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<!doctype html>
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## 4. How to do ABM
---
## 4.1 Modelling "steps"
<div style="position:relative; width:800px; height:595px; margin:0 auto;">
<img class="fragment" width="800" height="595" src="assets/images/Activities_def.PNG" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;">
<img class="fragment" width="800" height="595" src="assets/images/Activities_des.PNG" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;">
<img class="fragment" width="800" height="595" src="assets/images/Activities_imp.PNG" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;">
<img class="fragment" width="800" height="595" src="assets/images/Activities_ver.PNG" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;">
<img class="fragment" width="800" height="595" src="assets/images/Activities_val.PNG" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;">
<img class="fragment" width="800" height="595" src="assets/images/Activities_doc.PNG" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;">
</div>
---
## 4.2 Modelling "(mis)steps"
<img src="assets/images/Activities2.PNG" alt="" style="width: 550px; border: none; box-shadow: none; margin-bottom: 0%; background-color: azure;"/>
<a title="Jobi98, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Langsamer_Walzer_Grundschritt_(JPG-Datei).jpg">
<img width="400" alt="Langsamer Walzer Grundschritt (JPG-Datei)" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5d/Langsamer_Walzer_Grundschritt_%28JPG-Datei%29.jpg?20130421104740">
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Langsamer Walzer Grundschritt by Jobi98 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0</span>
</a>
</div>
---
## 4.3 Best practices
---
## 4.3 Best practices
### Version control
<a title="Source: “Piled Higher and Deeper” by Jorge Cham" href="http://www.phdcomics.com" target="_blank">
<img src="https://geo-python-site.readthedocs.io/en/2022.0/_images/version_control_motivation_comics.png" alt="Cartoon about version control" style="width: 350px; border: none; box-shadow: none; margin-bottom: 0%; background-color: azure;"/></a>
</a>
---
## 4.3 Best practices
### Refactoring regularly
<a title="Published on Medium by Cate Lawrence" href="https://medium.com/tech-debt/why-refactoring-is-important-334c9e64a980">
<img src="https://miro.medium.com/v2/da:true/resize:fit:1200/0*YKMu7VUSEzqpi_Ya" alt="Cartoon about refactoring" style="width: 550px; border: none; box-shadow: none; margin-bottom: 0%; background-color: azure;"/>
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Published on Medium by Cate Lawrence</span>
</a>
---
## 4.3 Best practices
### Enforcing modularity
<a title="Source: APRAO" href="https://www.aprao.com/blog/modular-construction" target="_blank"></a>
<img src="https://www.aprao.com/hubfs/QVNIMTE0OTE3NDQ5.jpg" alt="Modular construction" style="width: 550px; border: none; box-shadow: none; margin-bottom: 0%; background-color: azure;"/>
</a>
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Source: APRAO</span>
---
## 4.3 Best practices
### Where to find modules
- [Netlogo's Models Library](https://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/)
- [NetLogo User Community Models](http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/community/index.cgi)
- [NetLogo Modelling Commons](http://modelingcommons.org/)
- [CoMSES Model Library](https://www.comses.net/)
- [NASSA module library](https://archaeology-abm.github.io/NASSA-hub/)
---
## 4.3 Best practices
### Being explorative
<img width="400" alt="Cartoon about exploring alternatives" src="assets/images/ChatGPT Image Oct 25, 2025, 05_19_10 PM.png">
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">ChatGPT Image</span>
---
## 4.3 Best practices
### Documetation: UML diagrams
<a title="Derfel73; Pmerson, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UML_diagrams_overview.svg"><img width="512" alt="UML diagrams overview" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/UML_diagrams_overview.svg/512px-UML_diagrams_overview.svg.png?20161201151843"></a>
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Derfel73; Pmerson, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons</span>
---
## 4.3 Best practices
### Documetation: UML diagrams
<a title="Jvlivs, Copyrighted free use, via Wikimedia Commons" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Restaurant-UML-UC.png"><img width="256" alt="Restaurant-UML-UC" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/48/Restaurant-UML-UC.png?20061214232237"></a>
