Color to yellow and change the size to 5. Next, select the Excluded Values category, and uncheck the boxes next to Line Color and Fill Color. When +the changes are made hit Apply and then Close in the bottom right. + +
+ +These map properties create an effect that highlights any structures that were inundated by more than 0.001 feet in the TAS Non-breach simulation. +Four of the structures are on or just upstream of the dam itself. Zooming in it is apparent that these are not structure points that should be +included in the LifeSim model. + +
+ +The problem is addressed by editing the structure inventory. Right click on the inventory and select Edit. + +
+ +Once edit is selected a new toolbar appears on the right side of the map buttons. + +
+ +First the three points on the dam are selected by drawing a box around them. + +
+ +Hit the Delete key on your keyboard to delete the structure points. Directly west of these structure, across the lake, a highlighted +structure point in an empty field can also be selected and deleted. The user can zoom out and scroll downstream to locate the other highlighted points + that were damaged in the TAS non-breach, either deleting points if there are no apparent structures nearby without points or moving them to +structures if possible. It can be helpful to uncheck the structure inventory layer display to help locate the yellow points. Structures can be moved +by left clicking and holding down the button to drag the points to a new location as demonstrated in the figure below. + +
+ +To finish editing, click on the Save button and then click on the Stop Editing button. Note that if saving results +in an error about the number of records not matching, stop editing and remove the inventory from the map layer list, then add it to the display again from + the study tree and verify and re-edit as necessary. + +
+ +Editing the structure points impacted in the TAS Non-breach event represents a minimum level of structure inventory calibration that must be +accomplished to avoid overestimating consequences due to structures not receiving a warning or structures being flooded deeper than they should be. +There are some cases where a structure point is placed correctly but is still flooded due to either terrain inaccuracies or lack of low flow hydraulic + model calibration. In these cases, the user must determine the most efficient and effective resolution which could include steps such as moving +structures to compensate for the inaccuracies, using a double warning approach to ensure the structures get a warning in the model prior to +inundation, or performing additional hydraulic model calibration. Some structure points may need to be moved outside of the structure footprint to +compensate. Common examples of when this may be required are structures on a hillside where the uphill side is at ground level and the downhill side +is raised on blocks or piers and floating structures attached to riverside docks (there are several examples of the latter along the Columbia River). + +Once the TAS non-breach calibration is complete, edit the test simulation to select both the MH Breach Minimal Warning and the TAS Non-Breach +alternatives, then run the simulation with those two alternatives and the inventory edits just completed. This second test will accomplish two important + tasks: (1) it will verify that the TAS Non-breach event does not flood any structures and (2) it will provide the results needed to verify the +attributes and locations of high consequence structures. + +Once the simulation is complete, close the simulation then right click on TestSim and select View Results Tables. It + should look like the figure below where the TAS_NonBreach alternative has zero structures inundated. + +
+ +Close the table, right click on TestSim again, and select View Results Maps. Check the box next to the MHP Breach +MinWarn 14:00 Structure Summary and click Send Selected to Map Window in the bottom right of the window. The map window will now +contain a heat map of the daytime life loss for the MH MinWarn alternative. + +
+ +Life loss at individual structures can be checked by right clicking on the selection and opening the attribute table. Scroll the table halfway across +to the field Life_Loss_Total_Mean, right click on the field name, and select Sort Descending. The first row will now be the structure + with the highest mean life loss. Right click on the row number on the left and select Zoom to Selected to zoom to the structure +area. Repeat the zoom a few more times to zoom to a close view of the structure. + +
+ +Now with the structure inventory displayed on top of the results map, right click on the inventory to open the attribute table. Move and organize both + attribute windows to they can be seen, and then use the Select tool (white arrow) to select the structure with the high life loss. +In the structure attribute table, click on the button to Show Selected Rows Only as shown in the figure below. + +
+ +In this example, a significant portion of the life loss (22%) is occurring in a building with an occupancy type of EDU1, which is a school. The +structure can now be investigated to determine whether the attributes and location are correct. The first obvious issues are that (1) the placement is + incorrect based on the imagery and (2) the NSI lists the school as a single-story structure, while many schools are multiple stories. + +
+ +Scrolling right on the inventory shows that there is a daytime under 65 population of 739, which should be the students and teachers combined. The +structure can be moved based on the imagery, but to check the other attributes the school must be researched on the internet. + +Google Maps and Streetview can typically be used to verify how many stories a building is if street view is available in the area. With a school, the +school website also often has pictures which can be used to count stories. A Google Maps search for Clearfield Area High School will bring the user to + a completely different school location than what is shown in the inventory and in the Mapbox satellite imagery in LifeSim, which poses a unique +problem. + +
+ +It’s helpful to crosscheck the stucture’s location by utilizing an alternate imagery source. LifeSim contains two streaming sources, MapBox and ESRI. +The figure below shows the same area with Mapbox imagery on the left and ESRI imagery on the right. + +
+ +While the ESRI imagery is lower resolution, the school buildings are clearly not there, leading to the possibility that the school has been +demolished. Additional news article searches verified that a new consolidated school was built and the school location in the structure inventory was +the old school. The point can be moved to the new school location found in the Google Maps search, however, an inundation check shows that new +location to be outside of the maximum inundation footprint, so the entire school point can be deleted instead of moved. Right click on the inventory +layer in LifeSim and select Edit, then select the structure point, right click on it, and click Delete Selected +Features. If the school was still operating in its original location, the point would be moved to the school structure and the number of +stories would be changed to 3 stories. + +Next look at the structures with the second highest mean life loss value by selecting that row in the MH_Breach_MinWarn attribute table (with the +descending sort on the Life Loss Total Mean field). Right click on the row to zoom to the structure and it comes up as the Curwensville Area School +District. Open the structure attribute table and select the structure and it will show two structures on the same point, both EDU1 schools. + +
+ +Right click on the inventory layer to edit. First, delete the residential structure points currently on the school or move them to any nearby +residential structures that are missing points. Move the EDU points to the school (they can stay together because there is a high school and middle +school in the same complex). Next perform an internet photo search to find pictures of the school to confirm the number of stories (this area did not +have street view available). Photos show the school to be 2-stories, so change the number of stories. + +
+ +Save the edits and stop the editing session. + +While further edits will not be detailed in this guide, additional calibration can be performed by scrolling along the inundated areas and looking for + visual inventory issues such as misplacement in open fields or points too close to or inside the river itself. Attributes of selected structures can +be edited by opening the attribute table of the structure inventory. Note that typically in dam breaches life loss is higher in areas closer to the +dam due to the arrival time, and high consequence structures in both daytime and nighttime results should be checked and validated. The level of +effort spent in calibrating the inventory depends on the scope and purpose of the study as well as the accuracy of the data used to create the +structure inventory. + +Once all structure edits have been completed, the three non-test simulations can be computed. Once complete, results can be viewed by right clicking +on the simulations and selecting View Results Plots, Tables, or Maps. The results tables can be +copied into Microsoft Excel and analyzed using pivot tables and formulas. Results can be displayed and compared by downstream reaches and city +boundaries; additionally, the IHP and MHP results can be viewed by non-breach and breach EPZs. + +(Page is intentionally left blank) + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/06-modeling-cascading-dam-breaches-in-lifesim.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/06-modeling-cascading-dam-breaches-in-lifesim.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..97d88dc7b --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/06-modeling-cascading-dam-breaches-in-lifesim.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,339 @@ +--- +title: "Modeling Cascading Dam Breaches in LifeSim" +--- + +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import TableVertical from "@site/src/components/TableVertical"; +import Figure from "@site/src/components/Figure"; +import TableReference from "@site/src/components/TableReference"; +import FigReference from "@site/src/components/FigureReference"; + + + +# Modeling Cascading Dam Breaches in LifeSim + +## Purpose + +This chapter demonstrates the process for estimating consequences for a scenario in which multiple dams breach within the same modeling extents. An +example of this is a dam breaching due to extreme inflow from an upstream dam breach. This chapter focuses on a breach at Oahe Dam, located along the +Missouri River in South Dakota, and the other dams located downstream that could breach following a breach at Oahe Dam. + +There are several dams downstream of Oahe Dam that are at risk of a cascading breach. The modeled cascading breaches (originally modeled by the +Modeling, Mapping, and Consequences (MMC) Production Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) in 2022) include three other dams that could +potentially breach: Big Bend Dam (85 miles downstream of Oahe Dam), Fort Randall Dam (192 miles downstream of Oahe Dam), and Gavins Point Dam (261 +miles downstream of Oahe Dam). Since this example assumes there are three dams that breach following the initial Oahe Dam breach, there are multiple +ways to model this scenario in LifeSim. + +This chapter focuses on two options: (1) warning the entire downstream area relative to the Oahe Dam breach and (2) warning the in-pool area, areas +downstream of Oahe Dam, and areas downstream of Big Bend Dam relative to the Oahe Dam breach, as well as warning areas downstream of Fort Randall Dam +and Gavins Point Dam relative to the Fort Randall Dam breach. Another modeling option that is not detailed in this chapter is warning areas +downstream of specific dams relative to specific dam breaches (e.g., Warn the population between Oahe Dam and Big Bend Dam relative to the Oahe Dam +breach, warn the population between Big Bend Dam and Fort Randall Dam relative to the Big Bend Dam breach, etc.). + +## Input Data and Pre-Processing + +The subsequent sections discuss the input data required to calculate damages and life loss for a cascading dam breach. Most of the input data remains +similar to the non-cascading dam LifeSim modeling (see the for more information). The subsequent sections discuss hydraulic data, emergency planning +zones (EPZ), structure inventories, creating alternatives, and simulating alternatives. + +### Hydraulic Data + +Importing hydraulic data for a cascading dam breach follows the same process as importing hydraulic data for a standard dam breach. Although there are + multiple hazard occurrence times (i.e., multiple dam breaches), LifeSim currently only allows the user to select one hazard occurrence time. For +cascading dam breaches, the most upstream dam is often the focus of the dam safety study. To model cascading breaches, it is easiest to select the +hazard occurrence time based on the upstream dam breach, which is Oahe Dam in this example. + +Fort Randall Dam will have a separate breach time, but this will come into play when selecting warning times for the EPZs rather than the hazard +occurrence time (if using Option 2 discussed in the Purpose section). Similarly, for all LifeSim models, the hazard occurrence time is the first step +in the warning and evacuation timeline. The imminent hazard identification times in the alternatives are relative to the hazard occurrence time +selected for each hydraulic scenario. This is discussed in more detail later in the Alternatives section. + +### Structure Inventory + +The structure inventory for a cascading dam breach is the same inventory used for standard hydraulic scenarios (i.e., the breach of only Oahe Dam). +However, if the cascading breaches scenarios are tacked on later in the study/modeling process, the structure inventory may need to be expanded as +these inundation boundaries are larger than those from the Oahe Dam breach alone. If you have the cascading breach inundation boundaries from the +start of the study, it is recommended to use the highest loading breach scenario with cascading breach to select the structure inventory. Including a +buffer on this inundation boundary is recommended to accommodate any changes to the hydraulic model. + +### Emergency Planning Zones + +EPZs are a key input that are likely to differ for a cascading dam breach scenario. There are two EPZ options for this type of event: (1) use the same + double warning EPZ as the standard hydraulic scenario (see the ) and (2) create a new double warning EPZ that includes a separate zone(s) for the +area(s) downstream of a cascading dam breach(es). + +Option 1 is recommended if you believe the entire downstream area would be warned relative to the upstream dam breaching. Option 2 is recommended if +you believe portions of the downstream area would only receive an evacuation order following the breach of a downstream dam (i.e., the population and +emergency managers view the risk of the downstream dam breaching as low; they also believe risk is low following the upstream dam breach). + +For the Missouri River dams downstream of Oahe, it is possible that emergency managers believe Big Bend (85 miles downstream of Oahe Dam) is at higher + risk for breaching since it is within 100 miles of the dam. However, emergency managers in areas downstream of Fort Randall Dam may initially believe + the dam will not breach. They would then send out a warning much closer to when Fort Randall Dam breaches compared to when Oahe Dam breaches. The +rest of this chapter focuses on modeling Option 2 and separating the EPZ at Fort Randall Dam. + +#### Modeling Option 2: Creating a New Double Warning EPZ + +To model the cascading breach following modeling Option 2, you need to first create a double warning EPZ that includes a separate zone for downstream +of Fort Randall Dam. The base shapefile of any cascading breach EPZ is the non-cascading double warning EPZ; the non-breach flows remain the same +between a cascading breach and non-cascading breach. The easiest way to do this is to duplicate the existing double warning EPZ / save the existing +double warning polygon as a new shape. Then, begin an edit session in ArcGIS on the duplicate double warning shapefile, cut the polygon at Fort +Randall Dam, edit the attribute table to include an appropriate name (e.g., FtRandall_Downstream), and save edits. + +
+ +Then, import the new shapefile into LifeSim with an appropriate name; exemplifies different EPZ names, including + an EPZ specifically for modeling Option 2: MHP_breach_casc_FtRandall_Warn. + +
+ +### Alternatives + +Creating and setting up alternatives in LifeSim varies significantly depending on which modeling method you are using. Both modeling options are +detailed in the subsequent sections. + +#### Modeling Option 1: Warning Relative to Oahe Dam Breach + +For Option 1, the cascading dam breach alternative is almost identical to the standard hydraulic scenario. As shown in the figures below, the only +difference in the alternatives is which Hydraulic Event is selected (non-cascading breach, labeled “NC”, versus cascading, labeled “C”, breach). Both +use the Maximum High Pool (MHP) double warning EPZ, the same structure inventory, and the same Imminent Hazard ID Times. + +
+ +
+ +#### Modeling Option 2: Warning Areas Relative to Specific Dam Breaches + +For Option 2, first you need to use the new double warning polygon that was created for the cascading dam breaches. The only difference between the +two EPZs will be that the polygon is cut at the cascading dam (i.e., Fort Randall Dam). The separate zones are necessary in order to include different + Imminent Hazard ID Times relative to 1) Oahe Dam breaching and 2) Fort Randall Dam breaching. + +For Option 2, the key difference is warning the areas downstream of the other dam breach (e.g., Fort Randall Dam) relative to its hazard occurrence +time (i.e., overtopping or breach time). The hydraulic engineer can provide the downstream dam’s breach time and/or overtopping time. Recall, however, + that LifeSim can only have one hazard occurrence time per hydraulic scenario. A cascading dam breach has multiple hazard occurrence times; one for +each dam that overtops/breaches in the scenario. To account for the hazard occurrence time of Fort Randall Dam breaching, the Imminent Hazard ID Time +needs to be calculated to warn areas downstream of Fort Randall Dam relative to when it breaches. To obtain this information, calculate the time +difference (in hours) between the two dams breaching (shown in green in the following table). + +:::danger +This table contains cells that span multiple rows or columns. Manually update the React component to properly format the table. +::: + + + +From here, you can determine the Imminent Hazard ID Times for the various warning scenarios. The following table shows the calculated Imminent Hazard +ID Times for the Downstream of Fort Randall EPZ. The warning times shown below warn the population downstream of Fort Randall Dam between 2 hours +prior to breach and the time of breach (minimal warning) and 6 hours prior to breach to 2 hours prior to breach (ample warning) -- relative to the +time of Fort Randall Dam’s breach initiation. + +:::danger +This table contains cells that span multiple rows or columns. Manually update the React component to properly format the table. +::: + + + +Implementing the warning times from into your alternatives is shown in +and . The figures show the Maximum High Pool cascading breach. As shown in the figures, the “DS_Oahe_Fail” EPZ is + assigned the standard time of -2 to 0 hours. The “DS_FtRandall_Fail” EPZ is assigned the calculated time of +14 to +16 hours. Again, the +14 to +16 +hours is relative to the hazard occurrence, which is Oahe Dam’s breach initiation time. + +If you are unsure of which modeling method to use, implement both methods in the study to understand how the different EPZs impact life loss results. + +
+ +
+ +As previously mentioned, an additional modeling method is to warn the populations separately downstream of each dam (e.g., the EPZ would include a +zone downstream of Oahe Dam, a zone downstream of Big Bend Dam, a zone downstream of Fort Randall Dam, and a zone downstream of Gavins Point dam—each +with imminent hazard ID times calculated based on the respective dam’s breach initiation relative to the Oahe Dam’s breach initiation time.). The +local emergency managers and dam operators may have a general understanding of how they would respond to a breach of an upstream dam, including +if/when they would send out evacuation orders. This type of information can help inform which LifeSim modeling method is most appropriate for your +study’s cascading dam breach scenarios. + +### Simulations + +For both modeling options, creating a simulation and running it follows the same standard practice. Reference the for more detailed information on +creating simulations. The only additional reporting consideration is if you want to include unique summary polygons. For example, it may be +beneficial to summarize results by dam breach area (e.g., one area between Oahe Dam and Fort Randall Dam and another area for everything downstream of + Fort Randall Dam, etc.) If you created new EPZs for the cascading dam breach, these shapefiles may be used as the summary polygon. + + + +(Page intentionally left blank) + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/07-estimating-consequences-for-coastal-infrastructure.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/07-estimating-consequences-for-coastal-infrastructure.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..879dbc61b --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/07-estimating-consequences-for-coastal-infrastructure.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,429 @@ +--- +title: "Estimating Consequences for Coastal Infrastructure" +--- + +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import Figure from "@site/src/components/Figure"; +import FigReference from "@site/src/components/FigureReference"; + + + +# Estimating Consequences for Coastal Infrastructure + +## Purpose + +This example demonstrates the process for estimating consequences for coastal levees, floodwalls, dune and/or seawalls in LifeSim. The general process + is similar to estimating consequences for riverine levees, but there are modeling nuances and warning and evacuation considerations specific to +infrastructure in a coastal environment. This chapter includes step-by-step instructions (often referring to the Levee applications chapter) for importing + the required data into LifeSim, choosing appropriate warning and evacuation data for a study area, and interpreting modeling results. The Coastal +Infrastructure chapter focuses on South Shore Staten Island (SSSI) modeling that was conducted in 2020 by the Risk Management Center to support a +risk-informed design (RID) risk assessment. This RID risk assessment took place after the planning process was complete for the SSSI Coastal Storm +Risk Management planning study. The proposed SSSI Levee includes segments of buried seawalls, levees, and floodwalls. + +## Input Data + +The subsequent sections discuss the input data required to calculate economic damages and life loss for coastal infrastructure in LifeSim. The input +data sections, many of which simply refer to the Estimating Consequences for Levees and Floodwall Chapter, include hydraulic data, emergency planning +zones (EPZ), structure inventories, road networks, destinations, creating alternatives, and simulating alternatives. For reference, +{"\n"} through Figure 155 below show the SSSI levee and seawall breach locations, structure inventory, +and road network and destinations, respectively. Refer to these figures for context regarding later sections in this chapter. + +
+ +Breach Location 1 in the above figure is the Levee Control Location (LCL). This is the lowest section of the proposed levee and will likely overtop +first in most cases. Oceanic wind/wave patterns (discussed further in the ‘Importing HEC-RAS Data’ section), however, can sometimes lead to +overtopping at a different location where levee elevations are higher. Breach Locations 2 and 3 which breach the proposed buried seawall were +selected by the USACE New York District]. These sections of the proposed project were also analyzed for wind/wave-overtopping. + +
+ +
+ +With hurricanes being the assumed source of inundation to coastal levees in the form of storm surge, local emergency managers would likely recommend a + shelter-in-place action to those who were unable to or decided not to evacuate well before this non-evacuation depth occurs. As there is no current +mechanism to stop the evacuation process at a particular time step (i.e., when high wind speeds or significant rainfall prevent mobilization at a time + preceding storm surge landfall), a LifeSim model utilizing evacuation on roads could simulate vehicles on roadways and exposed to inundation when +these last-minute evacuations do not commonly occur. + +### Hydraulic Data + +When using Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) data as LifeSim input, the hydraulic data should be in the form of +Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) files so the user can easily simulate evacuation when necessary. Unlike riverine/inland levees or floodwalls, +simulating evacuation in a coastal environment may not be a critical part of estimating direct life loss. In most cases, life loss on roads in a +coastal context where the source of inundation is most associated with an infrequent storm event (e.g., hurricane) is not expected to be the primary +risk driver. Lead times for these types of events are generally expected to be greater than 24 hours (e.g., hurricane tracking begins several days +prior to the storm reaching landfall). For scenarios where lead times are expected to be relatively short, the option to simulate evacuation is still +available to the user when HDF files are utilized. The HEC-RAS plan HDF file and the HEC-RAS terrain HDF file are needed for each hydraulic scenario +where evacuation is simulated. + +#### Import HEC-RAS Data + +Importing HEC-RAS data for coastal levees or floodwalls is generally the same as described in the Levee applications chapter. It remains important to +understand where and when water is entering the leveed area to best establish the Hazard Occurrence time in LifeSim. For levees in a coastal setting, +the team must be able to distinguish the source of water (i.e., breach flow, rainfall, flanking, or wind/wave-overtopping). If, for example, +wind/wave-overtopping during a storm surge leads to water entering the leveed area prior to a levee or floodwall breach, the time of +wind/wave-overtopping will be set as the Hazard Occurrence time in LifeSim. This should be discussed at length with the team’s hydraulic engineer. + +The figure below shows an example wind/wave-overtopping hydrograph from the SSSI LifeSim model. Note that the Hazard Occurrence time (red dashed line +in ) aligns with the wind/wave combination that led to a peak depth capable of overtopping the levee at the +selected location (red circle in the map window in ). + +
+ +### Emergency Planning Zones + +Refer to the for establishing the EPZ for your coastal infrastructure. It is again recommended to discuss what should be considered the leveed area +with your hydraulic engineer and potentially other team members. + +Multiple EPZs may be required to account for different evacuation assumptions related to hurricane events. For example, consider a situation where +effective evacuation is unlikely and the affected population must shelter-in-place. This would mean the maximum mobilization rate parameter in LifeSim + would be set to 0%, or some other static rate if some amount of shadow evacuation (evacuation without a direct order to do so) is assumed. A new EPZ +will be generated each time the warning and protective action data is customized according to the assumed event (e.g., The user needs 3 EPZs to +account for different mobilization assumptions: one EPZ to show 100% of the population shelters-in-place, one EPZ to show a 10% shadow evacuation, +one EPZ with standard mobilization assumptions). + + below shows the adjusted SSSI shelter-in-place EPZ parameters in the Warning and Protective Action Data Editor. +To access this data editor, right-click the Warning and Protective Action Data subheading just below the ‘Emergency Planning Zones’ +heading in the study tree. Select “Edit Warning and PAI Data”. Under the ‘Protective Action Initiation’ tab of the data editor, +click the green plus sign to add a custom distribution. + +
+ +In the above figure, a deterministic distribution was selected from the dropdown and the table just below.The Time and Initiated fields can be edited. + According to , after 10,000 minutes, 0% of the affected population will have initiated evacuation in the +simulations where this new Shelter-In-Place EPZ is used. If, however, 10% of the affected population has evacuated in previous disasters despite a +shelter-in-place order, change both ‘Initiated’ values to 10 instead of 0. + +#### Using Existing Data to Inform LifeSim Parameters + +Refer to the if using existing consequences elicitation data, the Levee Safety Tool, or Emergency Management Agency Websites to inform LifeSim +parameters. Many counties and major metropolitan areas along the coasts publish evacuation plans for large storm events on their own websites. These +evacuation plans should be considered when selecting warning and evacuation parameters in the EPZ(s) and in the evacuation inputs (if applicable). + +For example, in relation to the SSSI coastal storm study, the New York City official website (NYC.gov) is linked to the site. Here, users can learn +about specific disaster plans in their area. below shows the home page of the NYC Emergency Management website. + +
+ +After scrolling down within the ‘Coastal Storms and Hurricanes’ page depicted in , website users have access to +the information shown in below. + +
+ +Many coastal emergency management websites are organized similarly to . To inform the LifeSim model, it is important + to understand who is receiving the order, what they are being told to do, and when they will be told to do it. ‘Know Your Zone’ (often called +something similar across emergency management sites) is typically the best place to start. Coastal cities or counties usually evacuate by numbered and + color-coded zones based on storm surge, forecasted storm conditions, or wind/wave patterns. below shows an +overview of the Staten Island hurricane evacuation zones. + +Notably, it is currently not recommended to include evacuation centers or shelters as Destination Points in LifeSim. As of 2024, there is no way to +assign a maximum number of persons allowed at a destination point, so this type of assumption likely overestimates the amount of people that could +evacuate to “shelter locations” in LifeSim. Generally, Destination Points are meant to represent egress routes, not final shelter locations. + +
+ +An additional EPZ can be created in which the evacuation zones are delineated. below shows both the general EPZ +in the SSSI LifeSim model map window and the hurricane evacuation zones from the NYC emergency management website. The latter will be used (visually) +to split the general EPZ polygon in GIS software or the LifeSim model. Refer to the for creating and editing an EPZ in GIS software. + +
+ +Understanding the thresholds used to evacuate each zone is the next piece of the puzzle. If, for example, a 2ft storm surge will lead to the +evacuation of Zone 1 (red) nearest the coast, the LifeSim modeler will need to communicate with the team’s hydraulic engineer and decide when this +threshold is reached in the model. The same process will be applied to each zone until the hazard occurs (e.g., breach or overtopping). + +#### Importing an Emergency Planning Zone + +Refer to the for instructions to import an EPZ into LifeSim. + +### Structure Inventory + +To use LifeSim to calculate life loss and/or economic damages, a structure inventory needs to be imported into the study. For levees and floodwalls, +whether in a riverine or coastal setting, the structure inventory should be limited to including structures within the leveed area. Otherwise, it’s +possible that both economic damages and life loss estimates would be inflated due to including structures that are outside of the leveed area. +Additionally, LifeSim will not simulate if any structure points are located outside of the EPZ. The National Levee Database () is a resource that +often includes the estimated leveed area (including coastal structures), which can be downloaded as a shapefile and used in LifeSim. It’s also +recommended to communicate with the hydraulic engineer when establishing a protected/leveed area. + +#### Importing a Structure Inventory + +Refer to the to import a structure inventory into LifeSim. + +#### Editing the Structure Inventory + +Refer to the to edit the structure inventory. Structures attributes, specifically foundation heights and construction types, may need additional +adjustments in a coastal setting. General structure inventory assumptions may be less applicable in these areas. below shows three structures with +foundation heights that needed to be edited in the SSSI LifeSim model. + +
+ +If the NSI base level data lack structure-specific data sources, some values will be generalized across larger areas (e.g., census block or tract). +In the above case, these three structures’ (structures 305, 1575, and 9095) foundation heights were increased from 1.5ft to show that the structures’ +first floors are elevated. Moving inland, the terrain elevation increases in this area, leading to a lower assumed foundation height across the tract. + If the general NSI foundation heights were 1-foot for all three structures where terrain elevation is lower, for example, much lower flood depths +would result in the non-evacuated PAR getting “caught” in their structure and sampled for life loss. Because the structures shown in the figure above +are elevated, it’s possible that the PAR in these structures could safely shelter-in-place and life loss would not be sampled. When foundation height +errors like this example are aggregated across a shoreline, life loss estimates can potentially be inflated. It is important to spend adequate time +adjusting structure attributes, especially in a coastal setting. + +### Simulating Evacuation + +For most riverine or other inland levee projects, evacuation is simulated in LifeSim. In a coastal context, however, evacuation may not be a crucial +element to the LifeSim model. Life loss on roads in a coastal environment where the source of inundation is most associated with a hurricane event is +not expected to be the primary risk driver. Since forecasted lead times before hurricane landfall (or imminent hazard identification time) are +expected to be no less than 24 hours, protective action initiation rates used in the LifeSim modeling are most likely to be the primary risk driver. +This expected lead time prior to the hurricane landfall enables both the warning issuance delay and first alert parameters to sample approximately +100% (i.e., the entire population receives a warning), even when incorporating uncertainty distributions. The sampled protective action initiation +parameter primarily drives the life loss estimates. + +If it is decided for certain scenarios that simulating evacuation is necessary (most often for events with relatively short lead times), a road +network and destination points will need to be imported. Without these two components, it is not possible to simulate evacuation. The recommended +workflow is to begin with importing a road network and then create destination points. + +#### Road Network + +Refer to the to import and edit a road network in LifeSim. + +#### Destination Points + +Refer to the to create, import, and edit destination points in LifeSim. When simulating evacuation to look for potential choke points, reference the +area’s evacuation plans (e.g., zones and routes) when placing destination points. As stated earlier in the chapter, the destination points should not +reflect shelter locations; the points should represent major egress routes that lead to safety. + +### Creating Alternatives + +Refer to the for general information on creating alternatives in LifeSim. However, there are additional considerations when creating alternatives for + a coastal model. Much like with riverine levees, there is a warning and delay continuum the PAR may be subjected to. Given limited time and +resources, it is important to leverage LifeSim in a way that captures a range of possible outcomes. + +Similar to inland levees and floodwalls, the relative hazard identification time should be reflective of the community’s ability to monitor the +project (consider storm conditions), how early the event could be forecasted in advance (usually early for coastal storm events), and the type of +failure mode (e.g., the emergency managers would have little time to identify a rapidly developing breach, so the relative hazard identification time +would be close to the time the hazard occurs). + + 163 shows an example alternative representative of a situation in which either the hazard occurs relatively quickly, or emergency managers have +waited to warn the impacted population (hazard identification between 3 hours prior to its occurrence and 30 minutes after). In the example below, +this warning may be appropriate for a 0.5 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) event as this is a frequent event with potential to impact very few +people. It’s possible the “warning” would only be based on the population self-warning relative to when they see floodwaters. + +