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Use case diagram. Jvlivs, Copyrighted free use, via Wikimedia Commons</span>
---
## 4.3 Best practices
### Documetation: ODD protocol
<a title="Source: Grimm et al. (2020)" href="https://www.jasss.org/23/2/7.html" target="_blank">
<img src="https://www.jasss.org/23/2/7/Figure3.png" alt="Example of visualisation of ODDs" style="width: 550px; border: none; box-shadow: none; margin-bottom: 0%; background-color: azure;"/>
</a>
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Grimm et al. (2020)</span>
---
## 4.4 Learning resources
## Textbook
<a title="Romanowska, Iza, Colin D. Wren, and Stefani A. Crabtree. 2021. Agent-Based Modeling for Archaeology. Electronic. SFI Press. https://doi.org/10.37911/9781947864382." href="https://www.sfipress.org/books/agent-based-modeling-for-archaeology/" target="_blank">
<img src="https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d420e5d999d0200013d33c3/1627317989462-IAE7BQS6DCVWZDUZ49Q2/Screen+Shot+2021-07-26+at+9.57.13+AM.png?format=1500w" alt="Carrignon et al. 2020 - Fig. 2" style="width: 350px; border: none; box-shadow: none; margin-bottom: 0%;"/>
</a>
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Romanowska, Iza, Colin D. Wren, and Stefani A. Crabtree. 2021. Agent-Based Modeling for Archaeology. Electronic. SFI Press. https://doi.org/10.37911/9781947864382.</span>
---
## 5. Conceptual modelling of processes
<img width="400" src="assets/images/Activities_def.PNG">
<img width="400" src="assets/images/Activities_des.PNG">
---
## 5. Conceptual modelling of processes
### Representation, mechanism and validation
>Given a general topic of interest associated with a specific type of archaeological evidence, we must develop a conceptual model that includes a definition of the minimum features of a phenomenon or system (**representation**), with the aim of its mathematical formalization (**mechanism**). So that it contributes to the answer to one or more research questions or to refute or reformulate a working hypothesis (**validation**).
---
## 5. Conceptual modelling of processes
### Initial step in "formalisation"
<img src="https://github.com/Andros-Spica/modelling-simulation-graphs/blob/main/representation-and-validation/representation-and-validation.png?raw=true" alt="representation and validation in explanatory models in archaeology" style="width: 650px; border: none; box-shadow: none; margin-bottom: 0%; background-color: azure;"/><br>
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Representation and validation in explanatory models in archaeology</span>
---
## 5. Conceptual modelling of processes
### Recommendations
- Consider the maximum number of alternative explanations
- Then select the most plausible
- And then, formalise it by defining the essential elements of the phenomenon
- Keep in mind that the model is a simplification of reality
- And that it should be implemented and explored in simulations
- Start with a simple model, coming from your first informed intuition, and then add complexity as needed
---
## 5.1. Considering archaeological evidence and its interpretations (*explanations*)
## Key concepts
- Evidence: the physical remains or data that archaeologists uncover
- Phenomenon: the pattern or process inferred from the evidence
- Mechanism: the causal explanation of why the phenomenon occurred
---
## 5.1. Considering archaeological evidence and its interpretations (*explanations*)
## Examples
<img src="assets/images/arch-explanations-table-extract.png" alt="arch-explanations-table-extract" style="width: 450px; border: none; box-shadow: none; margin-bottom: 0%; background-color: azure;"/><br>
<br>
<span style="font-size:small; text-align: right;">Examples of archaeological evidence and its interpretations (see more in the guide)</span>
---
## 5.1 Considering archaeological evidence and its interpretations (*explanations*)
## Three paths to formalisation
- **Path 1**: From evidence to phenomenon to mechanism
- **Path 2**: From phenomenon to evidence and mechanism
- **Path 3**: From mechanism to evidence and phenomenon
No shortcuts: prior (domain) knowledge is essential
---
## 5.2 Diagraming for simulation modelling
## Graphs and networks
Graphs are a powerful tool for representing complex systems.