+ +You can create multiple alternatives for each hydraulic scenario with various warning times if there is uncertainty surrounding the relative hazard +identification time. This provides a range of possible life loss outcomes. shows an example using the same +hydraulic event but with more optimistic warning assumptions (hazard identification 24 hours prior to its occurrence). As shown in the hydrograph, the + depths do exceed 4ft, which could result in life threatening flooding. It’s possible that even this frequent of an event would be forecasted in +advance. + +
+ +It is not uncommon for evacuation orders to be given days prior to the event in a coastal environment. shows a far more optimistic, or “optimal”, +warning alternative for the same SSSI hydraulic event depicted in 163 and . + +
+ +If events like the ones being modeled have previously occurred, adjust the alternative parameters to reflect either what happened or what will likely +happen based on lessons learned. After major storm events, city and/or county emergency managers may publish a report outlining specific +recommendations for updates to existing emergency plans; check for these documents when adjusting alternative input parameters in LifeSim. + +### Creating Simulations + +Once you have created alternatives, you need to simulate the alternatives to compute life loss and economic damages results. Refer to the to create +simulations in LifeSim. + +## Understanding and Interpreting Results + +After running simulations, you can view your results in various ways, including by result plots, result tables, and result maps. Each way you view +results is beneficial in understanding your life loss and economic damage results as well as conducting a quality check on your results. It is +unlikely that your first simulation will be your last simulation—edits to the structure inventory, EPZs, road network, and/or destination points may +be needed to obtain accurate and representative results. + +Much like with riverine/inland levees, if multiple warning alternatives were created for a single hydraulic scenario, it is important to compare life +loss estimates across those alternatives. However, when multiple sources of water are present in the model (e.g., breach flow, rainfall, flanking, or +wind/wave-overtopping), as is common with coastal storm studies, life loss estimates may not align intuitively with the hydrologic events. For +example, a 0.002 AEP event may result in higher incremental life loss estimates when compared to the 0.001 AEP event because much of the population +was warned early due to overtopping and evacuated prior to breach. The 0.002 AEP event could also produce less rainfall in the leveed area relative to + the 0.001 AEP again resulting in an earlier warning, ample time to evacuate prior to breach, and thus higher incremental life loss. + +Similarly, when evacuation is being simulated, additional warning time does not always correspond to lower life loss estimates. For example, ample +warning may lead to more people attempting evacuation during extreme conditions causing life loss to occur on roads that may have been avoided by +sheltering-in-place at that point in time. On the other hand, if storm conditions (i.e., high depths and velocities) exceed stability criterion across + many structures in the leveed area, sheltering-in-place may result in the highest life loss estimates. Before these narratives can be deduced and +defended from the LifeSim model, it is important to double-check input parameters and quality check results at the structure level. + +### Post-Simulation Calibration + +Gaining an understanding of how flood depths and flood arrival times interact with each other and structures within the leveed area is a good place to + start. and below break up the SSSI LCL 1ft OT breach inundation area by +depth and arrival time, respectively. + +
+ +
+ +The arrival of two feet of water within the leveed area happens relatively quickly for the event depicted in the figures above. In fact, most of the +leveed area is inundated by at least two feet of water between 30 minutes to 4 hours relative to the hazard (i.e., initial overtopping). Furthermore, +much of this area is inundated by depths exceeding 6 feet. These characteristics would suggest life loss could be spread across much of the leveed +area depending on how the PAR is distributed. shows the spatial distribution of life loss for a minimal warning +(hazard identification 3 hours prior to overtopping to 30 minutes after) LCL 1ft OT breach scenario. + +
+ +In alignment with the depth grid and arrival time grid shown in and , the +estimated life loss is spread out with slightly higher estimates near the center of the leveed area. Now, with an understanding of depths, arrival +times, and where life loss is generally occurring, the modeler should focus on structure specific results. Refer to the for creating and editing +Structure Summary files in LifeSim. shows the Structure Summary Attributes Table for the LCL 1ft OT minimal +warning breach scenario. Many additional attributes were removed from this attributes table to focus on the fields presented in the figure. + +
+ +An understanding of the relationship between each structure’s maximum depth and total mean life loss estimate can help the modeler locate structures +with characteristics (e.g., foundation height and number of stories) that may need manual calibration. Start by sorting ‘Life_Loss_Total_Mean’ from +largest to smallest by double-clicking the header twice, or right-clicking and selecting descending order. Structure 11537 (the first entry of the +table in ) has the highest estimated life loss for this scenario, a foundation height of 3 feet, 1 story, and experiences a maximum depth just below +10 feet. below shows structure 11537 in the LifeSim map window and Google Earth Street View. + +
+ +A closer look shows that this structure has a foundation height less than 3 feet and is actually 2 stories. In this case, life loss could potentially +be overstated given the ability for PAR to vertically evacuate to the second story above the maximum flood depth experienced at this structure. In +this example, if the structure had a foundation height closer to 8 feet due to its proximity to the coast, the number of stories would not +significantly matter because of the maximum depth of 10 feet. PAR within the structure would experience a first-floor depth of about 2 feet and life +loss would be unlikely. However, these types of discrepancies when aggregated throughout the leveed area can greatly impact the total estimated life +loss. + +If evaluating a shelter-in-place alternative, it is important to relate high life loss structures to the corresponding maximum velocities. Refer to +and, again, sort by ‘Life_Loss_Total_Mean.’ Compare maximum depths and velocities to each structure’s stability criteria (e.g., wood-anchored, +masonry, and manufactured). If a structure collapses in over half of the iterations with relatively low depths and velocities, zoom to the structure +like shown in and ensure that the stability criteria match the structure type. Refer to the and for additional + information regarding post-simulation structure inventory calibration. + +The SSSI road network was calibrated in a similar fashion. For more detailed coastal levee risk assessments, LifeSim can be used to estimate +evacuation travel time or potential traffic chokepoints of mobilized PAR. shows the spatial distribution of +estimated life loss on roads for the SSSI study. + +
+ +Refer to the for quality checking the road network after the initial simulation. Once the road network has been calibrated, look for roads with high +mean life loss estimates in relation to the nearest destination points. For the SSSI study, destinations were placed inland just beyond the inundation + (see ). Life loss on roads occurs mostly on smaller access roads located relatively close to the SSSI alignment; several vehicles are caught +evacuating as they attempt to reach freeways and interstates that can handle more traffic on their way to destination points. + +### Applying Results to Risk Assessments + +Life loss estimates can vary greatly across warning alternatives (e.g., a standard hurricane warning of 24 hours prior to the event, an optimal +hurricane warning of at least 3 days prior to the event, and a shelter-in-place scenario with a maximum mobilization rate of 0.) Depending on your +project and your risk assessment, consider which warning scenarios most align with the expected forecasting and monitoring that would occur. +Additionally, it’s possible that you will need to include additional warning alternatives to better understand potential life loss for various +potential failure modes. + +Refer to the for additional information on performing quality control checks of LifeSim results. + +Following any edits made during the quality control check, rerun all simulations. Once you confirm the new life loss and economic +results, your coastal levee or floodwall LifeSim model is complete. + +(Page intentionally left blank) + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/08-estimating-life-loss-in-planning-comparing-alternatives-for-riverine-coastal-flooding.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/08-estimating-life-loss-in-planning-comparing-alternatives-for-riverine-coastal-flooding.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..27922f536 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/08-estimating-life-loss-in-planning-comparing-alternatives-for-riverine-coastal-flooding.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,359 @@ +--- +title: "Estimating Life Loss in Planning: Comparing Alternatives for Riverine & Coastal Flooding" +--- + +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import TableVertical from "@site/src/components/TableVertical"; +import Figure from "@site/src/components/Figure"; +import TableReference from "@site/src/components/TableReference"; + + + +# Estimating Life Loss in Planning: Comparing Alternatives for Riverine & Coastal Flooding + +## Purpose + +This example demonstrates the process for estimating consequences and comparing expected life loss across alternatives for planning studies in +LifeSim. This chapter focuses on the Ala Wai Flood Risk Management General Investigations Study, which is an ongoing Planning study in the U.S. Army +Corps of Engineers (USACE) Honolulu District. The LifeSim model was completed in 2023 by the USACE Omaha District. The Ala Wai LifeSim model compares +life loss results across four different alternatives. Notably, there is no existing infrastructure in the study area. + +For each of the alternatives, the eight flow-frequency events used in the study’s other flood risk management model were imported into LifeSim. The +alternatives included the Future Without-Project (FWOP) condition and three structural alternatives. The structural alternatives’ hydraulic scenarios +represent the Future With-Project (FWP) and do not include breaches in the proposed flood protection infrastructure. + +Reference USACE’s , , and for more information on including life loss estimates in USACE planning studies. + +This LifeSim model was built prior to the Tentatively Selected Plan (TSP) milestone to compare the change in expected life loss and how flood risk +changes. Eventually incremental risk of the TSP will need to be understood, but this phase of the planning study focuses on changes in flood risk +across the final array of alternatives. + +This chapter includes instructions for importing the required data into LifeSim, how to choose appropriate warning and evacuation data for a study +area, and how to interpret modeling results. Additional considerations for LifeSim modeling for planning studies are identified throughout the +chapter. + +## Input Data + +The subsequent sections discuss the input data required to calculate damages and life loss across various alternatives for planning studies. The input + data sections include hydraulic data, emergency planning zones (EPZ), structure inventories, road networks, destinations, creating alternatives, and +simulating alternatives. + +### Hydraulic Data + +The Ala Wai LifeSim model utilized output from the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Ideally, the HEC-RAS inputs should + be in the form of Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) files so the user can easily simulate evacuation in LifeSim. However, summary grids or other output from + other hydraulic models could be utilized in LifeSim (reference the and ). For planning studies, simulating evacuation can help address other +planning objectives or opportunities, such as improving emergency action planning and identifying safe evacuation routes. Including evacuation more +accurately captures potential life loss in structures and life loss on roads. The HEC-RAS plan HDF file and the HEC-RAS terrain HDF file (and terrain +TIF files) are needed for each hydraulic scenario. Reference the for step-by-step instructions on importing hydraulic data from HEC-RAS. + +It is recommended to include all the hydraulic events used in the economic modeling (most likely 8 different flow-frequency events) in the LifeSim +model. Similar to the economic damage modeling typically completed in HEC-FDA, it is critical to understand the potential life loss for events of varying + frequency and magnitude. Eventually, the life loss ranges computed in LifeSim will be used to estimate Expected Annual Life Loss (EALL), similar to +how Expected Annual Damages are computed, either in a spreadsheet or a tool like TotalRisk 1.0 (link to TotalRisk here). The more events included in +the EALL calculation in TotalRisk, the more accurate the EALL is. The resulting EALL is another metric by which planning alternatives can be compared. + Refer to the TotalRisk Application Guide to set up the EALL calculation (link to TR app guide here) + +Below are some of the hydraulic events included in the Ala Wai LifeSim model (FWOP, Alternative 2B, and Alternative A5). As shown in the figure, the +0.5 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), 0.2 AEP, 0.1 AEP, 0.05 AEP, 0.02 AEP, 0.01 AEP, 0.005 AEP, and 0.002 AEP events are included for each +alternative. + +
+ +#### Other Considerations for Hydraulic Data + +For the Ala Wai study area, there are multiple flood sources that flood various areas at different times. It is important to understand the various +timings involved in the flooding when selecting the Hazard Occurrence time. Be consistent in where you select the hydrograph (i.e., For all hydraulic +scenarios, the Hazard Occurrence time represents when out-of-bank flooding begins for the same flood source). Separating your EPZ is further discussed + in the Emergency Planning Zones section below. + +### Emergency Planning Zones + +If your planning study includes levees, coastal structures, and/or dams, reference the EPZ Section in the other Application Guide chapters. For +planning studies, the EPZ shapefile should represent the entire study area. Coordinate with other Project Delivery Team members, especially the +hydraulic engineer and lead planner to ensure your EPZ matches the study area. The LifeSim model should account for the same flooding and structures +as other economic models used in the study, such as Hydraulic Engineering Centers’ Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) or Generation II Coastal +Risk Model (G2CRM). + +Otherwise, the shapefile used for the EPZ should represent the entire study area. Coordinate with other Project Delivery Team members, especially the +hydraulic engineer and lead planner to ensure your EPZ matches the study area. The LifeSim model should account for the same flooding and structures +as other economic models used in the study, such as Hydraulic Engineering Centers’ Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA) or Generation II Coastal +Risk Model (G2CRM). + +Refer to the for examples of what to consider when assigning warning and evacuation parameters in your EPZ(s). + +#### Delineating EPZs + +As mentioned in the Hydraulic Data section, oftentimes there are various flooding sources in planning studies. The various flooding sources may flood +different areas and the flooding may begin at different times. Therefore, each of these areas would have differing hazard occurrence times (i.e., +flooding begins at different times in various parts of the study area.) In LifeSim, each hydraulic scenario can technically only have one Hazard +Occurrence time identified in the Hydraulic Data. However, you can account for various Hazard Occurrence times in the EPZs. By delineating the EPZs +based on flood timing/flood sources, you can warn various areas relative to when specific hazards occur. It is recommended to work with the Project +Delivery Team’s (PDT) hydraulic engineer to better understand the flooding sources and flooding timing across the study area (see the for additional +information). + +##### Ala Wai EPZs + +In the Ala Wai Planning Study there are several flood sources including tidal surge, riverine flooding from the Mānoa Stream, Makiki Stream, Palolo +Streams, and flooding along the Mānoa-Palolo and Ala Wai Canals. Following an analysis of the hydraulic timing and flow, the EPZ was delineated into 4 + zones (see ). This decision was made by both the LifeSim modeler and the PDT’s hydraulic engineer. The delineation of EPZs is critical for study +areas with various flood timings and/or flood sources. Delineating EPZs is the best way to model various warning times for various impact areas and +should generally be done with the team’s hydraulic engineer. + +As shown in the figure below, there are 4 EPZs in the Ala Wai LifeSim model; this EPZ polygon is used for all hydraulic scenarios, including both FWOP + and FWP conditions. They are divided by flood source and hydraulic timing: + +The main flood source in EPZ 1 is the Makiki Stream + +The main flood source in EPZ 2 is tidal surge + +The main flood source in EPZ 3 is the Mānoa Stream + +The main flood source in EPZ 4 is the Palolo Streams + +The difference in hydraulic timing between the four EPZs is generally less than an hour, which may not seem like a large difference, but the flooding +in the study area is quite flashy. Advanced forecasting and early warning are unlikely. The life loss estimates are highly sensitive to the hazard +identification time (i.e., early hazard identification is correlated with lower life loss and late hazard identification is correlated with higher +life loss), which is why delineating the EPZs for Ala Wai based on flood source and flood timing is important. The warning times for each EPZ are +discussed more in the section below. + +
+ +#### Importing an Emergency Planning Zone + +Refer to the and/or the for information on importing EPZs into LifeSim. + +### Structure Inventory + +To use LifeSim to calculate life loss and/or economic damages, a structure inventory needs to be imported into the study. LifeSim will not compute if +any structure points are located outside of the EPZ. + +#### Importing a Structure Inventory + +Refer to the and the for information on importing a structure inventory into LifeSim and editing it. + +### Simulating Evacuation + +Refer to the for how to simulate evacuation. The Simulating Evacuation section covers (1) importing and editing the road network and (2) creating, importing, + and editing the destinations. + +### Creating Alternatives + +Refer to the , the , and/or the for how to create alternatives. + +#### Ala Wai EPZ Imminent Hazard Identification Times + +As discussed in the Ala Wai EPZ section, the LifeSim model utilized 4 different EPZs—all with unique hazard occurrence times (i.e., flooding begins at + different times in each zone) in the alternatives. Since only one hazard occurrence time can be identified for each hydraulic scenario, you need to +utilize various imminent hazard identification times for each zone while creating alternatives. + +To find the various zones’ hazard occurrence times, add your EPZ polygon to the RAS Map Data Selector Map Window. Then, find each zone’s hazard +occurrence times by finding where/when flooding first begins in each EPZ. Then, identify which EPZ’s hazard occurrence time will be the hydraulic +scenario’s hazard occurrence time identified in the hydraulic data. For Ala Wai, EPZ 1 (shown in the following figure) was selected as the “control” +hazard occurrence time for every hydraulic scenario, which means the imminent hazard ID times for EPZs 2, 3, and 4 were relative to EPZ 1’s hazard +occurrence time. The figure below shows the hazard occurrence times for each EPZ and each event for Alternative 2B; the figure also shows where the +Hydrograph Tool pulled the hazard occurrence times for each EPZ (red circles in the figure below). + +
+ + below highlights the various hazard occurrence times in each EPZ for Alternative 2B for the 0.02 AEP, 0.05 AEP, +and 0.01 AEP events. highlights the calculated imminent hazard identification times. + +For the 0.02 AEP and 0.05 AEP events in EPZ 1, a relatively small amount of warning time was given to the public; a uniform distribution of -2 to 0 +hours was used. For the 0.01 AEP event in EPZ 1, the warning time distribution was expanded to potentially give the population more warning; -4 to 0 +hours was used. The same amount of warning time was used for all zones, but zones 2 through 4 were warned relative to EPZ 1’s hazard occurrence time. + +For example, for the 0.05 AEP event, EPZ 2’s hazard occurrence time occurs 1.83 hours prior to EPZ 1’s hazard occurrence time. This indicates + that EPZ 2 needs to be warned 1.83 hours earlier than EPZ 1. The final Imminent Hazard Identification Times (i.e., warning times) used in +the alternatives reflect the difference in hazard occurrence times to ensure each EPZ receives the same amount of warning relative to each zone’s +unique hazard. + +:::danger +This table contains cells that span multiple rows or columns. Manually update the React component to properly format the table. +::: + + + +:::danger +This table contains cells that span multiple rows or columns. Manually update the React component to properly format the table. +::: + + + +### Creating Simulations + +Refer to the for creating simulations, selecting the appropriate options, and running simulations. + +## Understanding and Interpreting Results + +After running simulations, you can view your results in various ways, including by result plots, result tables, and result maps. Each way you view +results helps understand your life loss and economic damage results and quality check your results. It is unlikely that your first simulation will be +your last simulation—edits to the structure inventory, EPZs, road network and/or destination points are frequently needed to obtain accurate and +representative results. + +Refer to the , the , and/or the for understanding results and finalizing the LifeSim model. + +LifeSim utilizes an event-based approach, so there is no annualization across the various flow-frequency events. Use a tool like TotalRisk 1.0 or +another certified annualization tool to produce expected annual life loss values for each alternative. + +(Page intentionally left blank) + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/09-estimating-direct-economic-damages.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/09-estimating-direct-economic-damages.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..32556b973 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/09-estimating-direct-economic-damages.