They can be used to represent:
- the structure of a system, the flow of information, or the flow of resources
- the dynamics of a system, the interactions between agents, or the evolution of a system over time
- the spatial structure of a system, the location of agents, or the movement of agents
- the temporal structure of a system, the timing of events, or the duration of events
Keep in mind UML types of diagrams, for inspiration and guidance
---
## 5.2 Diagraming for simulation modelling
<a title="Adoption_CLD.gif:Apdevries at en.wikipedia derivative work: Blleininger, CC BY-SA 3.0 <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/>, via Wikimedia Commons" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Adoption_CLD.svg"><img width="400px" alt="Adoption CLD" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ea/Adoption_CLD.svg/512px-Adoption_CLD.svg.png?20100626011908"></a>
<a title="The original uploader was Apdevries at English Wikipedia., CC BY-SA 3.0 <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/>, via Wikimedia Commons" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Adoption_SFD.png"><img width="300px" alt="Adoption SFD" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Adoption_SFD.png?20140810144917"></a>
[Causal diagrams and "stocks and flows" or Forrester diagrams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics): helpful in relating the change of aggregate variables (stocks) to parameters and other variables (flows).
---
## 5.2 Diagraming for simulation modelling
<a title="svg by Booyabazookaoriginal png by Wapcaplet, CC BY-SA 3.0 <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/>, via Wikimedia Commons" href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:LampFlowchart.svg"><img width="200px" alt="A simple flowchart for troubleshooting a broken lamp." src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/91/LampFlowchart.svg/256px-LampFlowchart.svg.png?20220918192641"></a>
[Flowcharts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flowchart): useful for representing flows of logic governed by a predetermined structure, especially when conditionals are involved (e.g. decision-making). In agent-based models, they can be used to represent modular *processes*
---
## 5.3 Designing an explanatory mechanism
- **not** a "recipe" for a full-developed model, but a **guide** to the model design process
- the most important step in the modelling process
- skill that improves with practice
- be careful when using "standard" models; they may not be appropriate as-is for your case study
---
## 6. Example: Settlement size, population and migration
(Path 2: from phenomenon to evidence and mechanism)
---
## 6.1 Starting simple
### initial postulate/hypothesis
>the increase in the built-up area of an archaeological site, which we assumed to be a settlement, is explained by population growth due to migratory influx.
---
## 6.1 Starting simple
### Cases or scenarios
>↑ immigration → ↑ population → ↑ settlement size
>↓ immigration → ↓ population → ↓ settlement size
---
## 6.1 Starting simple
### graphing causality
---
## 6.1 Starting simple
### algebraic representation
>settlementSize = *f*(population) = *f*( *g*(immigration) )
or
>settlementSize = *f*(population)
>population = *g*(immigration)
where *f* and *g* are functions, yet to be defined.
---
## 6.1 Starting simple
### reading our formalisation
(equations)
>Settlement size (variable) is a function (depends on) population (variable).
>Population (variable) is a function (depends on) immigration (variable).
(causal graph)
>Settlement size (variable) is a function (depends on) population (variable) as a positive term (+).
>Population (variable) is a function (depends on) immigration (variable) as a positive term (+).
---
## 6.2 Towards a balance between representation and complexity
- Do you think this is a satisfactory description of our explanation?
- Does it leave out something we implicitly assumed with our first informal explanation?