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,276 @@ +--- +title: "Estimating Direct Economic Damages" +--- + +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import Figure from "@site/src/components/Figure"; +import FigureInline from "@site/src/components/FigureInline"; +import FigReference from "@site/src/components/FigureReference"; + + + +# Estimating Direct Economic Damages + +## Purpose + +This example demonstrates the process for estimating economic consequences in LifeSim. This chapter applies to dam and levee safety, planning studies, + and other analyses that focus on economic consequences. This chapter focuses on the Ala Wai Flood Risk Management General Investigations Study, which + is an ongoing Planning study in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Honolulu District. The LifeSim model was modeled in 2023 by the USACE Omaha +District. The Ala Wai LifeSim model compares economic damage results across four different alternatives. + +For each of the alternatives, the eight flow-frequency events used in the study’s economic damage modeling were imported into LifeSim. The +alternatives included the Future Without-Project (FWOP) condition and three structural alternatives. The structural alternatives’ hydraulic scenarios +utilized in LifeSim represent the Future With-Project (FWP) and do not include breaches in the proposed flood protection infrastructure. + +This chapter includes instructions on importing the required data into LifeSim, how to edit structures and occupancy types, and how to interpret +modeling results. Additional considerations for LifeSim modeling for planning studies are identified throughout the chapter. + +## Input Data + +The subsequent sections discuss the input data required to calculate direct economic damages across various alternatives for planning studies. The +input data sections include hydraulic data, structure inventories, creating alternatives, and simulating alternatives. The structure inventory section + includes significant detail on editing and creating structure occupancy types in LifeSim. + +### Hydraulic Data + +The Ala Wai LifeSim model utilized output from the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Ideally, the HEC-RAS inputs should + be in the form of Hierarchical Data Format (HDF) to streamline the process; this is the easiest way to calculate both direct economic damages and +life loss in one LifeSim model. However, summary grids (Reference the ), and other hydraulic models could be utilized in LifeSim (reference the and +). The HEC-RAS plan HDF file and the HEC-RAS terrain HDF file are needed for each hydraulic scenario. Reference the for step-by-step instructions on importing + hydraulic data from HEC-RAS. + +It is recommended to include several hydraulic events (greater than 6 different flow-frequency events) in the LifeSim model. Eventually, the life loss + estimates will be used to estimate Expected Annual Damages (EAD) in a tool like TotalRisk 1.0, and the more hydraulic events included in that +calculation, the more accurate the EAD is. Below are some of the hydraulic events included in the Ala Wai LifeSim model (for the FWOP, Alternative 2B, + and Alternative A5). As shown in the figure, the 0.5 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), 0.2 AEP, 0.1 AEP, 0.05 AEP, 0.02 AEP, 0.01 AEP, 0.005 AEP, +and 0.002 AEP events are included for each alternative. + +
+ +### Emergency Planning Zones + +For calculating only economic damages, an emergency planning zone (EPZ) is not required in the LifeSim model. + +### Structure Inventory + +To calculate economic damages in LifeSim, a structure inventory needs to be imported into the study. There are key additionall things to consider and +edit in the structure inventory to accurately calculate economic damages. The follow sections focus on viewing, editing, and creating occupancy types. + For information on importing a structure inventory, refer to the and . + +#### Creating and Editing Occupancy Types + +When estimating direct economic damages in LifeSim, additional edits to the structure inventory and occupancy types may be needed to allow for more +uncertainty in the economic damage computation. The following sections describe the editable aspects of occupancy types in LifeSim, including the +Depth-Damage Functions (Structure, Content, and Vehicle), Foundation Height Offset, Value Uncertainty (Structure, Content, and Vehicle), Evacuation +Parameters, and Submergence Criteria. Additionally, you can create new occupancy types ( +{"\n"}), copy occupancy types ( +{"\n"}), and delete occupancy +types (). + +To view, edit, and create occupancy types, right click on Occupancy Types under Structure Inventories in the Study +Pane. Select Edit Occupancy Type Data from the options. + +
+ +The Occupancy Type Editor window opens (shown in the figure below) and displays the various attributes associated with the selected occupancy type. +The figure below shows the RES1-1SNB (Residential Structure with 1-Story, No Basement) occupancy type. + +
+ +##### Occupancy Type Depth-Damage Function Uncertainty + +Notably, most of the default structure occupancy types do not include uncertainty in the depth-damage function. The only occupancy types that include +uncertainty are the RES1 occupancy types (as seen in the figure above). The RES1 depth-damage functions (structure and content) are the default +depth-damage functions defined in Economic Guidance Memorandum (EGM) 04-01. All commercial, public, industrial, and the other residential occupancy +types (e.g., manufactured homes, apartment buildings, etc.) do not have uncertainty in the depth-damage functions. However, all existing occupancy +types can be edited to include uncertainty and new occupancy types can be added by the user. + +This example will step through adding uncertainty to the existing EDU1 occupancy type. shows the default +occupancy type for an educational structure with 1-story (EDU1). Although the default depth-damage functions for EDU1 do not include uncertainty, an +uncertainty distribution can be defined by the user for each of the depth-damage functions (Structure, Content, and Vehicle). + +
+ + shows the variety of uncertainty distributions for the depth-damage functions. You can choose from a triangular, +uniform, normal, and lognormal distribution. + +
+ + shows an example of a uniform distribution (minimum % damage and maximum % damage). As shown in the function +plot, there is more uncertainty included in shallower flood depths (the 0ft to 10ft range), with less uncertainty included in the higher depths. It’s +recommended to coordinate with other economists, your reviewers, and/or technical experts on representative uncertainty in the depth-damage functions. + Alternatively, you could utilize other developed depth-damage functions (e.g., from other Corps studies, FEMA curves, or other published depth-damage + functions) and enter the values into LifeSim. + +
+ +#### Variation in Structure Values + +In addition to including an uncertainty distribution to the depth-damage function, uncertainty can be added to the values of each of the damage +categories (Structure, Damage, and Vehicle). As shown in the figure below, you can select the Uncertainty Type for the Structure Value. Note the variation + is a percentage, not a dollar value. This variation percentage will be applied to each structure with the same occupancy type. + + + +
+ +In this example, the user wants to include uncertainty regarding the structure values of all EDU1 structures. A triangular distribution is selected, +and the uncertainty distribution is as follows: -15% as the lower bounds, 0% (no change) as the most likely, and 20% as the upper bounds. For +example, if an EDU1 structure has a defined structure value of $100K, the structure value will be randomly sampled between $85K and $120K—with $100K +being the most likely sampled value. This triangular uncertainty distribution is applied to all EDU1 structure values. + +
+ +#### Foundation Height Offset Uncertainty + +The final uncertainty parameter that can be defined at the occupancy type level is the Foundation Height Offset. Similar to the Variation in Structure + Value uncertainty, you can choose a triangular, normal, or uniform uncertainty distribution (shown in ). +Notably, the defined uncertainty bounds are based on feet, not a percentage of the foundation height. The example uniform distribution below is a +range of -1ft to 1.5ft, which indicates the defined foundation height for each EDU1 structure will sample that offset relative to the defined +foundation height. For example, if an EDU1 structure has a defined foundation height of 2ft, in each iteration, the foundation height would be sampled + as a number between 1ft and 3.5ft. The uncertainty distribution should be informed by either a foundation height sample or by information from real +estate. Justification of the selected distribution and uncertainty bounds needs to be included in any documentation. + +
+ +
+ +An additional consideration: If there are several variations in a single occupancy type, the user may want to create copies of that same occupancy +type, with each having the variable attribute(s) defined . For example, you may need multiple occupancy types for schools. If you have sampled +foundation heights for EDU1 buildings built on slab and sampled foundation heights for EDU1 buildings with basements, this may prompt the user to +create two EDU1 occupancy types (e.g., EDU1-SLAB and EDU1-WithBSNT) to accurately account for the two foundation height samples and include two +different depth-damage functions (i.e., the EDU1-WithBSNT would incur damage at lower flood depths). + +### Creating Alternatives + +After editing your occupancy types and structure inventory, you will create alternatives for each scenario for which you want to calculate economic +damages. For computing only economic damages, relatively simple alternatives are required. As shown in below, +you only need to link the structure inventory and correct hydraulic scenario in the Alternative Editor window. Ensure both the Simulate Traffic and +Calculate Life Loss boxes are unchecked. + +
+ +### Creating Simulations + +Refer to the for creating simulations, selecting the appropriate options, and running simulations. An additional consideration for estimating direct +economic damages is selecting an appropriate Output Summary Polygon. Similar to how HEC-FDA requires a delineation of reaches to accurately account +for uncertainty in the hydraulic data, this should be a consideration in calculating economic damages in LifeSim—especially if the user is going to +use TotalRisk following the LifeSim modeling. The damage reaches polygon should be incorporated into the Simulations by selecting it as the Output +Summary Polygon. + +#### Delineating Reaches + +As stated in , delineating damage reaches is part of the overall study strategy and is an integral part of computing expected annual damages. This is +a step that the user must consider and it is highly recommended to coordinate with the team’s hydraulic engineer. There are several factors to +consider when delineating damage reaches including, but not limited to, the following: + +Existing levees and proposed levees (i.e., existing and proposed levees should have separate damage reaches) + +Flooding sources (i.e., coastal, streams, rivers, etc.) + +Flooding characteristics (i.e., higher depths vs shallow depths; fast velocities vs slow velocities) + +Population centers (i.e., urban vs rural areas) + +Inundation Boundaries (i.e., 0.04 Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) floodplain and 0.01 AEP floodplain) + + includes additional information on delineating damage reaches in Section 3.3. The TotalRisk application guide chapter xx discusses how to use the +LifeSim results by damage reach to accurately incorporate hydraulic uncertainty by reach. + +#### Ala Wai Damage Reaches + +In the Ala Wai Planning Study there are several flood sources including tidal surge; riverine flooding from the Mānoa Stream, Makiki Stream, and the +Palolo Streams; and flooding along the Mānoa-Palolo and Ala Wai Canals. The flooding sources alone indicate several damage reaches are needed for this + study. An additional consideration is if a reach represents the right bank, left bank, or both. The figure below shows each of the Ala Wai reaches +and is color coded to show which bank(s) the reach includes. With all hydraulic, economic, engineering, and planning considerations, the study has a +total of 13 damage reaches. The reaches shown in would then be used as your Summary Output Polygon in all +LifeSim simulations, which allows LifeSim to show results by reach and can be easily used in TotalRisk to estimate expected annual damages (see +TotalRisk Application Guide). + + + +
+ +## Understanding and Interpreting Results + +After running simulations, you can view your results in various ways, including by result plots, result tables, and result maps. Each way you view +results is beneficial to understanding your economic damage results as well as conducting a quality check on your results. It is unlikely that your +first simulation will be your last simulation—edits to the structure inventory are often needed to obtain accurate and representative results. +Reference the for additional information on understanding and interpreting your results. + +The results provided by the LifeSim model are event-based and include uncertainty in the economic damages. However, hydraulic data uncertainty is not +accounted for. To calculate Expected Annual Damages with uncertainty in the hydraulic data, a tool like TotalRisk 1.0 should be utilized. Reference +the TotalRisk Applications Guide for more information; the Flood Risk Management Chapter uses the Ala Wai LifeSim results. This specific chapter of +the TotalRisk Applications Guide discusses how to interpret Expected Annual Damage when using LifeSim economic damage results. + +(Page intentionally left blank) + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/10-using-summary-grids-in-lifesim.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/10-using-summary-grids-in-lifesim.mdx new file mode 100644 index 000000000..540be5672 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/10-using-summary-grids-in-lifesim.mdx @@ -0,0 +1,239 @@ +--- +title: "Using Summary Grids in LifeSim" +--- + +import NavContainer from "@site/src/components/NavContainer"; +import VersionSelector from "@site/src/components/VersionSelector"; +import Link from "@docusaurus/Link"; +import addBaseUrl from "@docusaurus/useBaseUrl"; +import CitationFootnote from "@site/src/components/CitationFootnote"; +import TableVertical from "@site/src/components/TableVertical"; +import Figure from "@site/src/components/Figure"; +import FigureInline from "@site/src/components/FigureInline"; +import FigReference from "@site/src/components/FigureReference"; + + + +# Using Summary Grids in LifeSim + +## Purpose + +This chapter demonstrates the process of using summary grids in LifeSim. Importing summary grids allows LifeSim to bypass the need to calculate, or +pre-process, hydraulic characteristics. The necessary raster files are instead imported directly into the software. This chapter walks through an +example using Clearwater Dam in Piedmont, MO (Little Rock District) and includes step-by-step instructions for importing the required data and making +runs in LifeSim using summary grids where life loss was a necessary consideration. Additional information will be provided throughout the chapter for +cases where only structural or agricultural damages are being considered. + +## Summary Grids Import Overview + +Summary grids can be created using post-processing tools for several different hydraulic modeling programs, not just Hydrologic Engineering Center’s +River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Therefore, this approach can be useful for many LifeSim users. Allowable file types include: + +.tif (tag image file format; an image format used for containing high quality graphics), + +.flt (floating-point grid; holds values for a single numeric measure, a value for each cell in the rectangular grid), + +ESRI Grid (format native to ESRI for storing raster data that defines geographic space as an array of equally sized square cells) + +.vrt (virtual format; use of this format is to group a series of grids that should be associated together) + +See the following table for an overview of hydraulic characteristics represented by different summary grids and their associated LifeSim computes. + +:::danger +This table contains cells that span multiple rows or columns. Manually update the React component to properly format the table. +::: + + + +Note that the maximum depth and maximum velocity grids do not account for hydraulic timing, they simply capture the maximum of the two metrics for any + grid cell over the span of the hydraulic simulation. The approach assumes depth and velocity reach their respective maximums at the same time--which +is not always true--leading to more conservative sampling of the assumed stability criteria for structures in the same cell. If the user were to use +hierarchal data files (.hdf), where the hydraulic output is broken out into specified timesteps, it is possible that depth and velocity for any given +cell may not reach their maximums at the same time. It is likely, however, that differences in life loss due to structure stability outcomes between +the two approaches will be minimal for most studies. + +## Importing Summary Grids for Clearwater Dam + +As shown in , to use summary grids in LifeSim for a consequences analysis where time and evacuation are being considered (i.e., for life loss +computes), you will need a minimum of four summary grids – a maximum depth grid, a maximum velocity grid, an arrival time grid with a depth threshold + of zero feet (i.e., the first arrival of water), and an arrival time grid with an assumed depth threshold that no longer allows for evacuation (i.e., + a non-evacuation depth). + +To start the import process, first right-click on Hydraulic Data in the study pane and select Import from Summary +Grids, as shown in the following figure. + +
+ +The following pop-up window will appear. + +
+ +A maximum depth grid (the first input in ) represents the maximum that occurs in each grid cell over the course +of a hydraulic simulation. Like maximum depth, maximum velocity and maximum D*V represent the greatest velocity and instantaneous D*V that occurred in + each grid cell. Maximum D*V is an important variable for stability criteria. More detailed discussion on this topic can be found in Section 4.3 of +the . As previously mentioned, because the maximum depth, maximum velocity, and maximum D*V grids are not time dependent, LifeSim cannot simulate +evacuation on roads when utilizing only this style of hydraulic data. + +From the Import from Summary Grids window, map to the project’s grids by clicking on the button with the three dots ( +{"\n"}) next to the +Maximum Depth Grid (Required) line. The file directory selected should contain one of the file formats outlined in the Summary Grids +Import Overview section (e.g., .tif, .flt, .vrt,) earlier in the chapter. Repeat this process for the Maximum Velocity Grid, a +required import for life loss estimation. See to view these completed steps for the Clearwater Dam Maximum High +Pool (MHP) breach scenario. Note: When multiple .tif files are used to make up a larger area, a .vrt must be used in LifeSim unless +the user is only interested in a smaller subsection of the study area made up of only the single .tif. + +
+ +The next required input is the Non-Evacuation Arrival Grid. An arrival time grid represents the point in time that flood water of a +given depth reaches each cell. When modeling the evacuation process for life loss, LifeSim assumes that after a given flood depth is reached, +individuals remaining in a structure will no longer be able to evacuate on roads, thus they will remain in the structure and vertically evacuate. In +the Clearwater Dam example, a non-evacuation depth of two feet (this is the standard for USACE) was used in the LifeSim model. + +The last required summary grid input for life loss calculations is the First-Inundated Arrival Grid (i.e., the first arrival of +water, or an arrival grid with a flood depth threshold of zero). shows the selection of all four grids. Note: +Set the Arrival Time Units to match specified output from the post-processing tools. In the case of Clearwater dam, grids were +generated using hour-long timesteps. + + + +
+ +For agricultural computations, duration grids are required to determine damage to crops and replanting potential. Duration grids contain information +about the duration of time that a cell is inundated. Agricultural damage was not considered for Clearwater Dam. + +Before clicking OK and completing the import for the first hydraulic scenario, the user must define the hydrograph. +{"\n"} below shows this section of the Import from Summary Grids window. + +
+ +For analysis scenarios where a hydraulic time series is used, the first hydraulic timestep marks the beginning of the hydraulic input. It has no +bearing on other simulations within LifeSim. For example, warnings and evacuations could begin prior to the first hydraulic timestep, or well after. +The first hydraulic timestep marks the first instance in which the hydraulic inputs interact with other model inputs (i.e., structure inventory) and +subsequently leads to consequences. When importing from HEC-RAS, as described in the dam and levee application chapters, the first hydraulic timestep +will automatically populate. When importing from grids or summary grids, however, the user must define the First Hydraulic Timestep +field shown in . This value can be found in the hydraulic model. + +
+ +The user must also define the hazard occurrence time, as is the case when importing from HEC-RAS. See either the dam and levee application chapters or + Section 5.4 of the for a more detailed discussion on hazard occurrence. below shows an example graph demonstrating the hazard occurrence time in +terms of a downstream flood hydrograph. + +
+ +The hydrograph, or the visual representation of the hydrograph, in the Import from Summary Grids window will have no impact on the +LifeSim calculations. (Note: The hazard occurrence time must be set correctly and will directly impact LifeSim calculations.) A rough + hydrograph must be loosely defined for LifeSim to accept the inputs. This can be achieved by simply creating a second row in the hydrograph table, +specifying a time later in the hydraulic simulation, and adding a value higher than zero as defined in the initial timestep. See +{"\n"} for reference. Again, this artificial hydrograph will not impact the software’s calculations. + +Note that unless a more realistic hydrograph can be defined using output from the original hydraulic model, the artificially defined hydrograph (like +that in ) cannot be used as visual representation of the model output. + +Repeat the above steps for each hydraulic scenario. shows a LifeSim study pane with all imported hydraulic +scenarios for the Clearwater dam study. + +
+ +The remaining model inputs will follow the instructions of the or . Refer to these chapters for information on importing structure inventories, +emergency planning zones (EPZs), creating alternatives and simulations, and understanding your results. + + + +(Page intentionally left blank) + + \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/rmc-bestfit/users-guide/v1.0/04-working-with-rmc-bestfit.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/rmc-bestfit/users-guide/v1.0/04-working-with-rmc-bestfit.mdx index 9b55dfb18..0c7541945 100644 --- a/docs/desktop-applications/rmc-bestfit/users-guide/v1.0/04-working-with-rmc-bestfit.mdx +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/rmc-bestfit/users-guide/v1.0/04-working-with-rmc-bestfit.mdx @@ -300,6 +300,8 @@ calculated and the data is plotted in the **Chronology** and **Frequency** plot '2016', '2017', '2018', + '-', + '-', ], [ '30,122', @@ -331,6 +333,8 @@ calculated and the data is plotted in the **Chronology** and **Frequency** plot '55,982', '34,585', '48,324', + '-', + '-', ], ]} fullWidth={false} diff --git a/docs/desktop-applications/rmc-rfa/users-guide/v1.0/01-preface.mdx b/docs/desktop-applications/rmc-rfa/users-guide/v1.0/01-preface.mdx index dd2cd9310..5237e643f 100644 --- a/docs/desktop-applications/rmc-rfa/users-guide/v1.0/01-preface.mdx +++ b/docs/desktop-applications/rmc-rfa/users-guide/v1.0/01-preface.mdx @@ -24,9 +24,11 @@ platform, including a graphical user interface, data entry capabilities, statist models, stochastic simulation, and results reporting tools. To request a free copy of the software, provide future suggestions, report errors, or request additional information, please contact the developer at: -Haden Smith, P.E. -USACE Risk Management Center -12596 W. Bayaud Ave Suite 400 -Email: [Cole.H.Smith@usace.army.mil](mailto:Cole.H.Smith@usace.army.mil) -Phone: 303-963-4575 +Haden Smith, P.E.