- Is it going too far, stating something that we did not intend in the first place?
criteria: **logic** and **contextual knowledge**
---
## 6.2 Towards a balance between representation and complexity
### Unit conversion
>settlementSize = *f*(areaPerInhabitant * population)
---
## 6.2 Towards a balance between representation and complexity
### Initial conditions and time
>population = *g*(**initialPopulation**, immigration)
>settlementSize = *f*(areaPerInhabitant * population, **time**)
>population = *g*(initialPopulation, immigration, **time**)
>settlementSize = *f*(population, **time**)
>population = *g*(initialPopulation, immigration, **time**)
>immigration = *h*(immigrationRate, **time**)
---
## 6.2 Towards a balance between representation and complexity
### Updating the causal graph
<img src="assets/images/conceptual-model-example-2.png" width="400">
<br>
<span style="font-size: 0.6em">Conceptual model after adding a few parameters</span>
---
## 6.2 Towards a balance between representation and complexity
### Rationale for increasing complexity
- **Logic**: we need to be able to express the phenomenon we are interested in. (want to)
- **Contextual knowledge**: we need to be able to express the phenomenon in a way that is consistent with our knowledge of the world. (can do)
>Variable: it varies with time. It is part of the object of interest and its dynamics are interpreted as outputs of the phenomenon (≈model).
>Parameter: it does not vary with time, but it can vary between instances of the phenomenon (≈simulation runs). It is considered as an input of the phenomenon (≈model).
---
## 6.3 Reusing consolidated structures
<img src="assets/images/conceptual-model-example-3.png" width="400">
<br>
<span style="font-size: 0.6em">Conceptual model after structure duplication</span>
---
## 6.4 Adding feedback loops
<img src="assets/images/conceptual-model-example-4.png" width="400">
<br>
<span style="font-size: 0.6em">Conceptual model after adding a two-variable feedback loop</span>
><small>Population (variable) is a function (depends on) emigration (variable) as a negative term (-).</small>
><small>Emigration (variable) is a function (depends on) population (variable) as a positive term (+).</small>
---
## 6.4 Adding feedback loops
<img src="assets/images/conceptual-model-example-5.png" width="400">
<br>
<span style="font-size: 0.6em">Conceptual model after adding a one-variable feedback loop</span>
><small>population = naturalGrowthRate * population + immigrationRate - emmigrationRate * population</small>
><small>settlementSize = areaPerInhabitant * population</small>
---
## 6.5 Expressing conditions as logic bifurcations
1. The political relationship between this and neighbours (friendly/hostile)
2. The general state of prosperity in the settlement (e.g. a combined factor of subsistence, well-being and raw material availability), summarised with a binary classification between *good* and *bad* times.
> IF friendly AND good times THEN [...]
> IF friendly AND bad times THEN [...]
> IF hostile AND good times THEN [...]
> IF hostile AND bad times THEN [...]
The logic bifurcations are not part of the causal graph, but the model's logic.
---
## 6.5 Expressing conditions as logic bifurcations
<img src="assets/images/conceptual-model-example-6.png" width="500">
<br>
<span style="font-size: 0.6em">Conceptual model after adding <b>one</b> logic bifurcation</span>
---
## 6.5 Expressing conditions as logic bifurcations
<img src="assets/images/conceptual-model-example-7.png" width="800">
<br>
<span style="font-size: 0.6em">Conceptual model after adding <b>two</b> logic bifurcations</span>
---
## 6.6 Representing distributed and social mechanisms
<img src="assets/images/conceptual-model-example-8.png" width="200">
<br>
<span style="font-size: 0.6em">Conceptual model after conversion to agent-based</span>
---
## 6.6 Representing distributed and social mechanisms
<img src="assets/images/conceptual-model-example-9.png" width="400">
<br>
<span style="font-size: 0.6em">a tentative "reproduce" process</span>
Thinking modularly is a good way to keep the model simple and manageable.
---
## 7. Your turn!
(individual or group work)
- Pen and paper or your preferred sketching digital platform (tablet, laptop).
- A subject of interest in archaeology, preferably familiar to you
- Or a model that has been explained verbally, but never formalised (e.g. paper)
Remember:
>explanation here means that evidence is associated with a phenomenon, a process, and a mechanism (i.e., causal relationships).
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<i>Introduction<br>Cologne, 27th October 2025</i>
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<b>Agent-based modelling for archaeologists<br>Angourakis</b>
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