+USACE Risk Management Center
+12596 W. Bayaud Ave, Suite 400
+Lakewood, CO 80228
+**Email:** [Cole.H.Smith@usace.army.mil](mailto:Cole.H.Smith@usace.army.mil)
+**Phone:** 303-963-4575 + diff --git a/docx_converter/main.py b/docx_converter/main.py index 914e100b4..5a45af236 100644 --- a/docx_converter/main.py +++ b/docx_converter/main.py @@ -16,14 +16,14 @@ # ---- Environment Setting ---- # Set to "development" for testing (outputs to temporary location) # Set to "production" for final conversion (outputs directly to docs/ and static/) -environment = "development" # ALWAYS start with "development" to test first! +environment = "production" # ALWAYS start with "development" to test first! # ---- Figure Path Configuration ---- # FIGSRC: File path used in
component src attributes in the generated MDX files. # This path will have figure filenames appended (e.g., "/figures/path/to/figure-1.png"). # Must use forward slashes "/" and match the final location in static/figures/. # Example: "figures/desktop-applications/your-software/users-guide/v1.0" -FIGSRC = r"figures/toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/pipe-service-life/v1.0" +FIGSRC = r"figures/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0" # ---- Navigation Component Configuration ---- # These variables configure the NavContainer component shown at the top of each MDX page. @@ -31,9 +31,9 @@ # NAVTITLE: The display text shown in the navigation link (e.g., "User's Guide") # NAVDOC: Document identifier used to fetch available versions from versionList.json # (e.g., "desktop-applications/your-software/users-guide") -NAVLINK = r"/toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/pipe-service-life" -NAVTITLE = "Internal Erosion Suite" -NAVDOC = r"toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/pipe-service-life" +NAVLINK = r"/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide" +NAVTITLE = "Applications Guide" +NAVDOC = r"desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide" # ---- File Path Configuration ---- # Set these paths for both development and production environments. @@ -41,30 +41,30 @@ if environment == "production": # PRODUCTION ENVIRONMENT - outputs directly to final locations # DOCX_PATH: Full path to the source Word document - DOCX_PATH = r"C:\Technical Documents\RMC-CPD-2023-11 - RMC Pipe Service Life Toolbox.docx" + DOCX_PATH = r"C:\Karen\Repositories\RMC-Software-Documentation\static\source-documents\desktop-applications\lifesim\applications-guide\v1.0\LifeSim_Applications_Guide_Aug2024_kwm_ForConversion.docx" # BIB_PATH: Full path to the bib.json bibliography file - BIB_PATH = r"C:\Git\RMC-Software-Documentation\static\bibliographies\toolbox-technical-manuals\internal-erosion-suite\pipe-service-life\v1.0\bib.json" + BIB_PATH = r"C:\Karen\Repositories\RMC-Software-Documentation\static\bibliographies\desktop-applications\lifesim\applications-guide\v1.0\bib.json" # FIGURES_DIR: Directory where extracted figures will be saved - FIGURES_DIR = r"C:\Git\RMC-Software-Documentation\static\figures\toolbox-technical-manuals\internal-erosion-suite\pipe-service-life\v1.0" + FIGURES_DIR = r"C:\Karen\Repositories\RMC-Software-Documentation\static\figures\desktop-applications\lifesim\applications-guide\v1.0" # MDX_DIR: Directory where generated MDX files will be saved - MDX_DIR = r"C:\Git\RMC-Software-Documentation\docs\toolbox-technical-manuals\internal-erosion-suite\pipe-service-life\v1.0" + MDX_DIR = r"C:\Karen\Repositories\RMC-Software-Documentation\docs\desktop-applications\lifesim\applications-guide\v1.0" else: # DEVELOPMENT ENVIRONMENT - outputs to temporary location for testing # DOCX_PATH: Full path to the source Word document (typically same as production) - DOCX_PATH = r"C:\Technical Documents\RMC-CPD-2023-11 - RMC Pipe Service Life Toolbox.docx" + DOCX_PATH = r"C:\Karen\Repositories\RMC-Software-Documentation\static\source-documents\desktop-applications\lifesim\applications-guide\v1.0\LifeSim_Applications_Guide_Aug2024_kwm_ForConversion.docx" # BIB_PATH: Full path to the bib.json bibliography file (typically same as production) - BIB_PATH = r"C:\Git\RMC-Software-Documentation\static\bibliographies\toolbox-technical-manuals\internal-erosion-suite\pipe-service-life\v1.0\bib.json" + BIB_PATH = r"C:\Karen\Repositories\RMC-Software-Documentation\static\bibliographies\desktop-applications\lifesim\applications-guide\v1.0\bib.json" # FIGURES_DIR: Temporary directory for testing extracted figures - FIGURES_DIR = r"C:\Technical Documents\MDX Conversions\Pipe Service Life\Figures" + FIGURES_DIR = r"C:\ExampleFolder\Example_Project_1\Figures" # MDX_DIR: Temporary directory for testing generated MDX files - MDX_DIR = r"C:\Technical Documents\MDX Conversions\Pipe Service Life\MDX" + MDX_DIR = r"C:\ExampleFolder\Example_Project_1\MDX" # ---- Constants ---- DOCX_PATH = DOCX_PATH diff --git a/src/components/ContentBubble.js b/src/components/ContentBubble.js index 5141b4a30..47c0f6dd3 100644 --- a/src/components/ContentBubble.js +++ b/src/components/ContentBubble.js @@ -46,9 +46,9 @@ const ContentBubble = ({ icon, iconLight, iconDark, IconComponent, doc_location, {doc_name}

{comingSoon && ( -

- Coming soon! -

+ + Coming Soon + )} diff --git a/src/pages/desktop-applications/lifesim.js b/src/pages/desktop-applications/lifesim.js index 2871b7110..50f19edee 100644 --- a/src/pages/desktop-applications/lifesim.js +++ b/src/pages/desktop-applications/lifesim.js @@ -23,6 +23,14 @@ const lifeSimData = [ active: true, draft: false, }, + { + icon: 'img/LifeSim.png', + preserveIconColor: true, + doc_location: 'desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide', + doc_name: 'LifeSim Applications Guide', + active: false, + draft: false, + }, ]; export const lifeSimDocs = lifeSimData; diff --git a/src/theme/Layout/buildNavLinks.js b/src/theme/Layout/buildNavLinks.js index 8fdd9707d..3d92cf53c 100644 --- a/src/theme/Layout/buildNavLinks.js +++ b/src/theme/Layout/buildNavLinks.js @@ -42,6 +42,9 @@ export default function buildNavLinks(useBaseUrl, latestVersions = {}) { const lifeSimValStudiesHref = useBaseUrl( `/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/validation-studies/${latestVersions['desktop-applications/lifesim/validation-studies'] || 'v1.0'}/preface`, ); + const lifeSimAppGuideHref = useBaseUrl( + `/docs/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/${latestVersions['desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide'] || 'v1.0'}/preface`, + ); /* -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- */ @@ -188,6 +191,11 @@ export default function buildNavLinks(useBaseUrl, latestVersions = {}) { text: 'LifeSim Validation Studies', href: lifeSimValStudiesHref, }, + { + id: 'lifesim-applications-guide', + text: 'LifeSim Applications Guide', + href: lifeSimAppGuideHref, + }, ], }, ], diff --git a/static/bibliographies/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/bib.json b/static/bibliographies/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/bib.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..d57a44d82 --- /dev/null +++ b/static/bibliographies/desktop-applications/lifesim/applications-guide/v1.0/bib.json @@ -0,0 +1,273 @@ +[ + { + "citationKey": "AboelataBowles2005", + "entryType": "report", + "author": ["M. Aboelata", "D. S. Bowles"], + "year": 2005, + "title": "LIFESim: A Model for Estimating Dam Failure Life Loss", + "institution": "Institute for Water Resources, US Army Corps of Engineers and Australian National Committee on Large Dams" + }, + { + "citationKey": "Adobe2016", + "entryType": "manual", + "author": ["Adobe Systems Incorporated"], + "year": 2016, + "title": "Adobe Acrobat Reader, products, software, and services", + "institution": "Adobe Systems", + "address": "San Jose, CA", + "url": "https://get.adobe.com/reader/" + }, + { + "citationKey": "ESRI2015", + "entryType": "manual", + "author": ["Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. 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